Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Silas Loom]

or..come back Sir Ivan Rodgers all is forgiven

There's nothing to forgive.

 

[sealion]

What do you think about the TUC’s position that Brexit will harm the economy and workers’ rights?

TUC says EU exit would hit wages

But another union chief, the RMT's Mick Cash, said the EU had pursued a "race to the bottom" on workers' rights and could never be reformed.

 

[kabbes]

Expertise itself is not called into question just because experts disagree, or accept that their expertise has limits and is incomplete. This applies to economics, to psychiatry, and to all those other areas where those on whom expertise is inflicted start wittering about naked emperors.

In short, we're better off when monetary and fiscal policy is determined by people who believe in economic than we'd be if it was determined by people who think it's a con.

You need certain factors to be true to create expertise. These factors include predictability, feedback loops rapid enough for the burgeoning expert to build the patterns of cause and effect and the development of established training methods designed to take advantage of these feedback loops. These factors are why a golf professional can materially improve by hitting 20 balls from the same spot whilst an amateur can play round after round without ever improving.

I don't see in economics the factors necessary for the creation of expertise. Results are chaotic, in that they are fine tuned to the precise circumstances of the time, and complex, in that they depend on huge numbers of rapidly changing variables. This makes predictability a difficult problem. Feedback loops, where they exist at all, are of the order of decades -- this is how long it takes to look back and gain some insight into what happened. The models that try to make sense of these things are not based on analysing predictions and adjusting them. Furthermore, those models will ignore whole classes of explanatory factors in an attempt to make the maths tractable.

The consequence is that we end up with people with lots of learning and lots of experience but very little actual expertise. Their predictions are no more accurate than those with little experience.

 

[danny la rouge]

Not wanting to get bogged down in any mire, but it's worth restating that "my-enemy's-enemy-is-my-friend" is a fallacy. Neither the Tory Brexiteers nor the institutions of the EU are the champions of the workers. Being critical of one does not imply support for the other.

And if people are seriously arguing that the BofE is a friend to the worker, then there's no hope for critical thinking on these boards at all.

 

[Winot]

But another union chief, the RMT's Mick Cash, said the EU had pursued a "race to the bottom" on workers' rights and could never be reformed.

Sure. But the argument was that it is only right wing neoliberal organisations that believe that Brexit will be damaging and that's clearly not true.

 

[DotCommunist]

heh, reminded of this snippet from banks:
'The market is a good example of evolution in action; the try-everything-and-see-what-works approach. This might provide a perfectly morally satisfactory resource-management system so long as there was absolutely no question of any sentient creature ever being treated purely as one of those resources. The market, for all its (profoundly inelegant) complexities, remains a crude and essentially blind system, and is—without the sort of drastic amendments liable to cripple the economic efficacy which is its greatest claimed asset—intrinsically incapable of distinguishing between simple non-use of matter resulting from processal superfluity and the acute, prolonged and wide-spread suffering of conscious beings.'

anyway...

 

[sealion]

But the argument was that it is only right wing neoliberal organisations that believe that Brexit will be damaging and that's clearly not true.

All speculation and fear mongering until it happens.

 

[Silas Loom]

You need certain factors to be true to create expertise. These factors include predictability, feedback loops rapid enough for the burgeoning expert to build the patterns of cause and effect and the development of established training methods designed to take advantage of these feedback loops. These factors are why a golf professional can materially improve by hitting 20 balls from the same spot whilst an amateur can play round after round without ever improving.

I don't see in economics the factors necessary for the creation of expertise. Results are chaotic, in that they are fine tuned to the precise circumstances of the time, and complex, in that they depend on huge numbers of rapidly changing variables. This makes predictability a difficult problem. Feedback loops, where they exist at all, are of the order of decades -- this is how long it takes to look back and gain some insight into what happened. The models that try to make sense of these things are not based on analysing predictions and adjusting them. Furthermore, those models will ignore whole classes of explanatory factors in an attempt to make the maths tractable.

The consequence is that we end up with people with lots of learning and lots of experience but very little actual expertise. Their predictions are no more accurate than those with little experience.

That last point begs the question rather. Predictions aren't the be all and end all. Expertise has other types of potential value, such as the explanatory.

 

[Winot]

All speculation and fear mongering until it happens.

You're right, there's no problem running off the cliff edge. It only hurts when you hit the ground.

 

[kabbes]

That last point begs the question rather. Predictions aren't the be all and end all. Expertise has other types of potential value, such as the explanatory.

But what value is the supposedly explanatory if you can't provide any evidence for why your explanation is the right one?

 

[DotCommunist]

lot of concern about workers rights from quarters that hitherto had been fairly quiet on that subject. Been the way throughout. I remember the whole 'bonfire of workers rights' stuff in the papers from remainers, people who had been rather quiet when the tories introduced their latest anti-union bill. Toynbee was the kicker for me as I recall her record on supporting actual strikes being patchy at best. Its also tied into this amazing alt history world where the EU gifted us our workers rights.

 

[sealion]

You're right, there's no problem running off the cliff edge. It only hurts when you hit the ground.

Give it a rest

 

[butchersapron]

lot of concern about workers rights from quarters that hitherto had been fairly quiet on that subject. Been the way throughout. I remember the whole 'bonfire of workers rights' stuff in the papers from remainers, people who had been rather quiet when the tories introduced their latest anti-union bill. Toynbee was the kicker for me as I recall her record on supporting actual strikes being patchy at best. Its also tied into this amazing alt history world where the EU gifted us our workers rights.

Have you not been reading that hot bed of workers and tenants rights - the brixton forum then?

 

[butchersapron]

But what value is the supposedly explanatory if you can't provide any evidence for why your explanation is the right one?

Haven't you been listening? They're experts. Isn't that enough?

 

[Silas Loom]

But what value is the supposedly explanatory if you can't provide any evidence for why your explanation is the right one?

It's got value when the degree of fit with a particular model can be explored by someone who has applied that model in a number of different circumstances. You can have an opinion on the degree of rightness, without a comprehensive understanding of everything that might bear on the model.

I agree that economics is more contestable than many other disciplines. It's going too far to call it a superstition or a pseudoscience, though, and as long as it isn't in that category, there's such a thing as expertise.

 

[JimW]

Might as well hire a well-qualified astrologer if you need one.

 

[Smangus]

Haven't you been listening? They're experts. Isn't that enough?

Careful, you're starting to sound like a certain Pob faced tory there....

 

[Santino]

Might as well hire a well-qualified astrologer if you need one.

One who can provide explanatory value for what's already happened to you.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

The Good Friday Agreement has long inspired me as an example of how politics can succeed, and how communities can begin to heal even the most festering of wounds.

People from so many backgrounds, countries and parties came together to make it work.

The first item on the agenda after the referendum result last year should have been the Irish border issue.

There should have been top level summits as soon as possible, but the UK "government" simply could not be bothered, and left it over a year to put out a document this August that was laughable.

Now, with a tight timetable, they and the Brexit headbangers are in panic and lashing out.

This isn't some uni assignment that can be left till the night before.

The disrespect, neglect and disregard shown to the people of the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland is flat-out disgusting.

The failure of the UK "government" to begin to address the issue till it's too late alone displays their utter incompetence and inability to navigate the Brexit process as a whole.

I'm no EU cheerleader, but the scale of this train-crash is jaw-dropping even to an aging cynic like me.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Careful, you're starting to sound like a certain Pob faced tory there....

His anti-intellectual rejection of experts has led me to think of him as Pol Pob, but it may be a bit too obtuse to catch on.

 

[alex_]

As JimW pointed out inflation has been controlled by wage restraint (alongside increase job insecurity and maintaining the correct levels of unemployment).

---------

The last page of nonsense does show why we need a thread on what economics is, why it needs to be rejected.

Here is the governor of the Bank of England explaining what he is doing about inflation.

UK interest rate rise likely as inflation hits 3%

The Bank of England has an objective to manage inflation

Some more stuff about it on their website Monetary Policy Framework | Bank of England

Perhaps if you want to reject it you should learn some more about it ?

Alex

 

[Santino]

Checkmate.

 

[Rimbaud]

The Good Friday Agreement has long inspired me as an example of how politics can succeed, and how communities can begin to heal even the most festering of wounds.

People from so many backgrounds, countries and parties came together to make it work.

The first item on the agenda after the referendum result last year should have been the Irish border issue.

There should have been top level summits as soon as possible, but the UK "government" simply could not be bothered, and left it over a year to put out a document this August that was laughable.

Now, with a tight timetable, they and the Brexit headbangers are in panic and lashing out.

This isn't some uni assignment that can be left till the night before.

The disrespect, neglect and disregard shown to the people of the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland is flat-out disgusting.

The failure of the UK "government" to begin to address the issue till it's too late alone displays their utter incompetence and inability to navigate the Brexit process as a whole.

I'm no EU cheerleader, but the scale of this train-crash is jaw-dropping even to an aging cynic like me.

I reckon there will be an election in 2018, caused by the border issue.

These are the following options:
1-Cancel Brexit and retain the status quo. Not gonna happen.
2-Make Ireland leave the EU customs union. Won't happen.
3-Create a hard border, effectively ending the GFA and causing a return to sectarian violence. Might happen but it is a pretty terrible option.
4-Insist on special status for NI and a sea border. The only sensible option really, BUT can't happen because of the DUP. The only hope to solve it is to try and persuade the DUP to accept it, which won't succeed, but will cause a collapse of the government and early election. Frankly, I suspect some of the Tory leadership would prefer to give up power and cede responsibility to someone else, and there is always the slim possibility that they will win and be done with the DUP, thus being able to establish a special status for NI.

Of these bad or impossible options, number 4 is the least terrible for the Tory party, and at least allows them to live to fight another day.

 

[Winot]

Or 5 kick can down the road by having long transitional period with UK inc. NI having left EU but not SM or CU. Would probably require May’s head though.

 

[flypanam]

The Good Friday Agreement has long inspired me as an example of how politics can succeed, and how communities can begin to heal even the most festering of wounds.

People from so many backgrounds, countries and parties came together to make it work.

The first item on the agenda after the referendum result last year should have been the Irish border issue.

Seriously it’s becoming a bit sickening all this talk about the border. You have FG and FF and the DUP each raising the spectre of a return to conflict over this issue. Once again you have bigots jostling to shore up their electorates over the Border. It’s sickening watching FG who couldn’t give too fucks now wearing the green. Like all of sudden uk labour showing some concern and the tories too. All just a fucking game.

The border if it comes will be ignored. Just like it was in the 50’s through to the dismantling of the watch towers. I grew up on the border. We didn’t give a fuck. We smuggled if we wanted. Crossed when we wanted. Stoped and told lies to the soldiers and the customs.

As for the GFA, the only thing it’s done is entrench the communities, which are more seperate than ever. Think the worst aspects of establishment multiculturalism and it doesn’t even cover it.

eta: was pissed last night apols.

 

[Raheem]

Or 5 kick can down the road by having long transitional period with UK inc. NI having left EU but not SM or CU. Would probably require May’s head though.

6. The UK stays within the CU after Brexit. Think that's what Brussels is looking for.

 

[coley]

I do believe in the class war, in as far as some activists might be pushing it a bit far when people just aren't interested. You tell a working class person that they're in a class war and they'd be better off doing socialism instead of not voting/not participating and they might look at you a bit funny. IMHO, of course.

Now, it's quite possible that they would be better off in a socialist state. It can't be any worse than it is now under successive tory and tory-lite governments.

I think it's maybe how you go about converting people to the cause. How to get them interested. The Brexit referendum got people interested; why was that?

Possibly because they thought, for once their 'vote' could make a difference?

And now we have all the remainers fighting a rearguard action in the hope that if they can keep the stew of uncertainty and fear bubbling long enough that their desire to have a second referendum will be achievable.
These people, Vince Cable et al, clearly don't give a stuff about democracy and the damage they are doing to the UK, but do care they will lose their place at the long established EU feeding trough.
I would have thought that the rights of EU citizens across Europe, the simplification of borders, post EU and other objectives ensuring that people and businesses don't suffer would be a priority?
But, and I'm open to being proven wrong, the stumbling block seems to be how much we are prepared to pay?
Reading between the lines, it seems to be the position that, we can have whatever deal we want, if we are prepared to pay for it?
But do we really need to pay, to access an increasingly fractious, unstable part of the worldwide market?
Personally, I think looking at the hugely disparate needs/objectives/ politically unbalanced levels of the other 27 members, we will be well out of it.

 

[krtek a houby]

Possibly because they thought, for once their 'vote' could make a difference?

And now we have all the remainers fighting a rearguard action in the hope that if they can keep the stew of uncertainty and fear bubbling long enough that their desire to have a second referendum will be achievable.
These people, Vince Cable et al, clearly don't give a stuff about democracy and the damage they are doing to the UK, but do care they will lose their place at the long established EU feeding trough.
I would have thought that the rights of EU citizens across Europe, the simplification of borders, post EU and other objectives ensuring that people and businesses don't suffer would be a priority?
But, and I'm open to being proven wrong, the stumbling block seems to be how much we are prepared to pay?
Reading between the lines, it seems to be the position that, we can have whatever deal we want, if we are prepared to pay for it?
But do we really need to pay, to access an increasingly fractious, unstable part of the worldwide market?
Personally, I think looking at the hugely disparate needs/objectives/ politically unbalanced levels of the other 27 members, we will be well out of it.

Nearly half the country voted (rightly or wrongly) to remain. Didn't Brexiteers use fear as well in their campaign?
Fwiw, the decision has been made and there should be a Brexit regardless of what the 48.1% want.

The most important issue is what happens about the hard border possibility, which seems to be an afterthought with May'sgovt. IMHO.

 

[coley]

It's called wage restraint now. All nice and voluntary. It's big in Europe as well.

Aye, Msr Macron, a great supporter of the EU project is going to do a total Thatcher on the French WC.
Vive le Handbag

 

[coley]

Really?

The boe’s primacy role is monetary stability which means low inflation, they control this with interest rates and recently quantitive easing.

What do you think they do ? ( when they aren’t grinding the common man into the dirt)

Bank of England - Wikipedia

It also has a free museum which is great, you can hold a real gold bar, it’s heavy.

Alex

You mean wor Gordon left us with a real gold bar or is it one of Moist Von Lipwigs? 'Specials'