TruXta
tired
He's upper class and decidedly not a professional of any sort.
Is Brexit actually going to happen?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yes.
If, in the past, we'd been asked to imagine an election in which both 'options' were fronted/run by tory liars...maybe we'd have predicted a shitstorm of epic proportions?
Mr Moose
What the hell are we supposed to tell the kids?
No, it’s proof that one campaign hit the right notes for enough people to make a win. That those notes were nationalist and xenophobic and appear to have cemented a belief among many of Labour’s traditional voters that this is what delivers wins for them is a bit of a problem imo.
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
A response to something in the betting thread, but I am not at all convinced that extending article 50 is a likely option. While on the face of it many MPs would prefer that to a no-deal, I am not convinced either major party wants to awaken the wrath of the hard leavers at this point - which extending article 50 would surely do. I also think extending article 50 would push Brexit closer to the next election, which is highly undesirable for the Tories, who need the mess to be cleared at least a bit before the next election. I think no deal is still very much an option - May has always been a sacrificial lamb who will be cleared out the way once the chaos of Brexit is over. Since that's her role anyway, why not push her to create the higher level chaos of no-deal brexit, get the whole clusterfuck out of the way, put in a new leader and have time to sort things out a bit before the next election. I also think another option is some sort of fudge where May gets the approval of parliament for something that she then interprets as approval for her deal, and she goes ahead with it over the howls of MPs. Again that's career-ending, but her career has a clock ticking on it anyway, so why not?
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
might as well say she'll be pm for life then
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
missed the story about russian prostitutes at the time
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Would we be in a different position now if someone other than Theresa May had been 'in charge'? I'm not sure we would: we might be sitting with a slightly different compromise deal but still with no majority in the public or parliament in favour of it. Of course everyone enjoys watching and accusing government/parliament ineptitude but the ineptitude happened at the point the referendum was set and with a marginal win for leave it seems pretty inevitable we'd end up like this.
Ask a stupid question/get a stupid answer.
Ask a stupid question/get a stupid answer.
No, we probably wouldn't. She's made some mistakes no doubt, but I reckon the narrative of May being uniquely incompetent is overplayed - she has an impossible coalition of interests to hold together, and it would be impossible for anyone (cf the same narrative across the floor re: Corbyn).
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Not convinced that Labour couldn't have done better; had conference sanctioned 'red lines' comparable to those eventually agreed upon, (CU, 'worker rights' etc.), the supra-state would have been more comfortable with such an agreed withdrawal.
Oh, I think Labour could have made a better hash of it. I though teucher meant if the same parties were in the same positions, but with different leaders.
Supine
Newt Member
Luckily she hasn't worn those trousers again
Supine
Newt Member
At least negotiating strategy and red lines would have been discussed. On the negative side corbyn wanted to trigger article 50 the day after the referendum.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
The incompetence really lies in getting yourself (and all of us) into that position, though.
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
Yeah, not sure the Tories could have come up with anything different. Another reason I still think we might leave in March. Once you accept the logic that there is no 'good' way to leave that would keep everyone happy, and no way to undo the referendum without destroying your party, that leaves only the bad ways to leave. If you have to leave in a bad way, why not do it as quick as possible - rip off the sticking plaster and get the fucking thing over with. I feel this is what May has been pushed towards, and I'm not sure any Tory leader would have done any better.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I think that the EU's reaction to a Corbyn led withdrawal negotiation would have been even more obdurate and unbending - the thing they really do not want to happen and really do want to close the door on for the good of their wider undemocratic neo-liberal project is a successful exit from the left that shows that things like workers rights 'state aid' citizen rights etc are not in fact tied to the EU or are evil. That sort of thing being well managed is everything they fear.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Added to the the loss of x number of votes in the commons, is her catastrophic loss of authority within the party and in the commons more widely. I wonder what proportion of the hassle shes had she would have not have had without that loss?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
To be accurate, as leader of HMLO, he said he wanted to trigger A50 the day after the referendum. There may well have been strategising behind such pressure on May.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Don't agree (though, of course all speculation). I think that faced with Corbyn at the outset, (& then unsure of the potential 'domino effect') the supra-state would have seen the opportunity to lash together an 'agreement' most favourable for an easy Brejoin in the medium term.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
As in, a deal that wasn't really bothered about NI interests?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Literally what he said in a live interview was:
“The British people have made their decision. We must respect that result and Article 50 has to be invoked now so that we negotiate an exit from European Union.
If he had put the now at the start of that second sentence it changes things immensely and brings it closer to what he shortly after clarified was his meaning, that now the vote has been held and the results know that it's clear article 50 has to be triggered - that the referendum cannot and should not be ignored. And remember, this was at the time of the first flurry of non-binding rubbish so it was important to make this very clear.
"I may not have put that as well as I should have done," he told presenter Evan Davis.
"The view I was putting was that Article 50 will be invoked at some point. I did not mean it should be invoked on Friday morning and we should rush over to Brussels and start negotiating things away because clearly the negotiations are going to be very long and very complicated."
“The British people have made their decision. We must respect that result and Article 50 has to be invoked now so that we negotiate an exit from European Union.
If he had put the now at the start of that second sentence it changes things immensely and brings it closer to what he shortly after clarified was his meaning, that now the vote has been held and the results know that it's clear article 50 has to be triggered - that the referendum cannot and should not be ignored. And remember, this was at the time of the first flurry of non-binding rubbish so it was important to make this very clear.
"I may not have put that as well as I should have done," he told presenter Evan Davis.
"The view I was putting was that Article 50 will be invoked at some point. I did not mean it should be invoked on Friday morning and we should rush over to Brussels and start negotiating things away because clearly the negotiations are going to be very long and very complicated."
One which wasn't bothered about a border in the Irish sea, at least. The DUP's interests =/= NI interests.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I think you may well be underestimating the rigid ideological dogmatism of the EU technocrats and the unaccountable people in charge of the process and their utter determination that their way is the only way. They would have attempted to vietnamise him - precisely on domino effect grounds.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Fucking moron.
There will be people who voted Remain who will be very angry. Never mind the fact that 17 million people are not all old men.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I think that post of wolveryeti demonstrates perfectly why only stupid bastards use gammon (i can guess what pic will follow this btw) - because it ties you into highlighting the common ground you share with these pro-capital, pro-eugenics class doesn't exist sons of privilege like that. It says well i can forget everything else, they don't matter that much to me - that, in fact, i don't give too much of a shit about the social issues that need politically addressing.Fucking moron.
There will be people who voted Remain who will be very angry. Never mind the fact that 17 million people are not all old men.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yeah, it's a good point; I suppose we shouldn't get too drawn into such whatifery!
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
(Ah i wasn't thinking of that picture - was expecting the only stupid bastards use heroin one from the 80s, probably being worn by new model army).He won't use the picture now, he'll say Gammon isn't racist
philosophical
Well-Known Member
There is a treaty to have a common travel area with the EU.
There will be no brexit (if the word 'Ieave' means what I think it does) unless that changes.
There will be no brexit (if the word 'Ieave' means what I think it does) unless that changes.
andysays
Love and solidarity
What do you think it means, and what is the significance of the CTA?
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