Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[SpackleFrog]

Second ref coming up then... maybe LOLZ

Nah. No way that gets a majority in Parliament.

 

[Ted Striker]

I thought it was a pretty good speech tbh Pretty cutting questions though

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Have I got this right; May wants them to approve her deal after comprehensively rejecting it three times already, and if they do approve it then MPs can have a vote on whether we can have another referendum on leaving the EU, and should that happen and we vote leave again her deal kicks in, if we vote stay then the whole thing is quietly dropped?

 

[Drarok]

Can't she just take one for the team, announce that it's completely untenable, cancel the whole fucking mess, and step down? C'mon May, you can do it!

 

[Wilf]

Nah. No way that gets a majority in Parliament.

Yeah, even though there's probably still a remain majority in parliament, relatively few of them would find a way to vote for it after 3 years. Only way they could be re-emboldened would be if the something happened in the vote this week that allowed the remainers to claim a tenuous victory. Interestingly in the yougov poll quoted with 9000 respondents, Brexit got 34, whereas Lib+Green+Chunks was 31%. A further remainwards squeeze on the Labour vote might make this interesting.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting that whether Brexit or L/G/C gets most can be interpreted as a win for either side. It doesn't factor in Lab and Con votes for a kick off. However those figures are certainly going to be gamed.

 

[Pickman's model]

Second ref coming up then... maybe LOLZ

Lots of leave zombies?

 

[Pickman's model]

She's a card, isn't she.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I thought it was a pretty good speech tbh

She's had lots of practice with it.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Interestingly in the yougov poll quoted with 9000 respondents, Brexit got 34, whereas Lib+Green+Chunks was 31%. A further remainwards squeeze on the Labour vote might make this interesting.

Survation, which tends to be more accurate than yougov, puts the 'very leave' vote (Brexit/UKIP) on 33%, and the 'very remain' vote (LibDem/Green/SNP/PC & Chuckle UK) on only 24%.

ETA - 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia

 

[Poi E]

Given the EU vote discrepancy between the constituent nations, it would be useful if the media would break down projections against the nations' respective votes. The whole London media "UK-wide" focus is a symptom of the rot at the heart of the union.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Given the EU vote discrepancy between the constituent nations, it would be useful if the media would break down projections against the nations' respective votes. The whole London media "UK-wide" focus is a symptom of the rot at the heart of the union.

Polls don't come cheap, and as they tend to be commissioned by large UK wide media outlets, most will tend to be UK wide polls.

Although there's a few for Scotland, Wales & NI, which will be reported mainly by media in those nationss, you can view them on wikipedia -
2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia

 

[elbows]

Has PM's 'new deal' made things worse?

Of course, the vote itself on this bundle of measures won't be for at least a week - a lifetime in this hyper-speed world. A lot could change.

Hyper-speed my arse! The fucking thing has been dragging on with no positive momentum for what feels like forever. Lauras job means she can get giddy about every shift in detail and every backstab, but from the outside of this bubble this hyper-speed line is a complete joke.

 

[Kaka Tim]

may gearing up for one more parliamentary wet fart before shuffling off.

 

[Humberto]

They don't seem to want to accept responsibility. They take control only so far as it is advantageous. Ignore you and impose savage austerity? Not a problem. Contribute to wars and choose what money is spent on in decades to come in some instances? Simple enough. But show leadership and competence when it is needed? They can't. They can't manage a real and honest debate. Almost as if the state is self-serving and lacking agility, or that important decisions are made (or might as well be) off the cuff or by default.

 

[not-bono-ever]

I am warming to the Theresa.Its not often you see a politican ensuring that they are utterly unemployable in any role whatsoever after they leave the house.That takes real commitment. I see a role for her in site manging the grand South Atlantic project.imagine waking up in your frozen nissen hut every single day, climbing out of your dank sealskin cot, scoffing some blubber and having to go into the field to motivate the massed hordes of former peoples to even greater heights of productivity. forever.

 

[elbows]

I thought I was done with my little hyper-speed rant but then I started thinking about how even Mays termination has been done in hyper-slow-motion. Rather than cutting her political head off, its been done one limb at a time. Dance like you're shedding limbs, Theresa.

 

[elbows]

Mind you her prolonged demise does grant her some accolades. You dont normally get to lose so many critical votes and yet stagger on. Likewise avalanches of cabinet resignations. This wont win her a survival accolade because politically she obviously wont survive. More likely a stubborn zombie award. Serial loser bot rot.

 

[Ming]

I wonder if they’re dragging it out to give their financial backers enough time to position themselves in the markets properly for the Armageddon phase?

 

[Badgers]

She is giving it another try

Bless her. It is like your nan wanting to go to Happy Eater

 

[Artaxerxes]

I am warming to the Theresa.Its not often you see a politican ensuring that they are utterly unemployable in any role whatsoever after they leave the house.That takes real commitment. I see a role for her in site manging the grand South Atlantic project.imagine waking up in your frozen nissen hut every single day, climbing out of your dank sealskin cot, scoffing some blubber and having to go into the field to motivate the massed hordes of former peoples to even greater heights of productivity. forever.

Theresa is the greatest enemy the Tory party has ever dealt with.

Absolute legend.

 

[Pickman's model]

She is giving it another try

Bless her. It is like your nan wanting to go to Happy Eater

It's wicked to mock the afflicted

 

[Pickman's model]

I am warming to the Theresa.Its not often you see a politican ensuring that they are utterly unemployable in any role whatsoever after they leave the house.That takes real commitment. I see a role for her in site manging the grand South Atlantic project.imagine waking up in your frozen nissen hut every single day, climbing out of your dank sealskin cot, scoffing some blubber and having to go into the field to motivate the massed hordes of former peoples to even greater heights of productivity. forever.

She will be in charge of labour relations on east falkland

 

[MrCurry]

I wonder if they’re dragging it out to give their financial backers enough time to position themselves in the markets properly for the Armageddon phase?

It definitely seems like there’s some underlying motivation for the whole thing being delayed as far as possible. It’s like Teresa May was put into bat to simply kick the can down the road as far as possible, as each time there was a choice to be made she seems to have chosen the most likely route towards stalemate.

Maybe they just want to spin it out to the point where a second referendum becomes defensible on the basis that “public opinion seems to have changed” or somesuch? To pull that off, May would have to appear dead set against a second referendum each time the suggestion comes up, which she has.

 

[teqniq]

apparently she's not well.

 

[Pickman's model]

It definitely seems like there’s some underlying motivation for the whole thing being delayed as far as possible. It’s like Teresa May was put into bat to simply kick the can down the road as far as possible, as each time there was a choice to be made she seems to have chosen the most likely route towards stalemate.

Maybe they just want to spin it out to the point where a second referendum becomes defensible on the basis that “public opinion seems to have changed” or somesuch? To pull that off, May would have to appear dead set against a second referendum each time the suggestion comes up, which she has.

I said some years ago I thought time would be argued to have eroded the force behind the narrow victory of 2016. Didn't think it would take so long mind

 

[not a trot]

So if May fucks off and she's replaced by Johnson, what's to stop him suspending parliament and just sitting it out beyond 31st oct. Can the cunt actually do that ?

 

[SpackleFrog]

So if May fucks off and she's replaced by Johnson, what's to stop him suspending parliament and just sitting it out beyond 31st oct. Can the cunt actually do that ?

Yes he could, but he wouldn't, and it would end up in court.

 

[prunus]

apparently she's not well.

Illustrates part of why all routes lead to clusterfuck whatever happens - to [at least a section of*] leavers, everyone’s an enemy. It’s going to take a political genius to get us out of this - and there aren’t many on the horizon.

Revoke and remain looks like being the best path - whatever happens from here large sections of the population are going to be furious, but at least that way we’re furious but not fucked.

* it seems to me at least a fairly large section - it appears to be Farage’s main campaigning thrust - “your Shangri-la is being denied you by [insert bogeyman of choice at the time, probably including the word elite]”

 

[Pickman's model]

Illustrates part of why all routes lead to clusterfuck whatever happens - to [at least a section of*] leavers, everyone’s an enemy. It’s going to take a political genius to get us out of this - and there aren’t many on the horizon.

Revoke and remain looks like being the best path - whatever happens from here large sections of the population are going to be furious, but at least that way we’re furious but not fucked.

* it seems to me at least a fairly large section - it appears to be Farage’s main campaigning thrust - “your Shangri-la is being denied you by [insert bogeyman of choice at the time, probably including the word elite]”

i thought our shangri-la was denied us by the withdrawal from everything east of suez about 50 years ago.

 

[andysays]

i thought our shangri-la was denied us by the withdrawal from everything east of suez about 50 years ago.

We're certainly not the leaders of the pack since then...