Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Winot]

Is this down to the process of negotiatons with the EU ? They seem to be setting the agenda and calling all the shots, maybe it could have been sorted but those lovely caring blokes at the Eu want to cause fear and uncertainty for there members.

They’re setting the agenda because they are united, organised and know what they want. And it’s an EU process.

The EU set out their position on citizenship in June. It’s pretty fair imo but does require ECJ oversight which May has foolishly made a red line.

 

[Winot]

What outcome do you forsee ?

I’m not up to speed with the detail and am by no means an expert, so don’t know.

 

[Winot]

My guess is just based on reading the commentary, and the fact that the citizenship issue has lots of factors and there can be give and take to reach a compromise.

I really can’t see how the NI border issue can be solved though.

 

[gosub]

I really can’t see how the NI border issue can be solved though.

Jump ramps.

 

[sealion]

because they are united

Questionable wether it's member states are mind.

 

[Winot]

Questionable wether it's member states are mind.

So far they are. They have given Barnier a clear negotiating mandate and he had stuck to it.

Might change of course.

 

[sealion]

Monies

 

[DotCommunist]

You may need to spell out why you think this is especially relevant to the thread.

well, its been explicitly spelled out the disparity in real terms that correlate to leave areas- this in response to feverish abstracts about 'growth'. You see you lot really do want to have the cake and eat it. Littlebabyjesus for instants wants to be pious about borders while ignoring racist schengian ones.
People want to argue about growth as defined by those whose metrics are important to their own narrow interests, those whose arguments being parroted would see you as pondlife btw. Its pointed out that this might not be the greatest way to discuss these things with any real meaning to people, you react as if you'd been tasked with ending world hunger rather than being shown your focus is ill equipped to deal with why people voted out.


in the end I think some of you have a very hard time believing that people have had it shit for quite some time. Which is why LBJ confidently predicted 'things will get shitter' asi if people hadn't noticed that ongoing proccess. Oh but its not like kids are begging in the street is it which we have had on these threads.

so the relevance of the economic situation, the disparities, discussed in that blog is why it was posted.

 

[sealion]

All the negotiating seems pointless seeing as were either gonna die from Chicken poisoning or be be driven off the side of a cliff. It's death by cliff for me if i had to choose

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Here's a prediction to hold me to in a few years:

If brexit happens, economic inequality in the UK will increase significantly during the first five years post-EU.

Take the person who after 40 years of EU has nothing. Multiply his nothing by any number you like, what has he now got?

 

[sealion]

No cliff Richard puns please

 

[Teaboy]

It's death by cliff for me if i had to choose,

Given the time of year this is inevitable.

 

[Teaboy]

No cliff Richard puns please

Too late.

 

[DotCommunist]

brexit time
north korean missiles and whine

 

[Raheem]

Take the person who after 40 years of EU has nothing. Multiply his nothing by any number you like, what has he now got?

Is a hypothetical existence in a discussion on a webforum not enough for him?

 

[sealion]

Question for those who voted remain. We keep hearing, reading that leave voters didn't know what they were voting for. Did the remainers know what they were voying for ? Where do they see the Eu going ? What's the future for us if we were to stay in ? I ask because the EU won't stand still, it will keep on ploughing ahead/ moving with the times. So why did you vote remain and what's in store for it's members next ?

 

[sealion]

This gave a smile. A quote from hedge fund manager, investment banker and remainer- Gina miller.

" A cabal of tycoons would see their wealth and influence turbocharged, while the mass of the population would see their prosperity, their security and, ultimately, their liberty dwindle away. And this is the dark nature of the inner doll: the end of the western model of capitalism married to liberal democracy. The turbulence caused by crashing out of the EU would just be another opportunity for these individuals"

No irony there.

Strip away the layers and Brexit becomes ever more murky | Gina Miller

 

[Teaboy]

Question for those who voted remain. We keep hearing, reading that leave voters didn't know what they were voting for. Did the remainers know what they were voying for ? Where do they see the Eu going ? What's the future for us if we were to stay in ? I ask because the EU won't stand still, it will keep on ploughing ahead/ moving with the times. So why did you vote remain and what's in store for it's members next ?

Well, if you're Catalonian its a big old blind eye whilst you get a truncheon wrapped round your head.

 

[kebabking]

Question for those who voted remain. We keep hearing, reading that leave voters didn't know what they were voting for. Did the remainers know what they were voying for ? Where do they see the Eu going ? What's the future for us if we were to stay in ? I ask because the EU won't stand still, it will keep on ploughing ahead/ moving with the times. So why did you vote remain and what's in store for it's members next ?

i voted remain, though not out of any great love for the EU, nor out of any great desire to go where the EU has been straining at the harness to get to.

my vote was primarily based on geo-strategic issues. it can pretty much be boiled down to 'better to be in a very big, very rich gang than a very small, not nearly so rich gang'. big, bitey sharks don't attack Orca's, but seals are very much on the menu..

i also assumed that the process would be flooded with bad blood, and that there wouldn't be a recognition of mutal interest, just lots of antagonism and cutting off noses to spite faces.

i will caveat my 'remain' vote by saying that having had some experience within the nacient EU military/external action apparatus and therefore having been exposed to the 'deep EU' thoughts on such things, my vote may well have been different in 5 years time.

 

[Winot]

Brexit is looking good news for bankers:

 

[sealion]

Yeah the bankers have been on there knees for years under the EU

 

[sealion]

i will caveat my 'remain' vote by saying that having had some experience within the nacient EU military/external action apparatus and therefore having been exposed to the 'deep EU' thoughts on such things, my vote may well have been different in 5 years time.

That's why i asked the question. What's in store for the future if we stay was one of my concerns.

 

[SaskiaJayne]

The nightmare scenarios being presented all seem to rely on a post brexit UK with a right wing Tory government in charge being led presumably by the likes of Johnson, Gove, Fox et al? It does seem more likely though that we will end up with a post brexit UK being run by a Corbyn led Labour majority government who would presumably take the country in a completely different direction?

 

[Winot]

Yeah the bankers have been on there knees for years under the EU

Well it looks like the EU has a regulation which caps bonuses. The article says:

“The UK and the EU have long clashed over the bonus cap, with the UK threatening to legally challenge the measure before eventually introducing it.”

So as a result of leaving it looks like the bankers will be even better off.

 

[sealion]

Well it looks like the EU has a regulation which caps bonuses. The article says:

“The UK and the EU have long clashed over the bonus cap, with the UK threatening to legally challenge the measure before eventually introducing it.”

So as a result of leaving it looks like the bankers will be even better off.

I never mentioned bonuses. Why did you vote to remain ? Where do you see the EU (in it's current form ) heading ? Whats in store for the future ?

 

[pocketscience]

Is this the thread where a man with an rather high income tells us all that wealth is immaterial to happiness?

money?
Depression and Antidepressants: A Nordic Perspective
The World's Happiest Countries Take The Most Antidepressants

 

[DotCommunist]

I never mentioned bonuses

bankers perks are a symptom and a Mirror headline ennit, not a serious look.

 

[Winot]

Why did you vote to remain ?

Non-exhaustive list:

1. The university sector (particularly in science) is closely enmeshed with the EU. There are loads of people and projects doing really good work.The people are EU nationals and the money comes from the EU. That is all threatened by leaving.

2. I don't believe that the UK is or should be a global big hitter. I think we are better off in a club pooling resources.

3. Free trade with our neighbours.

4. Free movement of people is a wonderful thing. The downsides (to some) of immigration could have been tempered by other means.

5. I had a fairly good idea that leaving would be very difficult and take years of planning and resources. That isn't a reason not to leave if you are certain that being out is better than being in, but it tips the balance in favour of staying in. I'd have needed to be convinced that being out was certain to be better in order for leaving to have been worth the pain.

6. And in any event I do not believe that the destination will be better. I believe that we are much more likely to be squashed by the US and China outside of the EU. I believe that the people who are likely to end up running the UK want a deregulated Singapore style country. I've read Daniel Hannan and I don't want his like in charge.

As for the future of the EU without us - I don't really know. If we had stayed then there might have been a prospect for a two speed EU that might have worked.

 

[magneze]

Brexit is looking good news for bankers:

View attachment 121678

Man without ability to do thing says thing could happen. Terrific.

 

[Raheem]

The nightmare scenarios being presented all seem to rely on a post brexit UK with a right wing Tory government in charge being led presumably by the likes of Johnson, Gove, Fox et al? It does seem more likely though that we will end up with a post brexit UK being run by a Corbyn led Labour majority government who would presumably take the country in a completely different direction?

It all obviously depends a lot on how the Brexit negotiations go and what happens in domestic politics over the next five years. But, broadly, I would predict that one of the key effects of Brexit would be to increase the influence of capital over public policy relative to what it is now. How far that happens will be a factor of how much of a Brexit we get. But if, for example, we are in a situation where the country is hemorrhaging manufacturing jobs (I think this is likely with a hard Brexit), the government will be forced to make concessions to manufacturers in order to stem the bleed. Ditto for financial services. A government which tried to resist couldn't last. So, in a nightmare scenario, I don't think having a Labour government will help very much. If things are less drastic, having a Labour government might compensate for some of the negative effects (or it might not), but it won't do anything to prevent them, and there's no foreseeable way that we will be any better off under a Labour government post-Brexit than we would under a Labour government sans Brexit.