Is Brexit actually going to happen?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
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Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
That doesn't list all countries, Bhutan for example, where happiness is a stated aim of government, is missing too.
This is such a well known phenomenon that it even has its own name -- the Easterlin Paradox. There have been several attempts to debunk the paradox over the years (by one economist in particular) but the latest thinking suggests that even the very, very slight link that appears to exist between GDP and life satisfaction in rich countries is actually explainable by other factors.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
That graph shows a strong correlation between wealth and happiness. A few things I'd also want to see - how do rich and poor within the same country compare? How does the graph look when relating happiness not to wealth but to growth - how much is direction of travel more important than current location? Does that partly explain the outliers in Latin America, a region where there have been significant improvements in overall material wellbeing in recent decades as measured by such things as education levels, nutrition, infant mortality or life expectancy, in stark contrast to sub-Saharan Africa, which dominates the bottom of both charts and has seen precious little improvement in anything.God save us from those that understand a little bit of economics.
My suggestion that growth in GDP -- which is what people are talking about when they talk about "growth" -- is meaningless is not at all something those who understand it would disagree with. Even the Economist, for the love of Pete, have tried to look at alternatives:
https://www.economist.com/news/lead...ng-time-fresh-approach-how-measure-prosperity
And here is the FT pointing out its many flaws:
Has GDP outgrown its use?
But the main point is that it is simply not the case that increased wealth brings increased wellbeing. This is true up to the point that your needs are satisfied and then it ceases to be so. And, in fact, the point at which increased wealth ceases to bring increased wellbeing is pretty darned low.
This references a study -- The Success Paradox -- that indicates the crossover point is about £22,000 in the UK.
GDP per capital versus life satisfaction is well studied, for example here:
It's hard to see in that particular graph, unfortunately (I've seen others where it is clearer), but beyond about $35,000, the trend line is basically vertical. In other words, adding additional GDP per capita beyond that point doesn't really make any difference. It's other cultural factors that matter beyond that point.
Not above $35,000 it doesn't. Nobody is disputing that if a country is truly poor then its wellbeing is improved by additional wealth.
This is the relevant part of the graph
The very slight trend that exists in this part of the curve is readily explained by demographic factors other than wealth.
Well, when you've found those things please let us know. I would be interested to know.
Plenty of people are researching this, and their general conclusions to date are that (a) you really want to have more than about $30,000 per capita; and (b) after that, inequality is the most important factor, with additional wealth being largely irrelevant.
Silas Loom
Hated by both sides
Is this the thread where a man with an rather high income tells us all that wealth is immaterial to happiness?
Who would know better?
I should have thought a person will wealth is as equally qualified to discuss happiness as someone without. Ideally you'd have someone who has experienced both but then you'd really need loads of loads to make it a worthwhile exercise.
Silas Loom
Hated by both sides
Fair point, I suppose.
Also Thailand has sneaked into Latin America. It must be the military junta tribute act thing they've got going on at the moment.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
Srallan makes much of his days as the little man but now he's rich he still looks like an angry scrotum
Winot
I wholeheartedley agree with your viewpoint
I think actually it's a classic U75 thread where someone assumes that (a) because other posters have been talking about topic A those posters (b) care only about topic A and (c) know nothing about topic B.
Silas Loom
Hated by both sides
Anyway, back to Brexit, Verhofstadt has sent Barnier a note saying that the current state of play on citizens' rights and Ireland won't count as sufficient progress.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Take a feather and knock me down with it.
Is the Ireland border thing a real sticking point or a red herring? I can't really work it out because it appears to me that everyone is saying no hard border so why is this proving such an issue. It strikes me as just the latest battle ground for people to sound off about rather than anything that will be particularly difficult to resolve.
Silas Loom
Hated by both sides
Are you trolling?
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Please put this comment a long way up your bottom and don't pull it out again.
This is nonsense, but we don't need to talk about that now. If you don't like GDP as a measure, then you're not obliged to use it. In fact, for argument's sake, let's just agree that GDP is only a number at the end of the day and numbers never hurt anyone, so we can safely not worry about it.
I don't see how that stops us needing to worry about other economic indicators such as, say, unemployment or infant malnutrition. Those are definitely not smoke and mirrors.
Winot
I wholeheartedley agree with your viewpoint
Because if you don't have a hard border and the UK is out of the customs union and single market then goods/services/people can get between the EU and UK freely. So the UK could do a trade deal with the US and the US could flood the EU market with its dodgy chicken via NI.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
All three big points are red herrings, the EU does not want to do a deal, but rather than come out with that and give the UK 2 years to prepare for No Deal they want to string the UK along.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I may have a look for something relating happiness to growth, both economic growth and improvements in living standards.
Japan jumps out at me in that regard. Still a very rich country, but basically about the same amount of rich as it was 25 years ago. Be interesting to know if that stagnation at a high level has coincided with a slump in satisfaction.
No, I'm fully aware of the issues involved - it just strikes me that there is a general consensus on what they don't want to see.
Silas Loom
Hated by both sides
How do you get from that to it suddenly being an easy area to resolve?
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
its our last, best hope to save the country from brexit according to some views.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Not really sure that you could put one UK government minister in a room and get a consensus on whether there should be a hard or open border.
Is that likely to happen? Could it be legislated against? What happens on the EU's Eastern borders?
Obviously its an issue if there is a no deal situation but presumably its an issue now because a deal is trying to be done.
Not at all, those are very relevant. I'm only asking people to stop quoting predictions for "economic growth" as if they have any relevance whatsoever to people's everyday lives. If you want to address unemployment then you need to look at structural issues such as labour relations. And if you want to address infant malnutrition then you should place inequality first and foremost.
Silas Loom
Hated by both sides
There's a pretty clear government consensus that there should be a magic border, using technology which is yet to be invented. They might get a bit shifty on what the transition process to the magic border looks like, though.
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