Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Supine]

Moving back on to Brexit (dunno why really) but May hasn't made any kind of public statement since Bercow's ruling has she? Will she say anything before PMQ's tomorrow? Is she definitely alive?

When she stops swearing they'll let her speak again

 

[Brainaddict]

Totally appreciate that all of that. But when Corbyn was elected, and then when he was challenged, people flooded into the Labour Party. They haven't then got organised inside the Labour Party, or at least not to do anything beyond vague 'vote labour' electoralism.

Funny thing to say, but perhaps it depends where you are. In London where many councils are guaranteed to be Labour the emphasis isn't on elections so much as overthrowing the right wingers in control at local level. It's a long and bloody battle and people are definitely organised to do it. Also lots of stuff of being organised like this: to try to develop ideas among the grassroots.

You may think none of that is worth doing - or you may, like me, think the Labour hierarchy is too toxic to touch with a bargepole - but to say new lefty members aren't organised inside the Labour Party isn't true in London.

 

[Pickman's model]

Funny thing to say, but perhaps it depends where you are. In London where many councils are guaranteed to be Labour the emphasis isn't on elections so much as overthrowing the right wingers in control at local level. It's a long and bloody battle and people are definitely organised to do it. Also lots of stuff of being organised like this: to try to develop ideas among the grassroots.

You may think none of that is worth doing - or you may, like me, think the Labour hierarchy is too toxic to touch with a bargepole - but to say people aren't organised inside the Labour Party isn't true in London.

soz can you show me any example of anyone seeking to overthrow the right wing in city hall?

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

When she stops swearing they'll let her speak again

 

[SpackleFrog]

Funny thing to say, but perhaps it depends where you are. In London where many councils are guaranteed to be Labour the emphasis isn't on elections so much as overthrowing the right wingers in control at local level. It's a long and bloody battle and people are definitely organised to do it. Also lots of stuff of being organised like this: to try to develop ideas among the grassroots.

You may think none of that is worth doing - or you may, like me, think the Labour hierarchy is too toxic to touch with a bargepole - but to say new lefty members aren't organised inside the Labour Party isn't true in London.

Yeah that's a fair point - even where there are struggles going on to turf out the right wing though they're conducted internally from what I can see, and not turning outwards to build community support. In Sheffield there are attempts to do this but it's all very internal/behind the scenes.

 

[Ranbay]

 

[SpineyNorman]

Stop with the hyperbole. Capital will royally fuck all kinds of regulations protecting all kinds of things and taxation (and hence the welfare state) will be slashed to the bone as soon as they can post Brexit.

Why are the Tory establishment pro remain if brexit opens up all these opportunities for their toryism? Or are you the conspiraloon who thinks they're all secretly pro brexit?

Once more with the naive faith in the institutionally neoliberal EU to protect us from neoliberalism.

 

[Yossarian]

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Why are the Tory establishment pro remain if brexit opens up all these opportunities for their toryism? Or are you the conspiraloon who thinks they're all secretly pro brexit?

Once more with the naive faith in the institutionally neoliberal EU to protect us from neoliberalism.

The two positions are not mutually exclusive. Most capitalist interests favour remain to smooth the flow of capital, but if brexit happens, while certain possibilities that they would like may be closed down, others open up. As is often mentioned here, the post-war settlement both in the UK and elsewhere in Europe was in large part an accommodation of capital with the interests of workers in order to preserve capital - concessions granted if not willingly then with a view to maintaining supremacy (that it was predominantly loss-making industries that were nationalised being a case in point). Concessions such as those granted in EU worker legislation could be seen in the same light. But take away the framework in which those concessions were granted, and capitalists may no longer see it as in their interests not to scrape away at them.

A fair few people on here, me included, have never argued that the EU is anything other than a neoliberal project. We have merely argued that the EU neoliberal project is not the worst of all possible worlds. Change the structures, and things can get even worse.

 

[Ranbay]

View attachment 165028

What's the French for "Told you"

 

[alsoknownas]

In passing, I wonder if Bercow could just about have done May a favour. Was looking like she would have lost mv3 or would have looked even weaker had she pulled it...

I agree. If his intention is to be a spoiler he may have shown his hand a bit too soon.

 

[SpineyNorman]

The two positions are not mutually exclusive. Most capitalist interests favour remain to smooth the flow of capital, but if brexit happens, while certain possibilities that they would like may be closed down, others open up. As is often mentioned here, the post-war settlement both in the UK and elsewhere in Europe was in large part an accommodation of capital with the interests of workers in order to preserve capital - concessions granted if not willingly then with a view to maintaining supremacy (that it was predominantly loss-making industries that were nationalised being a case in point). Concessions such as those granted in EU worker legislation could be seen in the same light. But take away the framework in which those concessions were granted, and capitalists may no longer see it as in their interests not to scrape away at them.

A fair few people on here, me included, have never argued that the EU is anything other than a neoliberal project. We have merely argued that the EU neoliberal project is not the worst of all possible worlds. Change the structures, and things can get even worse.

That's all very nice, patronising and condescending but none of it is actually relevant to the exchange you butted into.

So how is the EU preventing the Tories from slashing benefits and destroying the NHS, as ming claims they're anxiously waiting for brexit so they can do this? By what mechanism does EU membership prevent this?

 

[Kaka Tim]

That's all very nice, patronising and condescending but none of it is actually relevant to the exchange you butted into.

So how is the EU preventing the Tories from slashing benefits and destroying the NHS, as ming claims they're anxiously waiting for brexit so they can do this? By what mechanism does EU membership prevent this?

it doesn't as such. but if government revenue shrinks cos of brexit than their is even more pressure - and political justification - to reign in spending. I am 100% certain that brexit will mean even shitter conditions for poorest communities and less resources for the NHS. That does not contradict believing that the EU is a pile of shit - just that the other pile on offer is even shitter.

 

[Supine]

So how is the EU preventing the Tories from slashing benefits and destroying the NHS, as ming claims they're anxiously waiting for brexit so they can do this? By what mechanism does EU membership prevent this?

A new UK - US deal would put pressure on the NHS in a number of ways, as the US would see it as a target for increased spending on US drugs.

 

[two sheds]

I think they would see any attempts to protect the NHS from profiteering by US companies as anti-competitive. Wouldn't like to see the US 'health' model being adopted here, but am sure some of the batshitter tories along with insurance companies would prefer it.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Only thing I would say for sure is that the UK's labour, environmental and trading standards laws are only going to go in one direction as they diverge from those of the EU post-brexit under a tory government. It's quite a simple reason to totally oppose tory-led brexit under pretty much all circumstances.

 

[two sheds]

The Scream: Munch London show 'not intentionally timed with Brexit'

 

[tommers]

So how is the EU preventing the Tories from slashing benefits and destroying the NHS, as ming claims they're anxiously waiting for brexit so they can do this? By what mechanism does EU membership prevent this?

The difference, in my opinion, is that after no deal (for example) the economy slides rapidly downhill. The government can then remove employment rights like redundancy pay and paternity leave, or slash NHS costs or the welfare budget (even) further on the grounds of "allowing great british business to compete with the rest of the world". And not only are people not against that idea, they might actually welcome it.

 

[SpineyNorman]

All that is already happening and we're still in the EU. I agree no deal would be an economic disaster in the short term at the very least but that's why its the least likely of all the plausible outcomes.

The serious tories are all in the remain camp. They believe their agenda is best served by remaining in the EU.

You can opt out of the working time directive (and a lot of employers make it a condition of employment to do so irrespective of the law) and paternity leave is two weeks at not much better than dole.

I'm not sure it will make any discernible difference to most of us when the UK leaves with a deal as it almost certainly will. If it fucks over the tory party it might even be a net win.

 

[binka]

Thanks to Kaka Tim's vanity we now have 2 Brexit threads on the go at the same time. What a shambles

 

[Ranbay]

Thanks to Kaka Tim's vanity we now have 2 Brexit threads on the go at the same time. What a shambles

There can be only one!

 

[teuchter]

I'm not sure it will make any discernible difference to most of us when the UK leaves with a deal as it almost certainly will.

Who's 'us'?

 

[SpineyNorman]

Temple Normanton allotment society.

 

[fakeplasticgirl]

Why is Corbyn not pushing for a longer extension? There might be a majority for that in parliament.

 

[Balbi]

Why is Corbyn not pushing for a longer extension? There might be a majority for that in parliament.

*extremely patient Jean Claude Juncker voice*

Because it doesn't matter what the fuck Parliament vote for in terms of an extension - if they do not pass the deal negotiated with the E.U, then the E.U will not grant an extension.

This, in part, has been the whole problem. May and the Tories have spent THREE YEARS arguing about what they want and changing their minds and issuing demands and negotiating with each other over what Brexit actually is, while the E.U has not fundamentally changed its position and offer since the start and has been really fucking clear and patient about all this bullshit.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Because it doesn't matter what the fuck Parliament vote for in terms of an extension - if they do not pass the deal negotiated with the E.U, then the E.U will not grant an extension.

is that what they have said, though?

some interpretations of what the EU said today is that they have said will only do a short extension if the deal passes - implying that if the deal doesn't pass then a longer extension is possible.

 

[mauvais]

Thanks to Kaka Tim's vanity we now have 2 Brexit threads on the go at the same time. What a shambles

There can be only one!

Rules of Brexitdome? There are no rules! Two threads enter, noone leaves!

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Rules of Brexitdome? There are no rules! Two threads enter, noone leaves!

maybe multiple parallel versions of brexit would be the answer...

 

[Balbi]

is that what they have said, though?

some interpretations of what the EU said today is that they have said will only do a short extension if the deal passes - implying that if the deal doesn't pass then a longer extension is possible.

If May can't pass her deal, she probably can't request or pass a longer extension because the Brexit MPs aren't going to have that either and the E.U isn't going to open up the agreement to renegotiation.

 

[Ranbay]

Got a good one, but do I stay up for 25 mins?