Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[ska invita]

I dunno, I think conflation implies they've mistaken one for the other - I don't think there's many people invoking the will of the people who're doing so except in an entirely cynical way.

Theresa May is a remainer, but she has decided that The WIll Of The People was to end free movement and reduce immigration. Thats not her factionalism, thats her taking a read on Brexit voters. I dont think thats her being cynical in the matter.

 

[Poi E]

She's an opportunist.

 

[killer b]

Theresa May is a remainer, but she has decided that The WIll Of The People was to end free movement and reduce immigration. Thats not her factionalism, thats her taking a read on Brexit voters. I dont think thats her being cynical in the matter.

Reducing immigration has been an obsession of May's for her entire political career. Don't you remember her time at the home office?

 

[ska invita]

View attachment 158249


Indeed. 649 pages of detail. In fact, too much detail, I think. But whatever you thought of it (and I didn’t agree with all of it), nobody could argue it wasn’t a thought through plan.

Brexit, on the other hand “means Brexit”, but other than that we keep hearing from this and that politician what “the Brexit the people voted for” was. Well, the only thing they voted for was “the United Kingdom should leave the European Union”. That’s it.

I think the two biggest Brexit procedural fuck ups were
1. Cameron calling a referendum and not requiring such a document to form the basis of the Leave vote.
2. May, backed by Labour, triggering A50, so soon after the referendum without first hashing out the internal disagreements as to what form Brexit would take. There was a second opportunity before triggering A50 to make up for #1.
Both 1 & 2 were the prodcut of pure arrogance.

Reducing immigration has been an obsession of May's for her entire political career. Don't you remember her time at the home office?

Yeah i do. Yet she's a remainer. And her desire to reduce immigration is primarily driven by knowing thats what a lot of people, especially Tory voters, want.

 

[killer b]

Yeah i do. Yet she's a remainer. And her desire to reduce immigration is primarily driven by knowing thats what a lot of people, especially Tory voters, want.

Her relentless focus on immigration in her time at the home office is one of the reasons it's what a lot of people want. It's a feedback loop. You know this.

 

[ska invita]

Her relentless focus on immigration in her time at the home office is one of the reasons it's what a lot of people want. It's a feedback loop. You know this.

the key point for me is that its not a cynical excercise on her part and to downplay her red line on brexit meaning no more freedom of movement is to willfully ignore the direction of a key stream of british politics of the last however many years

 

[free spirit]

the key word there is 'temporarily'

That's in the Daily Mail article, but I don't remember it being in what she actually said.

Just a fairly unequivocal 'it would not be in Norway's interests to allow the UK to join and screw it up for us in the way you've screwed the EU up for yourselves' or words to that affect.

 

[killer b]

the key point for me is that its not a cynical excercise on her part and to downplay her red line on brexit meaning no more freedom of movement is to willfully ignore the direction of a key stream of british politics of the last however many years

The direction of travel of actual public opinion has been in the opposite direction though.

 

[killer b]

That's in the Daily Mail article, but I don't remember it being in what she actually said.

Just a fairly unequivocal 'it would not be in Norway's interests to allow the UK to join and screw it up for us in the way you've screwed the EU up for yourselves' or words to that affect.

it's in the article I linked to last night, and she was explicitly talking about temporary membership.

 

[danny la rouge]

The brexit people voted for line is just rhetoric though: none of them actually think they're working to enact the will of the people - they're just invoking the will of the people for their own factional advantage.

Indeed.

 

[8ball]

A lot of people voted for the Brexit which involved the political class being hit with a brick.

 

[Poi E]

But they're still there, huh.

 

[danny la rouge]

A lot of people voted for the Brexit which involved the political class being hit with a brick.

Well, they're certainly stunned.

 

[free spirit]

it's in the article I linked to last night, and she was explicitly talking about temporary membership.

The only article I can see that you linked to last night is partly behind a paywall so I can't read it all, but was written in November and therefore can't reflect something that was said within the last week.
Is this the article you meant?

 

[TruXta]

it's in the article I linked to last night, and she was explicitly talking about temporary membership.

I don't believe for a second that Norway would allow the UK even temp membership without MAJOR concessions and binding promises not to fuck up what is a very delicate piece of political brinkmanship as regards Norwegian relations with the EU. Norwegians are generally against EU membership (around 2:1 last I checked), but simultaneously pro EEA. UK entry into EEA would completely alter the dynamics and not for the better. And as close as the UK and Norway are, the EU is ultimately a much more important partner for Norway and more closely aligned with our strategic interests.

 

[killer b]

The only article I can see that you linked to last night is partly behind a paywall so I can't read it all, but was written in November and therefore can't reflect something that was said within the last week.
Is this the article you meant?

It was. I assumed you had your dates wrong, cause the relevant quote was close to what you said:

But as Erna Solberg, Norway’s prime minister, put it diplomatically when she met Mrs May in Oslo this week, joining with the declared intention of leaving a few years later would be “a little bit difficult” for other members.

Anyway, the only comments I could find from the Norwegian PM about it was opposing temporary membership. Permanent membership seems to be on the table, unless you can find something that actually backs up what you've said?

Not that I can really be arsed arguing about it tbh. I know there's obstacles to EEA membership, domestically as well as diplomatically - but there's obstacles to all of the solutions. I just think that the path of least resistance is some kind of Norway-type deal, so that's what's probably going to happen in the end.

 

[Pickman's model]

UK entry into EEA would completely alter the dynamics and not for the better.

it shouldn't do, being as the uk's been a member of the eea for many years

 

[Pickman's model]

 

[TruXta]

it shouldn't do, being as the uk's been a member of the eea for many years

Fair enough, the EFTA then.

 

[ska invita]

are they taking the piss now or what?

ETA; should stop wasting time with this minute by minute nonsense

 

[Pickman's model]

are they taking the piss now or what?

 

[Teaboy]

Well May fought like hell for Parliament to have no say in Brexit and she's resisted every attempt along the way, even to the point of being held in contempt of Parliament. Why stop now?

 

[Mr Moose]

The brexit people voted for line is just rhetoric though: none of them actually think they're working to enact the will of the people - they're just invoking the will of the people for their own factional advantage.

And quite how 52% over 48% of 70 odd % gives you the ‘will of the people’ even if one single will on a clear question could be discerned is another thing.

 

[Poi E]

The will of the people that could be arsed. Not as catchy, mind.

 

[Mr Moose]

A lot of people voted for the Brexit which involved the political class being hit with a brick.

But most people who voted for Brexit actually voted for it to have more power to act unilaterally and more harshly.

The marginalised made the vital difference in the numbers, but they are outnumbered by solid Tories and nationalists in the 17.2m.

 

[Pickman's model]

But most people who voted for Brexit actually voted for it to have more power to act unilaterally and more harshly.

The marginalised made the vital difference in the numbers, but they are outnumbered by solid Tories and nationalists in the 17.2m.

they wrote this on the ballot forms i suppose.

 

[Mr Moose]

The will of the people that could be arsed. Not as catchy, mind.

The ‘will of the people’ should be banned from use. It’s a phrase only a charlatan would use.

 

[Pickman's model]

The ‘will of the people’ should be banned from use. It’s a phrase only a charlatan would use.

i met will of the people once, a horrible greasy journo just as you'd expect

 

[Mr Moose]

they wrote this on the ballot forms i suppose.

I believe it considering what Tories usually vote for. Metropolitan Tories might have voted for Remain, but what do you think, 17.2m were disenfranchised and marginalised? So if not, what do you suppose they voted for?

 

[Pickman's model]

I believe it considering what Tories usually vote for. Metropolitan Tories might have voted for Remain, but what do you think, 17.2m were disenfranchised and marginalised? So if not, what do you suppose they voted for?

they voted to leave the european union.