Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[teuchter]

I can't say that I thought it would be an immediate outcome, but I did think it would expose the contradictions of the British presence in the six counties, to a wider public.

If you didn't think it would be an "immediate outcome" what arrangement were you expecting to exist before it becoming the eventual outcome?

 

[teuchter]

because there doesnt need to be a border anywhere else other than with The Continent and with RoI

I don't see how this answers my question.

 

[bimble]

What was that old tv gameshow where the audience would encourage the contestants to choose the 'mystery prize' behind the spangly curtain, which might turn out to be anything, a speedboat or a bronze-effect carriage clock or a joke plastic poo. Brexit reminds me of that.

 

[flypanam]

If you didn't think it would be an "immediate outcome" what arrangement were you expecting to exist before it becoming the eventual outcome?

As I said up thread, a border in the sea.

 

[bubblesmcgrath]

Are you saying that the fact that there are people in NI with dual citizenship is a reason not to have a hard border? If so, why?

Because half the population of NI are Irish.... and they want to maintain the overwhelmingly positive GFA.....
And a DUP blinkered arsehole is the last thing NI really needs.
Stop thinking if NI as all unionists...

 

[teuchter]

As I said up thread, a border in the sea.

Doesn't that leave NI still subject to the EU's neoliberal agenda - the one that was your reason for voting leave?

 

[teuchter]

Because half the population of NI are Irish.... and they want to maintain the overwhelmingly positive GFA.....
And a DUP blinkered arsehole is the last thing NI really needs.
Stop thinking if NI as all unionists...

Around half the population of NI don't want a hard border with the republic.
Around half the population of the UK don't want a hard border with the EU.
But we had the vote and Brexit is Brexit. Why the special treatment for just one portion of the population?

 

[ska invita]

I don't see how this answers my question.

London and Scotland asking for special arrangements are just trying it on. Ultimately "London" didn't vote Remain, nor did "Scotland". There's been a UK wide referendum the result of which was Leave. London and Scotland are part of the UK so have to deal with the decision as it stands.

Brexit means there needs to be a border with the EU, namely where it meets RoI and the Continent. London doesnt need a unique customs border. Nor does Scotland. Whatever Sturgeon or Khan say theres no need to give it to them. The argument "you gave it to them, why not us" may work with some weak parents with lots of children, but it doesnt apply here, no matter how much Khan and Sturgeon wish it does. Though good luck to them stirring the pot..the more infighting the better

 

[bubblesmcgrath]

Doesn't that leave NI still subject to the EU's neoliberal agenda - the one that was your reason for voting leave?

...NI voted as follows....


Blue = brexit vote.
Yellow = remain.
Again...the blue is representative of the protestant unionists living in the more affluent parts of NI.
Maybe a new border is needed....leave the blue areas in NI and let the yellows join Eire

 

[bubblesmcgrath]

Around half the population of NI don't want a hard border with the republic.
Around half the population of the UK don't want a hard border with the EU.
But we had the vote and Brexit is Brexit. Why the special treatment for just one portion of the population?

Because the GFA supercedes brexit and it needs to work more than anything else in NI.

 

[Winot]

Because the GFA supercedes brexit and it needs to work more than anything else in NI.

I'd agree with this.

I am strongly remain but if we are going to leave the EU then the only solution which leaves the UK and the GFA intact is for the whole of the UK to remain in the customs union and single market.

 

[teuchter]

London and Scotland asking for special arrangements are just trying it on. Ultimately "London" didn't vote Remain, nor did "Scotland". There's been a UK wide referendum the result of which was Leave. London and Scotland are part of the UK so have to deal with the decision as it stands.

Brexit means there needs to be a border with the EU, namely where it meets RoI and the Continent. London doesnt need a unique customs border. Nor does Scotland. Whatever Sturgeon or Khan say theres no need to give it to them. The argument "you gave it to them, why not us" may work with some weak parents with lots of children, but it doesnt apply here, no matter how much Khan and Sturgeon wish it does. Though good luck to them stirring the pot..the more infighting the better

You've still not answered the question of why NI deserves a special arrangement any more than these other parts of the UK.

 

[bubblesmcgrath]

You've still not answered the question of why NI deserves a special arrangement any more than these other parts of the UK.

You should read more

 

[ska invita]

You've still not answered the question of why NI deserves a special arrangement any more than these other parts of the UK.

its not a special arrangement "for NI", its an arrangement for the UK to set up a border with the RoI.

 

[teuchter]

its not a special arrangement "for NI", its an arrangement for the UK to set up a border with the RoI.

No it's not - a special border between NI and the rest of the UK is not a border with the RoI, unless NI becomes part of the RoI.
And if a special border can be set up between NI and the rest of the UK, then why can't the same be done for, say, Scotland?

 

[gosub]

No it's not - a special border between NI and the rest of the UK is not a border with the RoI, unless NI becomes part of the RoI.
And if a special border can be set up between NI and the rest of the UK, then why can't the same be done for, say, Scotland?

Exactly. May was prepared to sign up to a deal that would schism the UK apart in short order. SHE HAS TO GO.

 

[flypanam]

Doesn't that leave NI still subject to the EU's neoliberal agenda - the one that was your reason for voting leave?

Ah, you seem to be under the illusion that the left thought one result and the whole system would crash to the ground. No-one was under that illusion.
Does the UK leaving weaken the EU? Yes, it no longer can present itself as the only game in town.
Does a sea border, weaken the notion of a British presence in Ireland? Yes it does. the six counties becomes a special case, politically part of the UK, economically separate. Subject to customs checks at British ports like every other country. Which MIGHT cause some unionists to question the political union.
Does Brexit put pressure on the Irish establishment and State? Yes it does. A shitty healthcare system, a housing crisis, an expensive transport means that Ireland is not attractive to investors. Leading some sectors to demand greater state investment in these sectors. Greater state involvement is counter to Lisbon Treaty (EU policy). Witness a growing campaign in Ireland for a National Health Service, which has been agreed in principal by a government commission.

 

[ska invita]

No it's not - a special border between NI and the rest of the UK is not a border with the RoI, unless NI becomes part of the RoI.

It's an arrangement to deal with the border with RoI.

And if a special border can be set up between NI and the rest of the UK, then why can't the same be done for, say, Scotland?

It could be done for Scotland. Anything is possible in politics. But there is no justification for it. A I said, just because Sturgeon wants to be in the Customs UNion/Common Market doesnt mean she can get it. "Scotland Voted Remain" is not really true. The UK voted Leave. I'm repeating myself now. If you dont get my point I cant explain it clearer.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Exactly. May was prepared to sign up to a deal that would schism the UK apart in short order. SHE HAS TO GO.

And of course if that were to happen Spain would gobble up Gibraltar in the blink of an eye.

 

[teuchter]

It's an arrangement to deal with the border with RoI.

Whatever words you use to describe it - it's an arrangement that involves drawing a border within the UK. The question is simply: why should that border only separate off NI, rather than including other parts of the UK that don't want to leave the customs union etc.

 

[bubblesmcgrath]

No it's not - a special border between NI and the rest of the UK is not a border with the RoI, unless NI becomes part of the RoI.

It's not a border between NI and the rest of the UK. It's between ROI and NI. Something that has not existed since the GFA


Gee... you really don't get it do you....

 

[Winot]

It's an arrangement to deal with the border with RoI.


It could be done for Scotland. Anything is possible in politics. But there is no justification for it. A I said, just because Sturgeon wants to be in the Customs UNion/Common Market doesnt mean she can get it. "Scotland Voted Remain" is not really true. The UK voted Leave. I'm repeating myself now. If you dont get my point I cant explain it clearer.

If "Scotland Voted Remain" is not really true then "NI Voted Remain" isn't either.

 

[bubblesmcgrath]

Whatever words you use to describe it - it's an arrangement that involves drawing a border within the UK. The question is simply: why should that border only separate off NI, rather than including other parts of the UK that don't want to leave the customs union etc.

Again...please read more ...and stop the nonsense. It is not a border within the UK. Eire is not not will it ever be in the UK

 

[Silas Loom]

If "Scotland Voted Remain" is not really true then "NI Voted Leave" isn't either.

Eh? NI voted Remain. Do you mean Wales? Or am I misunderstanding the point?

 

[Winot]

It's not a border between NI and the rest of the UK. It's between ROI and NI. Something that has not existed since the GFA


Gee... you really don't get it do you....

I think there's some misunderstanding here. There are 2 scenarios:

(1) Border between NI and RoI. Breaks GFA. Everyone's trying to avoid this.
(2) Border between NI and rUK. That is effective outcome of regulatory divergence between NI and rUK that was suggested as solution yesterday. That is what teuchter is saying shouldn't happen. If I understand correctly.

 

[Santino]

I'm not quite clear - when you voted for leave did you think you were voting for a 32 county republic as part of the deal?

When you voted remain were you voting for Greece to be asset-stripped by bankers?

 

[Winot]

Eh? NI voted Remain. Do you mean Wales? Or am I misunderstanding the point?

Cock up on my part. Have edited.

 

[Pickman's model]

Whatever words you use to describe it - it's an arrangement that involves drawing a border within the UK. The question is simply: why should that border only separate off NI, rather than including other parts of the UK that don't want to leave the customs union etc.

there are none so blind as those that will not see

 

[teuchter]

It's not a border between NI and the rest of the UK. It's between ROI and NI. Something that has not existed since the GFA


Gee... you really don't get it do you....

What is "not a border between NI and the rest of the UK"?

Any special customs or freedom of movement arrangement for NI by definition creates a border of some kind between NI and the rest of the UK. You can't have your cake and eat it.

 

[bubblesmcgrath]

I think there's some misunderstanding here. There are 2 scenarios:

(1) Border between NI and RoI. Breaks GFA. Everyone's trying to avoid this.
(2) Border between NI and rUK. That is effective outcome of regulatory divergence between NI and rUK that was suggested as solution yesterday. That is what teuchter is saying shouldn't happen. If I understand correctly.

There is no border between NI and UK.
Nor should there be.
There was only ever one border....the one between ROI and NI/UK.
That border was eliminated as part of the GFA. Nobody in the entire island of Ireland wants that border back