Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Raheem]

Think it's slightly less likely an outcome than Larry the Cat being elevated to the Lords and being asked to lead a government of national unity, but...

You've heard the rumours about what May's going to announce tomorrow, then.

 

[toblerone3]

Fuck it.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

You've heard the rumours about what May's going to announce tomorrow, then.

Amending the GFA? Ambitious...

 

[Theisticle]

Absolute madness...

Exclusive: Theresa May mulls amending Good Friday Agreement to get her Brexit deal past MPs

Read without paywall here:

 

[Raheem]

Amending the GFA? Ambitious...

No, I think she'll go with the feline Lord Protector idea. She's not completely crazy, after all.

 

[xenon]

Overton window

 

[toblerone3]

I want Britain and Europe to be closer. Europe does not want to be lead by the Germans, it wants Britain right in there. It so fucking criminal that we are talking about leaving Europe. Europe wants us to take a lead. We are FUCKING pussy for not taking on this role.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

I dunno, I would have thought a manufacturer of paper towels would be very well placed to deal with a massive stinking pile of shit.

I think it's beyond the stage where shovels would be enough, let alone paper towels...

 

[xenon]

So basically re-write the GFA to say no hard border on the island of Ireland. There, take that EU.

 

[Raheem]

Reckon it's completely likely that Theresa May currently doesn't know what she will be saying tomorrow.

 

[Raheem]

Overton window

That's French for 'Open your window', if I'm not mistaken.

 

[two sheds]

I quite enjoyed this in the NY Times

The Malign Incompetence of the British Ruling Class
With Brexit, the chumocrats who drew borders from India to Ireland are getting a taste of their own medicine.

Opinion | The Malign Incompetence of the British Ruling Class

 

[brogdale]

The deal is dead; long live the new deal?

 

[redsquirrel]

Can't back it up with anything, that's true. Just a feeling. A no-deal Brexit is a hell of an opportunity if your already wealthy and it'll enable them to push further getting rid of the welfare state. Also they have a track record of telling shameless whopping great porkies. Remember 'No top down reorganisation of the NHS?'. Followed by the biggest reorganisation in its history The Health and Social Care Act 2012. And then Portillo admitting they lied.

I don't think anyone is in any doubt that politicians (of all parties) are lying scumbags. But your "feeling" ignores common sense, history and any type of serious analysis.

The leadership of the Tory party has long been in favour of the EU, they wanted to enter the common market, they supported the remain vote in 75, they are after all the right party of capital and capital is certainly in favour of the UK remaining in the EU (unless you also think the BoE, CBI etc are all lying?). And if Cameron and all these Tories were in favour of leaving, why not campaign for Leave, it would have certainly helped him/them with the wider CP membership, they could have neutralised the loss of votes to UKIP. As I said tin-foil hat stuff.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Absolute madness...

Exclusive: Theresa May mulls amending Good Friday Agreement to get her Brexit deal past MPs

Read without paywall here:

Negotiating a smooth brexit with the EU would be a piece of cake compared with fucking with the GFA and getting all parties to agree

 

[danny la rouge]

I think a lot of remain Tories are lying about being remainers (including Cameron).

I'm afraid this is nothing more than post hoc rationalisations of feelings. Because you feel that Remain is ("must be") the 'progressive' choice, and since you understand Tories as being not progressive, therefore Tories can't be Remain. But the reason the conclusion is incorrect is that both the first and second premises are faulty.

You strongly believe Remain to be the Progressive choice, but you are not allowing all the evidence against Remain. You merely feel that it is the internationalist choice, therefore it cannot be anything but progressive. This despite knowing about Fortress Europe, about the neoliberal nature of the EU rules, about the treatment of Greece and the periphery (Portugal etc), and despite knowing that Remain was led by a Tory prime minister and chancellor. But this must be black and white, right? You have to choose Remain or Leave, and the decision has to be clear cut...doesn't it? One is the left choice and the other the rightwing choice. (Well, how about, no: it isn't that simple).

Still on premise one: you are not clearly defining "progressive". Remember, the Tories under Cameron passed the Same Sex Couples Act, and so on. Indeed, neoliberalism successfully co-opted many of the individualist concerns of identity politics. So "progressive" ideals can't be seen simply in left and right shorthand any more, as far as mainstream UK parties are concerned. They are no longer a reliable marker of leftness.

Which leads us to the problem with premise two: that the Tories aren't "progressive". Well, we already know that we haven't defined that well enough to exclude Tory policies. So it can't be used to rule out Toryness. And secondly, it misses what is the primary concern of the Tory party under Cameron and Osborne: the neoliberal project. Look at who else supported Remain - the CBI, the British Chambers of Commerce, the financial institutions, and so on. The neoliberal project, in other words.

Which means that your feeling that Tories couldn't have been Remain is based on a number of errors, failures to properly define terms, and a lack of structural analysis. But mainly it was just a feeling that you couldn't possibly feel this strongly about something that Tories also cared about.

What you should be watching now, however, is the way that the neoliberal project copes with coming to an accommodation with Brexit. That's what is at the root of the Tories' turmoil at the moment.

 

[zahir]

A post from eureferendum.com arguing that we’re heading for a no deal:

Brexit: a black hole at the heart of government

 

[teuchter]

I'm afraid this is nothing more than post hoc rationalisations of feelings. Because you feel that Remain is ("must be") the 'progressive' choice, and since you understand Tories as being not progressive, therefore Tories can't be Remain. But the reason the conclusion is incorrect is that both the first and second premises are faulty.

You strongly believe Remain to be the Progressive choice, but you are not allowing all the evidence against Remain. You merely feel that it is the internationalist choice, therefore it cannot be anything but progressive. This despite knowing about Fortress Europe, about the neoliberal nature of the EU rules, about the treatment of Greece and the periphery (Portugal etc), and despite knowing that Remain was led by a Tory prime minister and chancellor. But this must be black and white, right? You have to choose Remain or Leave, and the decision has to be clear cut...doesn't it? One is the left choice and the other the rightwing choice. (Well, how about, no: it isn't that simple).

Still on premise one: you are not clearly defining "progressive". Remember, the Tories under Cameron passed the Same Sex Couples Act, and so on. Indeed, neoliberalism successfully co-opted many of the individualist concerns of identity politics. So "progressive" ideals can't be seen simply in left and right shorthand any more, as far as mainstream UK parties are concerned. They are no longer a reliable marker of leftness.

Which leads us to the problem with premise two: that the Tories aren't "progressive". Well, we already know that we haven't defined that well enough to exclude Tory policies. So it can't be used to rule out Toryness. And secondly, it misses what is the primary concern of the Tory party under Cameron and Osborne: the neoliberal project. Look at who else supported Remain - the CBI, the British Chambers of Commerce, the financial institutions, and so on. The neoliberal project, in other words.

Which means that your feeling that Tories couldn't have been Remain is based on a number of errors, failures to properly define terms, and a lack of structural analysis. But mainly it was just a feeling that you couldn't possibly feel this strongly about something that Tories also cared about.

What you should be watching now, however, is the way that the neoliberal project copes with coming to an accommodation with Brexit. That's what is at the root of the Tories' turmoil at the moment.

Ming hasn't even used the word 'progressive' as far as I can see

 

[danny la rouge]

Ming hasn't even used the word 'progressive' as far as I can see

S/He didn’t expressly outline the formal, deductive argument either. I’m not quoting: I’m inferring. (As I think is quite clear from the content and context of my post).

 

[SpookyFrank]

Marriage equality is an 'individualistic concern' now. Awesome.

 

[danny la rouge]

Marriage equality is an 'individualistic concern' now. Awesome.

First of all, that’s not what I said. And secondly, are you inferring that I disapprove of equal marriage? Because I don’t. In fact I don’t necessarily disapprove of individualistic concerns, per se. I’m not dismissing individual ‘freedoms’. I’m pointing out that they’re a side of the equation that the neoliberal project felt able to grant. So they can’t be used to define what is and isn’t Tory.

But if you’d read my post you’d know that.

 

[AnandLeo]

The outcome of the Brexit referendum is not a paradigm for democracy. Democracy by rule of majority is only a shade of democracy. Democracy is rule by people directly or by representation. After the Brexit referendum, people have called for respecting the views of 48 percent who voted to remain, not just the 52 percent voted to exit the EU. That is the true democracy. The reality is only a very small minority would wish to remain in the EU under its present terms and emerging trends. The rest of the majority of remainers would like to remain for ties in trade, and many other economic scientific and cultural objectives with restrictions on movement of people. Leavers want a stop the free movement of people and political and legal union with the EU. Leavers are not against free trade with EU.

If there is another referendum, and if remainers win, the situation is back to the status quo. Not many remainers want that either. Most remainers prefer a soft Brexit. It was just that option was not available in the Brexit referendum. If the leavers win, the situation is back to the current impasse of no consensus on a Brexit agreement or the feared no deal. So what is the point of another referendum?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The outcome of the Brexit referendum is not a paradigm for democracy. Democracy by rule of majority is only a shade of democracy. Democracy is rule by people directly or by representation. After the Brexit referendum, people have called for respecting the views of 48 percent who voted to remain, not just the 52 percent voted to exit the EU. That is the true democracy. The reality is only a very small minority would wish to remain in the EU under its present terms and emerging trends. The rest of the majority of remainers would like to remain for ties in trade, and many other economic scientific and cultural objectives with restrictions on movement of people. Leavers want a stop the free movement of people and political and legal union with the EU. Leavers are not against free trade with EU.

If there is another referendum, and if remainers win, the situation is back to the status quo. Not many remainers want that either. Most remainers prefer a soft Brexit. It was just that option was not available in the Brexit referendum. If the leavers win, the situation is back to the current impasse of no consensus on a Brexit agreement or the feared no deal. So what is the point of another referendum?

Not sure where you've got a lot of this from. 'most remainers prefer a soft brexit'? Really? I don't think that is the case - lots of people want to stay in the EU. And 'leavers want to stop the free movement of people' - all of them? Really? Not true either. There are examples of countries outside the EU within the free movement area (Switzerland and Norway), so leaving the EU does not have to mean ending free movement, and never has had to mean that.

 

[mauvais]

Turns out, like all worldly wrongs, Brexit is the Lib Dems' fault:

I asked David Cameron, ‘Why did you decide on this referendum, this – it’s so dangerous, so even stupid, you know,’ and, he told me - and I was really amazed and even shocked - that the only reason was his own party, [He told me] he felt really safe, because he thought at the same time that there’s no risk of a referendum, because, his coalition partner, the Liberals, would block this idea of a referendum. But then, surprisingly, he won and there was no coalition partner. So paradoxically David Cameron became the real victim of his own victory.

 

[butchersapron]

I think he even read that wrong - i'm not sure the lib-dems would have blocked a referendum when in coalition. They had a manifesto commitment to an in/out referendum under certain circumstances (circumstances so vague and unspecific that they allowed them to play all side of the argument to different markets at diff times of course). I think they may well have saw the opp to split their tory competitors as one too juicy to turn down.

edit: yes, looking around it seems Clegg was happy to support a referendum if given a few scraps elsewhere.

 

[treelover]

On every table in every Wetherspoon watering hole, there’s a little folded up card which preaches to the drunks why Britain would be best outside the EU. Makes me wonder why the New Zealander who owns the chain is so passionate about this. Maybe he thinks it will create an even bigger underclass to go and drown their sorrows while eating cheap, microwaved slops.

Posted on John Harris's article in the Guardian about the growing tensions/culture wars around Brexit, and before anyone says this is just CIF, ignore it, this unpleasant Eloi/Moorlock bifurcation as an example of class snobbery is being replicated in numerous middle class milieus across the UK, inc social media.

 

[SpineyNorman]

I want Britain and Europe to be closer. Europe does not want to be lead by the Germans, it wants Britain right in there. It so fucking criminal that we are talking about leaving Europe. Europe wants us to take a lead. We are FUCKING pussy for not taking on this role.

that little bit of nuttiness has brightened up a bit of a crap day for me!

 

[Pickman's model]

treelover Tim Martin who owns wetherspoons is British not kiwi. As a simple Google will confirm

 

[Wilf]

You'll have to take my Wetherspoons veggie sausage and mash from my cold dead hand.

 

[treelover]

treelover Tim Martin who owns wetherspoons is British not kiwi. As a simple Google will confirm

care to reply to the substantive point