Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Teaboy]

Not really sure that you could put one UK government minister in a room and get a consensus on whether there should be a hard or open border.

Is anyone advocating a hard border?

A quick search suggests there are a couple like this Councillor from FF: FF Councillor in shock 'hard border' call - Independent.ie

She seems a bit obsessed with immigrants though.

 

[Raheem]

Not at all, those are very relevant. I'm only asking people to stop quoting predictions for "economic growth" as if they have any relevance whatsoever to people's everyday lives. If you want to address unemployment then you need to look at structural issues such as labour relations. And if you want to address infant malnutrition then you should place inequality first and foremost.

And what happens if I don't do that, given my relatively limited power in the situation?

 

[Silas Loom]

Not at all, those are very relevant. I'm only asking people to stop quoting predictions for "economic growth" as if they have any relevance whatsoever to people's everyday lives. If you want to address unemployment then you need to look at structural issues such as labour relations. And if you want to address infant malnutrition then you should place inequality first and foremost.

Freedom of movement is quite clearly a structural issue affecting employment. Even if the outcomes are complex.

Whatever proxies for good times you prefer to GDP, Brexit will have an impact.

 

[kebabking]

No, I'm fully aware of the issues involved - it just strikes me that there is a general consensus on what they don't want to see.

theres certainly concensus in what they want to see, but almost none whatsoever in how it could/should be achieved.

the EU's version is 'simples, either don't leave or divide up your country', which - amazingly, and the astonishment of all - didn't get a wholly positive response. the Irish version is rather more nuanced and understands the politics, but it requires EU support to actually make it work, and nuance and understanding aren't getting EU support at the moment.

the Irish are stuck in a cleft stick - if they don't agree to a non-satisfactory fudge then the time table means there will end up being chaos on Brexit day with the hardest of hard borders, and if they do agree to a non-satisfactory fudge, they then lose all influence within the process to clear it up.

 

[kabbes]

And what happens if I don't do that, given my relatively limited power in the situation?

That seems a rather sulky response.

 

[DotCommunist]

Whatever proxies for good times you prefer to GDP

they told me the 90s was good times as well, and it was in some ways. Didn't expect to hear it being said at this end of near a decades austerity

 

[Raheem]

That seems a rather sulky response.

That seems like a non-answer.

 

[Teaboy]

they told me the 90s was good times as well, and it was in some ways. Didn't expect to hear it being said at this end of near a decades austerity

I've heard that too. All I can remember is going to Helter Skelter at the sanctuary in Milton Keynes, the rest is a bit blurry.

 

[kabbes]

Freedom of movement is quite clearly a structural issue affecting employment. Even if the outcomes are complex.

Whatever proxies for good times you prefer to GDP, Brexit will have an impact.

Yes, of course it will. And I'd like to have a chance to concentrate on that without people getting distracted by whatever growth predictions are currently being made by those who genuinely have a vested interest in growth, because they will be the recipients of it.

It isn't clear to me that the factors that genuinely affect wellbeing, which are chiefly inequality related, are harmed by Brexit. It does very much seem that they are in many ways harmed by membership of the EU, because this is basically a mechanism that allows for wealth distribution from poor to rich. I don't think it is an accident that our membership of the EU has coincided with such rapid increase in inequality.

 

[gosub]

they told me the 90s was good times as well, and it was in some ways. Didn't expect to hear it being said at this end of near a decades austerity

maybe the quality of MDMA impacts on the happiness index

 

[kabbes]

I may have a look for something relating happiness to growth, both economic growth and improvements in living standards.

Japan jumps out at me in that regard. Still a very rich country, but basically about the same amount of rich as it was 25 years ago. Be interesting to know if that stagnation at a high level has coincided with a slump in satisfaction.

On the other hand, the UK has had sufficient growth as to treble its real GDP per capita since 1960 and double it since 1975. Do you think that well being has increased commensurately over that time frame?

 

[kabbes]

That seems like a non-answer.

I'm sorry, what precisely is it you want an answer for? You want me to reassure you that you are so irrelevant to anything that you can happily carry on concentrating on economic growth without it affecting the square root of fuck all? Well, OK then. Be so reassured.

 

[Silas Loom]

Yes, of course it will. And I'd like to have a chance to concentrate on that without people getting distracted by whatever growth predictions are currently being made by those who genuinely have a vested interest in growth, because they will be the recipients of it.

It isn't clear to me that the factors that genuinely affect wellbeing, which are chiefly inequality related, are harmed by Brexit. It does very much seem that they are in many ways harmed by membership of the EU, because this is basically a mechanism that allows for wealth distribution from poor to rich. I don't think it is an accident that our membership of the EU has coincided with such rapid increase in inequality.

So far, orthodox Bennite lexitry. But there isn't a choice on the table between the EU and reversion to some prelapsarian model of equitable distribution (pre-industrial or neo-feudal depending on how your nostalgia is bounded). The real choice is between deep trade relationships with the EU, and striking up new relationships with the US, China and elsewhere - on worse terms, and with fewer protections for employers and consumers. People who cheerlead for Leave because it's consistent with an imaginary scenario where everything is suddenly better are fundamentally irresponsible.

 

[Winot]

It isn't clear to me that the factors that genuinely affect wellbeing, which are chiefly inequality related, are harmed by Brexit. It does very much seem that they are in many ways harmed by membership of the EU, because this is basically a mechanism that allows for wealth distribution from poor to rich. I don't think it is an accident that our membership of the EU has coincided with such rapid increase in inequality.

As well as inequality there are wellbeing issues that affect some people but not others. Families who have mixed EU parentage are going to see their wellbeing take a dive if they lose citizen rights for example. Same for people who would otherwise have gone to live/work in the rEU.

 

[bimble]

It isn't clear to me that the factors that genuinely affect wellbeing, which are chiefly inequality related, are harmed by Brexit. It does very much seem that they are in many ways harmed by membership of the EU, because this is basically a mechanism that allows for wealth distribution from poor to rich. I don't think it is an accident that our membership of the EU has coincided with such rapid increase in inequality.

Has there been a similar exacerbation of inequality in other EU member countries too ? I thought the UK was an outlier in this (the extent of our inequality matching only america and russia or something?) .

 

[kabbes]

Indeed, and these are all reasons I voted remain. But since then, we've had a resurgence of the left in the UK and a retrenchment of the right in the EU. That has rather changed the complexion of how the future might be seized.

 

[Raheem]

I'm sorry, what precisely is it you want an answer for? You want me to reassure you that you are so irrelevant to anything that you can happily carry on concentrating on economic growth without it affecting the square root of fuck all? Well, OK then. Be so reassured.

What I was really looking for was clearer advice, given your complete understanding of economics. If there's a recession, might I be adversely affected, or am I safe so long as I focus on reforming labour law and that other thing you mentioned? And what happens if I get distracted?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Here's a prediction to hold me to in a few years:

If brexit happens, economic inequality in the UK will increase significantly during the first five years post-EU.

 

[DotCommunist]

Has there been a similar exacerbation of inequality in other EU member countries too ? I thought the UK was an outlier in this (the extent of our inequality matching only america and russia or something?) .

how much does a Grecian earn?

Here's a prediction to hold me to in a few years:

If brexit happens, economic inequality in the UK will increase significantly during the first five years post-EU.

as a result of ongoing austerity policies and brexit chaos? probably. Things have been getting worse for a long time, for some.

 

[Silas Loom]

how much does a Grecian earn?.

Whatever he's ode.

 

[kebabking]

Whatever he's ode.

we need a groan button...

 

[Silas Loom]

we need a groan button...

Lazy Llama

Another request for Xenforo Post Ratings . . .

 

[danny la rouge]

Heres a blog post this thread needs:

Neoliberalism works for the world?

"The empirical evidence supports Marx’s view that, under capitalism, poverty (as defined) and inequality of income and wealth have not really improved under capitalism, neoliberal or otherwise. Any improvement in poverty levels globally, however measured, is mainly explained by in state-controlled China and any improvement in the quality and length of life comes from the application of science and knowledge through state spending on education, on sewage, clean water, disease prevention and protection, hospitals and better child development. These are things that do not come from capitalism but from the common weal.

So Marx’s prediction 150 years ago that capitalism would lead to greater concentration and centralisation of wealth, in particular, the means of production and finance, has been borne out. Contrary to the optimism and apologia of mainstream economists like Smith, poverty for billions around the world remains the norm, with little sign of improvement, while inequality within the major capitalist economies increases as capital is accumulated and concentrated in ever smaller groups."

 

[Raheem]

Heres a blog post this thread needs:

Neoliberalism works for the world?

"The empirical evidence supports Marx’s view that, under capitalism, poverty (as defined) and inequality of income and wealth have not really improved under capitalism, neoliberal or otherwise. Any improvement in poverty levels globally, however measured, is mainly explained by in state-controlled China and any improvement in the quality and length of life comes from the application of science and knowledge through state spending on education, on sewage, clean water, disease prevention and protection, hospitals and better child development. These are things that do not come from capitalism but from the common weal.

So Marx’s prediction 150 years ago that capitalism would lead to greater concentration and centralisation of wealth, in particular, the means of production and finance, has been borne out. Contrary to the optimism and apologia of mainstream economists like Smith, poverty for billions around the world remains the norm, with little sign of improvement, while inequality within the major capitalist economies increases as capital is accumulated and concentrated in ever smaller groups."

You may need to spell out why you think this is especially relevant to the thread.

 

[sealion]

if they lose citizen rights for example.

What are the chances if this ? Any evidence that this will happen ?

 

[sealion]

If if if ,,,,,,,,,

 

[Winot]

What are the chances if this ? Any evidence that this will happen ?

It's still up for discussion but is expected to be resolved soon. My guess is that they will solve this one.

However people are nervous because the UK's position up to now leaves EU nationals who have lived for years in the UK in a worse position than they were previously.

 

[sealion]

However people are nervous because the UK's position up to now leaves EU nationals who have lived for years in the UK in a worse position than they were previously.

Is this down to the process of negotiatons with the EU ? They seem to be setting the agenda and calling all the shots, maybe it could have been sorted but those lovely caring blokes at the Eu want to cause fear and uncertainty for there members.

 

[sealion]

My guess is that they will solve this one.

What outcome do you forsee ?

 

[bimble]

Uk was great to my parents when they showed up here 40+years ago and I don’t think they’d get residency now either of them, that’s not EUs fault it’s domestic changes here, hardening attitudes to immigrants.
I don’t think the eu are to blame for people’s anxiety about whether or not they’ll be allowed to stay here after Brexit either , Nobody wants all those ageing brits living in spain to come home after all.