Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[coley]

Normans

Good idea, blame it all on those Norman ( early EU types)

 

[coley]

Nearly half the country voted (rightly or wrongly) to remain. Didn't Brexiteers use fear as well in their campaign?
Fwiw, the decision has been made and there should be a Brexit regardless of what the 48.1% want.

The most important issue is what happens about the hard border possibility, which seems to be an afterthought with May'sgovt. IMHO.

Sorry hinny, but from where I'm looking, all the EU aristocracy seems to be concerned about is the hole in their budget once we leave, bugger the WC and SMEs.

 

[krtek a houby]

Sorry hinny, but from where I'm looking, all the EU aristocracy seems to be concerned about is the hole in their budget once we leave, bugger the WC and SMEs.

Quite possibly. There's no need for name calling, though

 

[coley]

All speculation and fear mongering until it happens.

From the 'remainers camp' at least.

 

[coley]

Quite possibly. There's no need for name calling, though

'Hinny' is not name calling, it's a friendly term, sorry if you feel offended.

 

[krtek a houby]

'Hinny' is not name calling, it's a friendly term, sorry if you feel offended.

Ok, I misread it at a dig at my parentage. No worries, coley.
Back on topic, yes, it does seem that the EU biggies are worried more about budgets than the people. Not much of a surprise. But into the unknown, will the "independent" UK govt suddenly grow a sense of responsibility to the welfare of its people?

 

[coley]

Ok, I misread it at a dig at my parentage. No worries, coley.
Back on topic, yes, it does seem that the EU biggies are worried more about budgets than the people. Not much of a surprise. But into the unknown, will the "independent" UK govt suddenly grow a sense of responsibility to the welfare of its people?

Who knows? but it's certainly going to be easier to hold local MPs to account, MPs who can't pass the buck to MEPs and their 'superstate'
One thing that bugs me to beyond and back is this 'belief' that the EU actually 'gives us money' rather than RE-distributes money we hand over to them.....less their cut....something highlighted in an BBC education news article, children were alarmed that leaving the EU would mean there would be less money available from the EU for their future education!

 

[redsquirrel]

Sure. But the argument was that it is only right wing neoliberal organisations that believe that Brexit will be damaging and that's clearly not true.

Really? Where have I, or anyone else, made such an argument?

I know plenty of people that I respect (including some posters on this board) that voted Remain because they thought it was the best option for labour. I disagreed with them, but I still consider them comrades and recognise that while our analyses differed the basis of which we thought about the issue was the same (a class based one).

Many, many of the those talking about how leaving the EU will "be damaging" are the same people that have argued for privatisations, de-regulation, how the very mild social-democrat policies Labour campaigned on last time will also damage the economy. By talking about how leaving the EU will cause "economic harm" you are accepting a whole range of assumptions and ideological positions. Ideological positions that support capitalism, that is an absurd road for any socialist to take. You are falling into their trap.

 

[kabbes]

Forget Brexit for a minute and forget the reality of modern politics and just think about this thing called “the economy” without further context. What people mean by “growth in the economy” is itself an ideological position, you see. It is focus on overall national output with no metric for how that is distributed. Let me ask you this. What would help ordinary people more: “growth in the economy” with no change in wealth distribution, or a reduction in inequality with no economic growth?

 

[SaskiaJayne]

Well yes, a change of government could bring about a reduction in inequality & an increase in tax revenues by preventing tax avoidence & evasion with no economic growth. The more the Tories fuck this up the better the chance of a change in government.

 

[Winot]

Forget Brexit for a minute and forget the reality of modern politics and just think about this thing called “the economy” without further context. What people mean by “growth in the economy” is itself an ideological position, you see. It is focus on overall national output with no metric for how that is distributed. Let me ask you this. What would help ordinary people more: “growth in the economy” with no change in wealth distribution, or a reduction in inequality with no economic growth?

Not sure who you’re asking but I would have thought most here recognised the importance of inequality reduction. But imo leaving the EU doesn’t increase the likelihood of that happening, whereas it is likely (imo) to decrease the total pot available to redistribute.

 

[sleaterkinney]

I think the "It was all a plot to cripple the tories" is the best one ever.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

£83bn is today’s headline figure, paid over 40 years, so 7 x £350m a week for 40 years.

 

[SaskiaJayne]

I think the "It was all a plot to cripple the tories" is the best one ever.

There did not need to be any plot to cripple the Tories. Brexit is crippling the Tories well enough & they brought it on themselves. Labour just need to sit in deckchairs & munch popcorn.

 

[sleaterkinney]

£83bn is today’s headline figure, paid over 40 years, so 7 x £350m a week for 40 years.

We should spend that on the NHS instead.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

We should spend that on the NHS instead.

We can spend the remaining 45 x £350m a year on the NHS, is that what ‘remain’ is all about?

 

[Yossarian]

£83bn is today’s headline figure, paid over 40 years, so 7 x £350m a week for 40 years.

The joke's going to be on them if that's payable in pounds.

 

[mauvais]

One thing that bugs me to beyond and back is this 'belief' that the EU actually 'gives us money' rather than RE-distributes money we hand over to them.....less their cut....something highlighted in an BBC education news article, children were alarmed that leaving the EU would mean there would be less money available from the EU for their future education!

Who thinks this aside from some children? But more importantly, as I asked you on Saturday, do you disagree with redistribution or not, and if so, why?

 

[Dr. Furface]

The joke's going to be on them if that's payable in pounds.

The way things are going that sum won't even buy the bus soon

 

[2hats]

The joke's going to be on them if that's payable in pounds.

That’d be why they always specify it in Euro...

 

[coley]

Who thinks this aside from some children? But more importantly, as I asked you on Saturday, do you disagree with redistribution or not, and if so, why?

The redistribution? I certainly don't disagree with it, just that I believe it should remain in the UK.

 

[sleaterkinney]

We can spend the remaining 45 x £350m a year on the NHS, is that what ‘remain’ is all about?

The liabilities are spread over that long, but the payments are not divided up like that, maths fail.

 

[mauvais]

The redistribution? I certainly don't disagree with it, just that I believe it should remain in the UK.

So it's a question of borders. Why? Does collective benefit stop at the Channel?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

The liabilities are spread over that long, but the payments are not divided up like that, maths fail.

Oh, can you bung up the schedule of payments then, for us fails please?

 

[kabbes]

Not sure who you’re asking but I would have thought most here recognised the importance of inequality reduction. But imo leaving the EU doesn’t increase the likelihood of that happening, whereas it is likely (imo) to decrease the total pot available to redistribute.

Not only do I not know whether that is true or not, I don't even have a way of measuring it, because nobody actually tries to systematically capture that kind of metric.

What if "the economy" referred to a basket of goods and services affordable by at least 75% or 90% of society? Health care, housing, food, education, entertainment, etc. And some measure of social wellbeing too -- anxiety, loneliness, purpose. And what if we measured growth in that basket of goods and services as being the growth in the economy? Over the last 50 years, how would that measure fare? Can 75% of the population afford more or less of those things now than 15, 30, 50 years ago? Because "the economy" as it is always measured -- i.e. real GNP per head -- is enormously higher than it was 50 years ago. But I don't see in that time that at least 75% of the population (let alone 90%) is better housed, cared for and educated. I don't see that 75% of the population has better social cohesion. So what has that economic growth actually achieved for 75% of the population? A bigger pot to distribute? Who cares, if the growth of the pot all goes to just 1% of the population?

 

[Winot]

So what you are saying is that the ‘politics’ is more important than ‘economics’? Whereas I am saying that politics starts with the pot and it’s best if you can get both right.

 

[kabbes]

So what you are saying is that the ‘politics’ is more important than ‘economics’? Whereas I am saying that politics starts with the pot and it’s best if you can get both right.

No, I’m saying that what you are measuring and calling “economics” is itself political. You are making a political decision about what to use as your success measure.

 

[Winot]

No, I’m saying that what you are measuring and calling “economics” is itself political. You are making a political decision about what to use as your success measure.

I am not defining ‘success’ by economics alone though. I have made it clear that I believe that life will be worse for a lot of the population post-Brexit. You may disagree. I hope I am wrong.

 

[pocketscience]

So according to the Graun the UK owes €80bn for it's commitments to the EU - yet the EUs commitments to the UK only amount to €20bn.

Argue all you like about redistribution, it's hard to justify being in such a club.

 

[SpookyFrank]

£83bn is today’s headline figure, paid over 40 years, so 7 x £350m a week for 40 years.

Interesting use of maths there. To me 7 x 350m per week x 40 years comes to over five trillion.