Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[mojo pixy]

They are trapped outside because EU member states don't want uncontrolled immigration and exactly the same would be the case if the EU didn't exist.

Letting in refugees isn't "uncontrolled immigration" lol, even using that term in this context shows how the propaganda works.

 

[brogdale]

Can't say I know much about Labour or it's MPs but I wouldn't say the following were right wing. Fuck knows about the others.

Ronnie Campbell
Dennis Skinner
Stephen Hepburn

List of PLP members who 'rebelled' last night:
Ian Austin (Dudley North),
Kevin Barron (Rother Valley),
Ronnie Campbell (Blyth Valley),
Rosie Cooper (West Lancashire),
Jim Fitzpatrick (Poplar and Limehouse),
Caroline Flint (Don Valley),
Roger Godsiff (Birmingham, Hall Green),
Stephen Hepburn (Jarrow),
Kate Hoey (Vauxhall),
John Mann (Bassetlaw),
Dennis Skinner (Bolsover),
Laura Smith (Crewe and Nantwich),
Gareth Snell (Stoke-on-Trent Central),
Graham Stringer (Blackley and Broughton).

 

[SpookyFrank]

Ok. The questions I asked, which you initially responded to, were to do with what the EU is actually supposed to do at this point in the proceedings.

What someone is 'supposed to do' depends entirely on their aims and principles. If they were dedicated to democracy above all, they would realise that May's imcompetence is not something for which the whole UK should be punished. They would present the British public with a clear range of options and refuse to allow May and the tories to do all this behind closed doors.

This is a fantasy of course, because they don't give a tinker's toss about democracy, save as a useful coat of polish on the steaming turd of neoliberalism.

 

[Pickman's model]

List of PLP members who 'rebelled' last night:
[...]
Dennis Skinner (Bolsover),
Laura Smith (Crewe and Nantwich),
Gareth Snell (Stoke-on-Trent Central),
Graham Stringer (Blackley and Broughton).

et tu dennis, thought jeremy corbyn

 

[SpackleFrog]

I can think of a few bills talked to death in recent years. The upskirting one, the 'homes fit for human habitation' one. It's one of many areas where the speaker has too much authority. He could tell the filibusterer (?) to STFU but often doesn't.

Aye, but Bercow is pro-Upskirting, and anti-Brexit.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Aye, but Bercow is pro-Upskirting, and anti-Brexit.

The quintessential modern liberal then.

 

[SpackleFrog]

You know the EU's not a real thing right? It doesn't have an opinion, or rights. It's a nebulous accretion of competing interests, none of which is some magical force pulling in the direction of what is right or fair. The EU, insofar as it wants anything, wants to keep its own nest feathered for as long as possible and would cast the lot of us into penury tomorrow morning if the costs and benefits stacked up.

I don't want to be the guy who keeps saying 'look at Greece' but well, look at Greece.

If the EU were a living, breathing creature, it would experience only two emotions or instincts that we would understand. firstly, it would be perpetually hungry and feed constantly on a diet of new markets in order to surive. Secondly it would occasionally feel an uncomfortable irritation and begin gnawing at the flesh of its own limbs. No matter; provided the supply of new markets remains contant, its limbs will regenerate, and it does not consider its hunger or its irritation in any real depth.

 

[Pickman's model]

If the EU were a living, breathing creature, it would experience only two emotions or instincts that we would understand. firstly, it would be perpetually hungry and feed constantly on a diet of new markets in order to surive. Secondly it would occasionally feel an uncomfortable irritation and begin gnawing at the flesh of its own limbs. No matter; provided the supply of new markets remains contant, its limbs will regenerate, and it does not consider its hunger or its irritation in any real depth.

if it were a living organism, what would it excrete?

 

[klang]

Greece.

 

[ska invita]

I guess we've got another 2 weeks of just repeating conversations we've already had whilst May runs the clock down some more, so in that spirit........

supporters talk of “freedom of movement”, but this is for (mainly white) Europeans, not (mainly non white) non Europeans. This has to be acknowledged. It’s not pretty and it’s not pleasant. If the only defence is “other countries not in supra national organisations also have shit attitudes”, that is not a compelling defence.

I've never understand the line of reasoning that says freedom of movement only applies between countries within the union and not to the whole world, so lets have Brexit and have no freedom of movement at all, as if that is an improvement.
(not sure if thats your position Danny, cant work out what you and teuchter are talking about, so might well be out of context)

As someone born behind the iron curtain I can vouche for the profound effect that being able to cross borders on the continent unchecked has had across many generations of people living in europe. I think people on this island of ours have a very different experience - Brits always have a border check arriving or leaving (apart from a couple of cases for pedants to point out), even as EU members. I don't like to lean on psychogeographic arguments on Brexit, but the island experience is a thing.

Id be a tragedy to see a return of strong european borders. However much the EU as an unaccountable political superstate needs dismantling it would be a step backward to see that freedom of movement taken away with it.

Broadening out freedom of movement across the world requires greater global equality, and thats the prize and goal

 

[danny la rouge]

I've never understand the line of reasoning that says freedom of movement only applies between countries within the union and not to the whole world, so lets have Brexit and have no freedom of movement at all, as if that is an improvement.
(not sure if thats your position Danny,

It isn't.

 

[Wilf]

Been out of the thread for a little while...so...where are we now?

The ERG have engineered a pointless diversion for May (doomed to fail) which, importantly, takes them 2 weeks closer to their goal of 'No-Deal' inevitability?
On the 14th, when May admits she has failed again, most(?) of the ERG will vote against.
May will then need between 20 - 50 (?) additional PLP members to rebel along with the 15 existing RW Labour 'Leave' core on show yesterday to get Agreement 1 passed.

I've no idea what's going to happen, but I wonder if last night ties May to seeking a majority made up of her own party and the dup? Obvious as that sounds, I mean that it now rules out the 11th hour 59th minute option of her trimming further in Labour's direction and seeking a grand coalition of most lab MPs, 50% + of the Tories. Of course as you say, the EU most likely won't allow her to trim in the direction of the erg, so... fuck knows.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I've no idea what's going to happen, but I wonder if last night ties May to seeking a majority made up of her own party and the dup? Obvious as that sounds, I mean that it now rules out the 11th hour 59th minute option of her trimming further in Labour's direction and seeking a grand coalition of most lab MPs, 50% + of the Tories. Of course as you say, the EU most likely won't allow her to trim in the direction of the erg, so... fuck knows.

Yes, that's my reading of it. Last night dragged May to the right for the next two weeks at least. When that fails, as you say we're back to fuck knows territory. Last night was also an indication that parliament will block no deal if it comes to that. Will May survive February? I've written her off a few times and been proven wrong, but it's becoming hard to see how she carries on once this latest wheeze fails.

 

[andysays]

You'd still have personnel patrolling the borders, and I imagine they'd be more likely to be from the respective countries. What's the significance of where the personnel come from?

Maybe you could suggest this as a way of sorting out the border between NI and Eire - EU border guards rather than the hated Brits

 

[teuchter]

OK. You have just replied “what does it matter where the personnel patrolling the borders come from?” (I paraphrase, but I think fairly) to the point initially raised (I think) by @mojo pixie about “Fortress Europe”. If that is meant as an argument for staying in the EU (which, correct me if I’m wrong, but I think you’d still favour trying to achieve), then it is a poor one.

But more specifically, on the issue in hand: Currently EU members and supporters talk of “freedom of movement”, but this is for (mainly white) Europeans, not (mainly non white) non Europeans. This has to be acknowledged. It’s not pretty and it’s not pleasant. If the only defence is “other countries not in supra national organisations also have shit attitudes”, that is not a compelling defence.

You've not explained what the relevance is of where the border personnel came from, which, yes is what my question was, the one you said was a perfect demonstration of non-thinking.

Yes, freedom of movement means freedom of movement for EU citizens within the EU, and not for non-Europeans. I acknowledge that. Maybe it's not pretty and not pleasant, but I do not believe the situation would be more pretty or pleasant if none of us were in the EU. It's also something that individual nations are currently able to determine for themselves. Your starting point is that I have to defend the status quo: why? My argument is simply that leaving the EU, or the EU not existing, would not make things any better, and therefore I don't accept it as an argument for leaving.

Anyway, that's all a diversion from what I invited you to explain, and which you haven't.

 

[CRI]

 

[Sasaferrato]

On to the next act in this endless farce. May can now go back to the EU and say she has a vote in the commons indicating that she could get the deal through if it were a different deal. She also goes back with a vote in the commons telling her to rule out no deal. Ball's in her court - what does she offer in return for changing the backstop arrangement? If nothing, why would she get anything other than nothing in return, particularly as there is already a sign that the Commons will block no deal when push comes to shove.

The EU have stated categorically that there is no more negotiation. The 'deal' is on the table, we take it or leave it.

The Commons have now voted for further negotiation (tin ear or what?), but also that we should not leave without a 'deal'.

It is the irresistible force versus the immovable object. Unless the EU blink (very unlikely), then we are out without a 'deal'.

Also, although an amendment was accepted re the NI/Eire border, there is no detail of what is being proposed.

 

[flypanam]

Maybe you could suggest this as a way of sorting out the border between NI and Eire - EU border guards rather than the hated Brits

The Guards and Irish custom officials are not popular either. Most custom officials are from counties far away from the border where their families can't be victimised for their behaviour.

 

[teuchter]

Letting in refugees isn't "uncontrolled immigration" lol, even using that term in this context shows how the propaganda works.

Member states don't want uncontrolled immigration.
Member states don't want to accept large numbers of refugees.
This is reflected in what the EU as a whole does.
Does the EU inflict a 'maximum' quota of refugees on member states? No, they tried to inflict a mimimum quota, and many states defied it.

 

[rekil]

I assume you (cri) help spam twitter and fb with this shit so why oh why are you compelled to do it here as well.

 

[danny la rouge]

You've not explained what the relevance is of where the border personnel came from, which, yes is what my question was, the one you said was a perfect demonstration of non-thinking.

You are incorrect. It was the entirety of your post and the context in which it was made it that I was referring to as an example of non thinking.

If you want to take that out of context and make that about the free-floating question "what is the relevance of where the border personnel came from?", the answer is: that depends on why one wants to know. It may be relevant in some circumstances. But as a general rule, shit border policies are shit border policies, and shit border policing is shit border policing, and people drowning in the Med don't care at the moment of their last breath which flag is responsible.

 

[Wilf]

Yes, that's my reading of it. Last night dragged May to the right for the next two weeks at least. When that fails, as you say we're back to fuck knows territory. Last night was also an indication that parliament will block no deal if it comes to that. Will May survive February? I've written her off a few times and been proven wrong, but it's becoming hard to see how she carries on once this latest wheeze fails.

Agreed, except I'm not sure about May not surviving. It's a bit like Brexit itself, how does anything get decided >>> how does she work out that the latest fuck up is her actual moment to leave (as the party can't kick her out and probably doesn't want the soul draining morass of a leadership contest). She'll resign or simply evaporate at some point, but why now as opposed to … some other time? Having said all that, it's pmqs today and I be she's looking a bit smug today. So, today is not a good day for her to die.

 

[teuchter]

What someone is 'supposed to do' depends entirely on their aims and principles. If they were dedicated to democracy above all, they would realise that May's imcompetence is not something for which the whole UK should be punished. They would present the British public with a clear range of options and refuse to allow May and the tories to do all this behind closed doors.

This is a fantasy of course, because they don't give a tinker's toss about democracy, save as a useful coat of polish on the steaming turd of neoliberalism.

Well, that's an interesting suggestion: in the context of a vote to leave the EU, and escape from its control and influence, you think the EU should intervene more directly in the UK's decision making process.

But I don't think there's a lack of clarity from the EU on what the options are. The lack of clarity comes from the UK side.

 

[Pickman's model]

It is the resistible farce versus the immovable object. Unless the EU blink (very unlikely), then we are out without a 'deal'.

c4u

 

[danny la rouge]

I assume you (cri) help spam twitter and fb with this shit so why oh why are you compelled to do it here as well.

People posting, without comment, a video nobody is going to watch. Terrific contribution to the thread. Love it.

 

[Pickman's model]

What someone is 'supposed to do' depends entirely on their aims and principles. If they were dedicated to democracy above all, they would realise that May's imcompetence is not something for which the whole UK should be punished. They would present the British public with a clear range of options and refuse to allow May and the tories to do all this behind closed doors.

This is a fantasy of course, because they don't give a tinker's toss about democracy, save as a useful coat of polish on the steaming turd of neoliberalism.

to be fair no one in government gives a tinker's cuss about democracy. if they did you wouldn't have seen things like the withdrawal of esa or the great increase in tuition fees (or indeed the introduction of tuition fees). doesn't matter if they're in local, national or even supra-national government, democracy's only invoked to gain support for something or to put someone else down.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Agreed, except I'm not sure about May not surviving. It's a bit like Brexit itself, how does anything get decided >>> how does she work out that the latest fuck up is her actual moment to leave (as the party can't kick her out and probably doesn't want the soul draining morass of a leadership contest). She'll resign or simply evaporate at some point, but why now as opposed to … some other time? Having said all that, it's pmqs today and I be she's looking a bit smug today. So, today is not a good day for her to die.

At some point if we get within, say, one month of the deadline and no deal still hasn't been formally taken off the table, ministers are likely to start resigning. As I said above, I can't see this government reaching the deadline day without a decision having been made without falling apart first. Plenty in govt will not want to be associated with no deal.

 

[andysays]

People posting, without comment, a video nobody is going to watch. Terrific contribution to the thread. Love it.

It could be worse - it could actually include one of CRI's sneery comments accusing people of racism or whatever...

 

[SpookyFrank]

Well, that's an interesting suggestion: in the context of a vote to leave the EU, and escape from its control and influence, you think the EU should intervene more directly in the UK's decision making process.

If I meant that I'd have fucking said it wouldn't I? Presenting a range of options would not be 'interfering in our decision making process'. The exact oposite if anything, it would be a vital precondition of having a valid decision making process in the first place.

 

[SpookyFrank]

to be fair no one in government gives a tinker's cuss about democracy. if they did you wouldn't have seen things like the withdrawal of esa or the great increase in tuition fees (or indeed the introduction of tuition fees). doesn't matter if they're in local, national or even supra-national government, democracy's only invoked to gain support for something or to put someone else down.

And the democratic EU was happy to have us on board regardless. Same as it's happy to have Orban, Salvini etc in the big tent.