Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[SaskiaJayne]

I think we can safely ignore all advice from US investment banks who are simply giving advice to their investors & are always going to attempt to further their own profits. They have their own interests at heart obviously which are not those of normal working people in the UK.

A US investment bank’s advice on foreign investments will advise investment in countries with a cheap flexible labour force with little collective power & little union representation. If they see a possibility of an incoming government changing that then they will advise caution from their investors.

 

[Winot]

So we can ignore Morgan Stanley but when Goldman Sachs tells us that Brexit will be terrible for the economy we have to listen to them?

I'm not arguing that this report by the financial institution is anything but rubbish. I'm arguing that it's hypocritical to argue about how leaving the EU will cause the economy to collapse while dismissing the same arguments by the same set of bastards about Labour.

What do you think about the TUC’s position that Brexit will harm the economy and workers’ rights?

TUC says EU exit would hit wages

 

[Kaka Tim]

So we can ignore Morgan Stanley but when Goldman Sachs tells us that Brexit will be terrible for the economy we have to listen to them?

I'm not arguing that this report by the financial institution is anything but rubbish. I'm arguing that it's hypocritical to argue about how leaving the EU will cause the economy to collapse while dismissing the same arguments by the same set of bastards about Labour.

Its not just goldman sachs saying brexit would be bad though is it? Its everybody apart from the likes of jacob rees mogg and the magical thinkers of Lexit penning furious articles in Workers' Spirit Level or somesuch.

 

[redsquirrel]

What does "harm the economy" actually mean? I've already said economics is a religion, one that I do not subscribe to.

Why focus on workers' rights rather than workers' power? Has been part of the EU stopped the massive increase in insecure unemployment, the contraction of wages, the anti-trade union legislation?

The TUC, and the majority of unions, should listen to the RMT, probably the only union in this country that can actually say that it's really managed to maintain conditions for it's members.

 

[redsquirrel]

Its not just goldman sachs saying brexit would be bad though is it? Its everybody apart from the likes of jacob rees mogg and the magical thinkers of Lexit penning furious articles in Workers' Spirit Level or somesuch.

What like the Bank of England, great. A lovely neutral body, not a deeply ideological institution whose purpose is to further the transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich.

 

[alex_]

What like the Bank of England, great. A lovely neutral body, not a deeply ideological institution whose purpose is to further the transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich.

Pretty sure their low inflation target looks after workers.

Alex

 

[Winot]

Pretty sure their low inflation target looks after workers.

Alex

Haven’t you been paying attention? Red squirrel doesn’t subscribe to inflation.

 

[alex_]

Haven’t you been paying attention? Red squirrel doesn’t subscribe to inflation.

I’d quite like to not subscribe to inflation, how do I sign up ?

Alex

 

[danny la rouge]

Pretty sure their low inflation target looks after workers.

Alex

Come on. Is that the level of political insight and analysis on these boards these days? - In response to redsquirrel's post pointing out that the BofE is not a neutral, dispassionate institution your reply is that they look after workers with their inflation targets?

 

[danny la rouge]

Haven’t you been paying attention? Red squirrel doesn’t subscribe to inflation.

This is the worst kind of strawmanning. Disagree with him by all means, but don't misrepresent what he's saying.

 

[JimW]

Pretty sure their low inflation target looks after workers.

Alex

I thought it was the suppression of our wages helped their inflation target, but there you go

 

[butchersapron]

It's called wage restraint now. All nice and voluntary. It's big in Europe as well.

 

[Winot]

This is the worst kind of strawmanning. Disagree with him by all means, but don't misrepresent what he's saying.

Fair enough - I apologise.

I am just frustrated with ivory tower idealism, whereas in the real world (imo) workers will suffer.

 

[redsquirrel]

Pretty sure their low inflation target looks after workers.

Seriously? BTW how is inflation "controlled" by the BoE?

 

[alex_]

Seriously? BTW how is inflation "controlled" by the BoE?

Really?

The boe’s primacy role is monetary stability which means low inflation, they control this with interest rates and recently quantitive easing.

What do you think they do ? ( when they aren’t grinding the common man into the dirt)

Bank of England - Wikipedia

It also has a free museum which is great, you can hold a real gold bar, it’s heavy.

Alex

 

[not-bono-ever]

Morgan Stanley got 100bn from the bailout in 08 . They are more shit than Goldman Sachs. Or less shit depending on yer perspective.

Recent ipsos mori poll stuff about brexit shown lots of Chinese interest in a hard brexit as it will be a fire sale where they can spunk their wads of cash on emancipated British companies .


No link as on train

 

[yield]

Morgan Stanley got 100bn from the bailout in 08 . They are more shit than Goldman Sachs. Or less shit depending on yer perspective.

Recent ipsos mori poll stuff about brexit shown lots of Chinese interest in a hard brexit as it will be a fire sale where they can spunk their wads of cash on emancipated British companies .

As you know Goldman Sachs were shorting, betting against, the shit they were selling so didn't lose as much as the others. Even so they needed a loan from Warren Buffett.

Really?

The boe’s primacy role is monetary stability which means low inflation, they control this with interest rates and recently quantitive easing.

What do you think they do ? ( when they aren’t grinding the common man into the dirt)

Bank of England - Wikipedia

It also has a free museum which is great, you can hold a real gold bar, it’s heavy.

Alex

That's not the Bank of Englands primary role it's to raise debt for government spending. Quantitative easing was an experiment an attempt to reinflate assets for the rich.

 

[redsquirrel]

Really?

The boe’s primacy role is monetary stability which means low inflation, they control this with interest rates and recently quantitive easing.

As JimW pointed out inflation has been controlled by wage restraint (alongside increase job insecurity and maintaining the correct levels of unemployment).

---------

The last page of nonsense does show why we need a thread on what economics is, why it needs to be rejected.

 

[krtek a houby]

The last page of nonsense does show why we need a thread on what economics is, why it needs to be rejected.

I salute your arrogance.

 

[not-bono-ever]

no economics thread. ever. terrible shit

 

[kabbes]

Really?

The boe’s primacy role is monetary stability which means low inflation, they control this with interest rates and recently quantitive easing.

What do you think they do ? ( when they aren’t grinding the common man into the dirt)

This is what they are supposed to do. However, inflation is classically believed to be suppressed by putting up interest rates, not keeping them low. And quantitative easing is classically supposed to lead to high inflation. So the Bank of England's actions of late have not been those of an institution obsessed by inflation.

In fact, their actions have been perfectly reasonable for a body focussed on trying to keep the levels of capital moving properly. There is too little activity in the economy to be worried about the kind of inflation that can be dealt with by monetary policy, so they haven't been worried about it.

By the way, the classic relationship between inflation and unemployment is an inverse one, i.e. the lower the inflation, the higher the unemployment. This is known as the Phillips curve. So if you believe in the primacy of economic relationships and you wish to emphasise workers over capital, you should be concerned about a state institution devoted to keeping inflation down. Of late, however, the Phillips curve has been just another piece of classical economic wisdom that has taken a battering, reinforcing redsquirrel 's point that (classical) economics is more of a religion than a science.

(I would defend the recent crossover between economics, sociology and psychology that has led to testable and applicable behavioural economic/social psychological insights, but that is not the basis of mainstream economic analysis as things stand).

 

[Silas Loom]

This is what they are supposed to do. However, inflation is classically believed to be suppressed by putting up interest rates, not keeping them low. And quantitative easing is classically supposed to lead to high inflation. So the Bank of England's actions of late have not been those of an institution obsessed by inflation.

In fact, their actions have been perfectly reasonable for a body focussed on trying to keep the levels of capital moving properly. There is too little activity in the economy to be worried about the kind of inflation that can be dealt with by monetary policy, so they haven't been worried about it.

By the way, the classic relationship between inflation and unemployment is an inverse one, i.e. the lower the inflation, the higher the unemployment. This is known as the Phillips curve. So if you believe in the primacy of economic relationships and you wish to emphasise workers over capital, you should be concerned about a state institution devoted to keeping inflation down. Of late, however, the Phillips curve has been just another piece of classical economic wisdom that has taken a battering, reinforcing redsquirrel 's point that (classical) economics is more of a religion than a science.

(I would defend the recent crossover between economics, sociology and psychology that has led to testable and applicable behavioural economic/social psychological insights, but that is not the basis of mainstream economic analysis as things stand).

Was there ever a time when all economists agreed? If it was ever a religion, it was the broadest of churches, and surely the articles of faith on which there has been consensus have varied over the years.

 

[kabbes]

Was there ever a time when all economists agreed? If it was ever a religion, it was the broadest of churches, and surely the articles of faith on which there has been consensus have varied over the years.

They agreed on the fundamentals and disagreed about the interpretations of the arcane texts. Much like the scholars of all religions, really. Classical economics was always based on the concept of the rational economic actor, who was easy to analyse and create simple curves around. Unfortunately, no actual person is a rational economic actor.

 

[Silas Loom]

They agreed on the fundamentals and disagreed about the interpretations of the arcane texts. Much like the scholars of all religions, really. Classical economics was always based on the concept of the rational economic actor, who was easy to analyse and create simple curves around. Unfortunately, no actual person is a rational economic actor.

My impression was that once you get into modern monetary policy you have left the fundamentals behind and wandered into the realm of the post-classical.

 

[kabbes]

My impression was that once you get into modern monetary policy you have left the fundamentals behind and wandered into the realm of the post-classical.

Neo-classical rather than post-classical, I would say. But I am not privy to the discussions held in the BoE, so what do I know? They might actually be using all sorts of theory I've never heard of.

I can say, though, that some of their disaster scenarios I have to provide figures around don't really make any sense to me as a coherent set of economic indicators. So maybe they do actually have a healthy distrust of their own models and are now just interested in planning for things transpiring along completely unprecedented and unexpected lines.

 

[Pickman's model]

My impression was that once you get into modern monetary policy you have left the fundamentals behind and wandered into the realm of the post-classical imaginary .

Cfu

 

[gosub]

What he's saying if I've read him right & from what I e read of Irish history is that the workers were Irish but the bosses were anglo Irish ie brits

Normans

 

[Silas Loom]

Expertise itself is not called into question just because experts disagree, or accept that their expertise has limits and is incomplete. This applies to economics, to psychiatry, and to all those other areas where those on whom expertise is inflicted start wittering about naked emperors.

In short, we're better off when monetary and fiscal policy is determined by people who believe in economic than we'd be if it was determined by people who think it's a con.

 

[Pickman's model]

In short, we're better off when monetary and fiscal policy is determined by people who believe in economic than we'd be if it was determined by people who think it's a con.

pisspoor

 

[gosub]

Expertise itself is not called into question just because experts disagree, or accept that their expertise has limits and is incomplete. This applies to economics, to psychiatry, and to all those other areas where those on whom expertise is inflicted start wittering about naked emperors.

In short, we're better off when monetary and fiscal policy is determined by people who believe in economic than we'd be if it was determined by people who think it's a con.

or..come back Sir Ivan Rodgers all is forgiven