Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[SaskiaJayne]

It all obviously depends a lot on how the Brexit negotiations go and what happens in domestic politics over the next five years. But, broadly, I would predict that one of the key effects of Brexit would be to increase the influence of capital over public policy relative to what it is now. How far that happens will be a factor of how much of a Brexit we get. But if, for example, we are in a situation where the country is hemorrhaging manufacturing jobs (I think this is likely with a hard Brexit), the government will be forced to make concessions to manufacturers in order to stem the bleed. Ditto for financial services. A government which tried to resist couldn't last. So, in a nightmare scenario, I don't think having a Labour government will help very much. If things are less drastic, having a Labour government might compensate for some of the negative effects (or it might not), but it won't do anything to prevent them, and there's no foreseeable way that we will be any better off under a Labour government post-Brexit than we would under a Labour government sans Brexit.

It depends who you mean by “we”. It does appear the right wing brexiteers plans include allowing US medical insurers in to slowly privatise the NHS & one can be fairly sure the tax breaks would all be for the rich & the welfare state would continue to shrink.

Conversely it would appear Labour are willing to build council houses & generally have policies generally more friendly to those on lower incomes. So if by “we” we mean those on lower incomes them whatever the given state of the economy then “we” will be better off with Labour.

This may relate to kabbes earlier point that growth in the economy does not benefit the poor if only the rich benefit from that growth.

 

[Raheem]

Conversely it would appear Labour are willing to build council houses & generally have policies generally more friendly to those on lower incomes. So if by “we” we mean those on lower incomes them whatever the given state of the economy then “we” will be better off with Labour.

That might be true, but only to the extent that it might be true irrespective of Brexit. Council houses, for example, are something that may or may not happen whether we do or don't leave the EU. The only connecting factor I can think of that any public investment proposal might be harder to realise if tax revenues fall significantly and/or the cost of government borrowing rises.

 

[Supine]

The nightmare scenarios being presented all seem to rely on a post brexit UK with a right wing Tory government in charge being led presumably by the likes of Johnson, Gove, Fox et al? It does seem more likely though that we will end up with a post brexit UK being run by a Corbyn led Labour majority government who would presumably take the country in a completely different direction?

You seem very positive about a labour win next time. I can't see any evidence so far that corbyn will win however badly the conservatives do. And they surely can't do any worse than they have been

 

[Raheem]

You seem very positive about a labour win next time. I can't see any evidence so far that corbyn will win however badly the conservatives do. And they surely can't do any worse than they have been

Worse than low 40s in the polls? I think they will manage it.

 

[mojo pixy]

I voted Remain because there was no actual plan for the UK to leave the EU.
I think starting a big project without a plan is a terrible idea.
Nobody knew what we were voting for. We still don't know what we've voted for.

 

[toblerone3]

I voted Remain because there was no actual plan for the UK to leave the EU.
I think starting a big project without a plan is a terrible idea.
Nobody knew what we were voting for. We still don't know what we've voted for.

The EU needs to come up with an explicit VISION with capital letters.

 

[mojo pixy]

I think it's the UK that needs to come up with a vision. We should have had the vision before the vote, tbf.

 

[Supine]

I think it's the UK that needs to come up with a vision. We should have had the vision before the vote, tbf.

That is the EU's attitude. Quiet rightly.

 

[DotCommunist]

'the UK' by which we mean the tory party in this instance had a vision. That was project fear .2, watch the proles roll over and then plain sailing till jolly dave hands over to anointed successor and let the austerity continue, nay let it deepen. Literally thats the plan they had. Whatever else you want to say, those plans may have encountered some difficulties now.

 

[Winot]

Article on the Irish border issue. Sets out alleged Dublin tests.

https://www.politico.eu/article/dublins-5-brexit-demands-show-path-to-sufficient-progress/

 

[sealion]

Nobody knew what we were voting for. We still don't know what we've voted for.

People knew they didn't want more of the same either so voted leave regardless. No shame in that.

 

[mojo pixy]

There's nothing to say it won't be more of the same.

 

[not-bono-ever]

The EU needs to come up with an explicit VISION with capital letters.

A new one that I heard today from some management speak types- what we need is an *ideas shower*

Hopefully a *golden ideas shower*

 

[Raheem]

A new one that I heard today from some management speak types- what we need is an *ideas shower*

Hopefully a *golden ideas shower*

Well, we've definitely got a shower. If the EU have got some ideas then we're good to go.

 

[mojo pixy]

Still, there's always hope.
I hope there is.

 

[mojo pixy]

Shit. Reduced to hope.
I'd swap hope for a good plan, any day.

 

[coley]

So it's a question of borders. Why? Does collective benefit stop at the Channel?

Buggered if I know where you are going with this? the whole idea of leaving the EU is to get back control of our National decision making, esp in where our taxes are spent.
I'm very much in favour of helping out others who are worse off than us, but we should decide on our priorities.

 

[DotCommunist]

Shit. Reduced to hope.
I'd swap hope for a good plan, any day.

Baldrick would have had a plan

 

[gosub]

Buggered if I know where you are going with this? the whole idea of leaving the EU is to get back control of our National decision making, esp in where our taxes are spent.
I'm very much in favour of helping out others who are worse off than us, but we should decide on our priorities.

racist.


(sorry, some of the shit on facebook sinks in)

 

[mojo pixy]

Baldrick would have had a plan

A cunning one though. Not a good one.

 

[ska invita]

'the UK' by which we mean the tory party in this instance had a vision. That was project fear .2, watch the proles roll over and then plain sailing till jolly dave hands over to anointed successor and let the austerity continue, nay let it deepen. Literally thats the plan they had. Whatever else you want to say, those plans may have encountered some difficulties now.

there were a few visions out there in the mainstream. That was one. Another involved less people committing the crime of speaking foreign in public. For those of us who might speak foreign in public, or just look foreign in public, that vision had a certain poigniancy.

 

[coley]

GDP , like Inflation, is often seen as shorthand as to how well *we* are doing - although this is bollocks when viewed alone , its often quoted, as it has that emotional trigger of perceived wellbeing for many

kabbes has it about right, GDP? productivity indexes? all the metrics of corporations/capitalism screwing the last ounce out of the working class.
Ooooh GDP has fallen by .0001%"..."..panic, ...cobra meetings....CBI warned of this happening due to Brexit...
Oh bollocks.
This country is awash with money, just needs a bit of 'sensible redistribution'
You can afford to spend 17k on a bottle of wine that you don't even know if it's drinkable? What's that, you own 20 millions worth of antique cars?
Let's have a look at your recent tax returns me old son
I would concede that capitalism has benefitted many, but I would argue that capitalism is now 'out of control' and needs serious and urgent restraint.
That 'restraint' will never happen in a superstate, be it the EU, the US or even Putins Russia.

 

[coley]

His main mistake is what to choose to rail against. Per capita GDP is only interesting when measured against other countries' per capita GDP. It has almost no meaning measured against itself over time, other than as a measure of inflation.

The point stands that specific measures of the economy are a poor measure of personal well-being, but it's inane to suggest that there isn't some link between the economic well-being of the state and the well-being of its citizens.

But the "well being" of certain privileged 'parts of the state' as opposed to the general "well being"?

 

[DotCommunist]

there were a few visions out there in the mainstream. That was one. Another involved less people committing the crime of speaking foreign in public. For those of us who might speak foreign in public, or just look foreign in public, that vision had a certain poigniancy.

happy birthday for yesterday

obviously racism did not vanish with the crumbling of UKIP, it wouldn't have vanished if we'd stayed in- can we forget labours immigration mug? their pandering to it all? I can't. Its one of the reasons I still can't vote for them. I think it was post-brexit we had sarah champion on the 'pakistani peados' chat its a problem thats not going away. How many years have we had this stuff endorsed from all sides of the party political spectrum, eliding refugee with EU migrant, declaring this man 'illegal' and tarring entire communities with the actions of x individual ec etc. Non stop tabloid and socially sanctioned racism. anti immigration vans, yarls wood.

We got two arguments presented, two sides of the right, one the more overtly xenophobic, the other edging closer to economic nationalism as defined within a european framework happy to accommodate member states with racist policies and rhetoric. And yes, I know this is easy for me to say, given who I am. The EU is pefectly happy with member states engaging in the most egregious racist state-sanctioned behaviour though, we know this.

 

[coley]

Anyway, back to Brexit, Verhofstadt has sent Barnier a note saying that the current state of play on citizens' rights and Ireland won't count as sufficient progress.

Read, 45billion is a step in the right direction, but we want more, sooner.
Reply should be........fuck right off,....now 40billion.
Jeez, rather than the pension liabilities for the trough feeders and other bits and pieces, where does the EU justify its blackmail?

 

[Raheem]

But the "well being" of certain privileged 'parts of the state' as opposed to the general "well being"?

Fair point. I guess the end of privilege will be one of the upsides of Brexit.

 

[ska invita]

happy birthday for yesterday

obviously racism did not vanish with the crumbling of UKIP, it wouldn't have vanished if we'd stayed in- can we forget labours immigration mug? their pandering to it all? I can't. Its one of the reasons I still can't vote for them. I think it was post-brexit we had sarah champion on the 'pakistani peados' chat its a problem thats not going away. How many years have we had this stuff endorsed from all sides of the party political spectrum, eliding refugee with EU migrant, declaring this man 'illegal' and tarring entire communities with the actions of x individual ec etc. Non stop tabloid and socially sanctioned racism. anti immigration vans, yarls wood.

We got two arguments presented, two sides of the right, one the more overtly xenophobic, the other edging closer to economic nationalism as defined within a european framework happy to accommodate member states with racist policies and rhetoric. And yes, I know this is easy for me to say, given who I am. The EU is pefectly happy with member states engaging in the most egregious racist state-sanctioned behaviour though, we know this.

i hear you dc. None the less, me and/or my girlfriend got shouted at to Leave from a van the day after the vote. The effect of which didn't make me regret abstaining, put it that way.
Visions....

 

[coley]

Is that likely to happen? Could it be legislated against? What happens on the EU's Eastern borders?

Obviously its an issue if there is a no deal situation but presumably its an issue now because a deal is trying to be done.

What happens on the EU's Eastern borders?

Not a problem, 10 foot high barbed wire fences and "security forces" that make the SAS look like social workers! The EU at its 'inclusive best''

 

[coley]

Fair point. I guess the end of privilege will be one of the upsides of Brexit.

It's usual, when being sarcastic or attempting humour to include some of these
'Removing privilege' I hope, will be that much easier the 'closer to home' that privilege is

 

[Raheem]

'Removing privilege' I hope, will be that much easier the 'closer to home' that privilege is

I don't see any reason to suppose so, or even that it will be.