Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Wilf]

Shelled or unshelled peas?

'Aye well, when I were a lad, we had straight bananas'
- luxury!

 

[SpackleFrog]

From the IWCA:

“Coming out unequivocally against Brexit damages Labour less in purely electoral terms than coming out for it, as much of Labour’s working class base deserted the party long ago. The Oxford researchers Jon Mellon and Geoffrey Evans found in 2014 that ‘Labour’s move to the ‘liberal consensus’ on the EU and immigration left many of their core voters out in the cold a long time before UKIP were an effective political presence. These voters left Labour in 2001, 2005 and 2010.’ Labour accepting the liberal agenda on first Brexit, and then presumably everything else, only further exacerbates this process.

If one wants to give the Corbyn leadership some credit, one might say they at least have some vestigial awareness of the danger taking this path entails. When Transport Secretary Chris Grayling recently said that blocking Brexit would 'open the door to extremist populist political forces in this country of the kind we see in other countries in Europe’, Labour’s David Lammy accused him of ‘gutter politics’ and ‘appeasement’ while Nick Ryan of Hope Not Hate said the remark ‘simply plays into the hands of those extremists seeking to use Brexit as a platform to boost their profile.’

While Grayling’s timing may well have been cynically motivated, the observation is not wrong. What most of the political, economic and media elite have wanted since the Brexit vote is as close to neo-liberalism as usual as possible, with the minimum of disruption emanating from this democratic aberration. Should they succeed, any semi-competent populist right movement would be able to adopt a narrative of class and democratic betrayal, and position themselves as the alternative to the entire condescending liberal establishment. It’s a narrative that would have resonance for one simple reason: there would be a good deal of truth to it.

And where the BNP took over half a million votes at the 2010 general election, close to a million in the 2009 Euro election, and UKIP 3.8 million votes in 2015, this narrative would in the first instance have a pool of 17 million disproportionately working class Leave voters to pitch to. So while middle-class ultra-Remainers like to pitch the idea that Brexit = fascism, it is the contempt for democratic expression, and the longer-term fundamental retreat from class politics by the left, that creates the imminent risk. Furthermore, there is nothing the Labour party can do to address this: it is a task for the class itself and those who believe in it as the ultimate agent of change.

Saw that. Not sure how it sits with the 2017 election results, when a lot of traditional w/class labour voting areas saw a huge increase in labour voters.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I'm not taking any bets in pounds: A 5-pound bag of potatoes, three onions, four leeks, a good-sized turnip and two carrots says we won't have a no-deal Brexit by the end of March.

I think this is the wrong way round y'kno, vegetables would only replace sterling as a currency in the event of the no deal (which will be apocalyptic and anyone who says it might not be is fake news ) so you should bet in sterling, if you lose it won't matter and if you win you'll want the money and not the veg.

 

[mojo pixy]

With no evidence at all, since we're into a bit of a reckon limbo till January 29th...

I reckon a huge number of Labour's recent upswell in voters do not consider themselves Working Class, and furthermore do not see Labour as strictly a pro-Working Class party. Anecdotally, I hear people saying Labour is a party for The Poor - For The Many against The Elitist Few (this is what IMO drawn in the current crop of conspiraloons, they love that we are many they are few narrative too).

Rarely if ever do I hear the term working class in discussions on Corbyn's Labour Party, and if I introduce it it usually provokes an argument right away as several people try to define the term in some confused way or another to either include or exclude themselves.

Never do the Labour party's actual policies join together with the concept of The Working Class, not with that term. Though I would add that most of my friends and almost all my work colleagues are not very engaged with politics as it relates to everyday life in general. Which is also part of the problem.

 

[paolo]

What does this mean?

“As I set out in Liverpool, a public vote has to be an option for Labour. After all, deeply embedded in our values are internationalism, collaboration and cooperation with our European partners.”

And?

 

[SpackleFrog]

What does this mean?

“As I set out in Liverpool, a public vote has to be an option for Labour. After all, deeply embedded in our values are internationalism, collaboration and cooperation with our European partners.”

And?

Where is this from/who said it?

 

[butchersapron]

It means starmer is continuing to try and pile pressure on corbyn to make a public commitment to support and campaign for a second referendum with the long term aim of stopping brexit in a democratic guise.

 

[butchersapron]

Where is this from/who said it?

Starmer.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Starmer.

Thanks. And agree with your analysis.

I cannot understand why people keep suggesting Starmer is some sort of leadership candidate, he's a charisma vacuum with a silly voice.

Then again I suppose people who say that just want someone who will cancel Brexit.

 

[Raheem]

I cannot understand why people keep suggesting Starmer is some sort of leadership candidate, he's a charisma vacuum with a silly voice.

Last privately-educated Oxbridge white male in with a shot. What's not to like?

 

[Wookey]

Wookey : I suspect Yossarian wasn't being entirely serious

I thought it didn't make sense from Yossarian especially! Apologies to everyone.

 

[treelover]

From the IWCA:

“Coming out unequivocally against Brexit damages Labour less in purely electoral terms than coming out for it, as much of Labour’s working class base deserted the party long ago. The Oxford researchers Jon Mellon and Geoffrey Evans found in 2014 that ‘Labour’s move to the ‘liberal consensus’ on the EU and immigration left many of their core voters out in the cold a long time before UKIP were an effective political presence. These voters left Labour in 2001, 2005 and 2010.’ Labour accepting the liberal agenda on first Brexit, and then presumably everything else, only further exacerbates this process.

If one wants to give the Corbyn leadership some credit, one might say they at least have some vestigial awareness of the danger taking this path entails. When Transport Secretary Chris Grayling recently said that blocking Brexit would 'open the door to extremist populist political forces in this country of the kind we see in other countries in Europe’, Labour’s David Lammy accused him of ‘gutter politics’ and ‘appeasement’ while Nick Ryan of Hope Not Hate said the remark ‘simply plays into the hands of those extremists seeking to use Brexit as a platform to boost their profile.’

While Grayling’s timing may well have been cynically motivated, the observation is not wrong. What most of the political, economic and media elite have wanted since the Brexit vote is as close to neo-liberalism as usual as possible, with the minimum of disruption emanating from this democratic aberration. Should they succeed, any semi-competent populist right movement would be able to adopt a narrative of class and democratic betrayal, and position themselves as the alternative to the entire condescending liberal establishment. It’s a narrative that would have resonance for one simple reason: there would be a good deal of truth to it.

And where the BNP took over half a million votes at the 2010 general election, close to a million in the 2009 Euro election, and UKIP 3.8 million votes in 2015, this narrative would in the first instance have a pool of 17 million disproportionately working class Leave voters to pitch to. So while middle-class ultra-Remainers like to pitch the idea that Brexit = fascism, it is the contempt for democratic expression, and the longer-term fundamental retreat from class politics by the left, that creates the imminent risk. Furthermore, there is nothing the Labour party can do to address this: it is a task for the class itself and those who believe in it as the ultimate agent of change.

Good to see their perspective, really value it, Main issue at the moment for Momentum seems to be AbbotGate

 

[paolo]

Where is this from/who said it?

Keir Starmer, yesterday I think.

 

[paolo]

Starmer keeps going off-message.

Tories and Corbyn are consistent. This needs to be kept to parliament, the public must not be involved.

 

[Pickman's model]

Starmer keeps going off-message.

Tories and Corbyn are consistent. This needs to be kept to parliament, the public must not be involved.

Yeh we know where it ends when the publick have a say

 

[SpookyFrank]

Starmer keeps going off-message.

Tories and Corbyn are consistent. This needs to be kept to parliament, the public must not be involved.

I dimly remember something about there having been a referendum already.

Not the brexit we voted for? Well, if you're going to vote for something as vague as 'leave the EU' and leave the rest to the tories you can't really complain if the final details aren't quite as you envisaged them. The people wanted chaos, and they've got it.

 

[William of Walworth]

Meanwhile remain groups are already using fake news in Facebook advertising, apparently brexit threatens endangered animals

What sort? Furry cuddly animals?

Super Furry Animals here in Wales, if you don't mind

 

[paolo]

I dimly remember something about there having been a referendum already.

General already. Why won’t socialists just accept they lost!

 

[Ranbay]

"Only 69 sleeps until Brexit!"

 

[DexterTCN]

A car bomb's gone off in Derry.

 

[Ming]

Yada yada, wake up Sheeple etc. Stuff your words, show me your money!

£20 says we won't have a no deal Brexit by the end of March.

You’re on!

 

[Baronage-Phase]

A car bomb's gone off in Derry.

Yep it happened at about 8 30
In front of courthouse.

 

[DexterTCN]

Yep it happened at about 8 30
In front of courthouse.

BBC's reporting it as londonderry

 

[Ming]

You do understand that the tory party - the one with these medium-long term evil plans you briefly outline - supported and campaigned to remain in the EU and that most tory MPs today still want to remain. Would that not suggest that if you are correct about their intentions then these super competent politicians deciding that they can best achieve this under the aegis of the EU (probably looking at the EU doing what you outline in country after country in europe over the last decade+) then this throws up[ serious doubtsd about your and others analysis of what both the EU and remain is?

I know it’s a neo-liberal organization. And i’m sure Corbyn and JRM (both not fans of the EU) have different reasons for an exit. That said I do think the Tories will use it as an excuse to asset strip the country. As to remain Tories...OK they’re not a monolithic group with identical opinions but come ‘no-deal’ they’ll all try and profit from it. I just wish people on the left (my side) woul stop calling them stupid. You see a lot of that on CiF also. Look at the track record since 1979. They’ve pretty much achieved everything they set out to achieve. Brexit’ll be their endgame.

 

[SpackleFrog]

You’re on!

Done.

Can I have an independent witness that if there is not a no deal Brexit by March 30th Ming owes me £20 please?

 

[butchersapron]

I know it’s a neo-liberal organization. And i’m sure Corbyn and JRM (both not fans of the EU) have different reasons for an exit. That said I do think the Tories will use it as an excuse to asset strip the country. As to remain Tories...OK they’re not a monolithic group with identical opinions but come ‘no-deal’ they’ll all try and profit from it. I just wish people on the left (my side) woul stop calling them stupid. You see a lot of that on CiF also. Look at the track record since 1979. They’ve pretty much achieved everything they set out to achieve. Brexit’ll be their endgame.

That's not really much in that that responds to what I posted

 

[DexterTCN]

Done.

Can I have an independent witness that if there is not a no deal Brexit by March 30th Ming owes me £20 please?

em...the norm is to donate it to the server fund

 

[Baronage-Phase]

BBC's reporting it as londonderry

Yeah. Derry.

 

[Ming]

Done.

Can I have an independent witness that if there is not a no deal Brexit by March 30th Ming owes me £20 please?

It’s a bet. I’ll pay up if i lose. And funnily enough i hope i do.

 

[Ming]

That's not really much in that that responds to what I posted

I think a lot of remain Tories are lying about being remainers (including Cameron). I think if we leave the EU we’ll be toast economically. Yes, its full of neo-liberal technocrats but you can’t reform anything from outside the tent.