Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Mr Moose]

they voted to leave the european union.

The point was raised that many voted to hit the political class with a brick. If we are speculating on reasons, rather than merely stating the obvious, I’d say that doesn’t match the demographics of most who voted Leave. Many of the better off may have wanted to give it the old ‘Up Yours Delors’, but I suspect many also wanted a stronger British State.

But that’s the trouble with the elites. You’d think they’d just band together and agree to fuck us all over in the same way, but they have to compete and co-opt ordinary folks.

 

[Pickman's model]

The point was raised that many voted to hit the political class with a brick. If we are speculating on reasons, rather than merely stating the obvious, I’d say that doesn’t match the demographics of most who voted Leave. Many of the better off may have wanted to give it the old ‘Up Yours Delors’, but I suspect many also wanted a stronger British State.

But that’s the trouble with the elites. You’d think they’d just band together and agree to fuck us all over in the same way, but they have to compete and co-opt ordinary folks.

no, the question of hitting people with bricks wasn't on the ballot paper so the results can not be adduced in that way. i am surprised by your implicit claim that people like boris johnson, michael gove and nigel farage - members of the political class all - campaigned to be hit with bricks.

 

[hammerntongues]

Where is Guy Fawkes when you need him ...........

 

[8ball]

The point was raised that many voted to hit the political class with a brick. If we are speculating on reasons, rather than merely stating the obvious, I’d say that doesn’t match the demographics of most who voted Leave.

It matches a significant set of them very well. People from places where all the industries have closed down, who were perhaps hopeful for something from Labour in the Blair years and then got ignored while everyone marvelled at the success of the City Of London Money Laundering Miracle. Few of them actually believed the EU was the origin of these problems, but they wanted something different, and also resented the way David Cameron and so many other people in power assumed they would just vote in line with how they were told like good little plebs.

 

[Mr Moose]

no, the question of hitting people with bricks wasn't on the ballot paper so the results can not be adduced in that way. i am surprised by your implicit claim that people like boris johnson, michael gove and nigel farage - members of the political class all - campaigned to be hit with bricks.

It was 8ball’s line, but you know full well that during the campaign parasites and nose in the trough merchants of many flavours were encouraging the idea that voting Leave was an act of rebellion against parasites and nose in the trough merchants.

 

[Pickman's model]

It was 8ball’s line, but you know full well that during the campaign parasites and nose in the trough merchants of many flavours were encouraging the idea that voting Leave was an act of rebellion against parasites and nose in the trough merchants.

people said lots of things during the campaign. but i wouldn't take them all as the reasons people actually voted as they did.

 

[chilango]

Will of the People. Bad thing to invoke right now?

 

[Pickman's model]

Will of the People. Bad thing to invoke right now?

 

[butchersapron]

Will of the People. Bad thing to invoke right now?

Reminds me that the original people's vote was the anti Irish home rule 'peoples no' campaign

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The point was raised that many voted to hit the political class with a brick. If we are speculating on reasons, rather than merely stating the obvious, I’d say that doesn’t match the demographics of most who voted Leave. Many of the better off may have wanted to give it the old ‘Up Yours Delors’, but I suspect many also wanted a stronger British State.

But that’s the trouble with the elites. You’d think they’d just band together and agree to fuck us all over in the same way, but they have to compete and co-opt ordinary folks.

That's the problem, isn't it? The more you analyse the vote, the less coherent it appears. Young people (<25) of all classes voted majority remain, old people of all classes majority leave. That's probably the clearest demographic difference. Even the apparent class divide isn't as clear-cut as it first appears - LSE did research showing that, while the wealthier tended towards remain, so did those right at the bottom. The clearest leave sector was that just above the bottom. Makes some sense, I would think - if you're on minimum wage, you're unlikely to see a Polish colleague as a threat to your job, but if you have a trade that is worth a bit more than that, you may see a Pole with the same skills as you as a threat, especially as you see your wage dropping over time. And that is, imo, very revealing of one of the main drivers behind the leave majority. As others have said, that narrative was fuelled by the actions and words of many politicians, including May, ever since the credit crunch of 2008, right back to Gordon Brown's specious 'British jobs for British people' bullshit. And as has been pointed out by a few people on these threads, it bears a nasty resemblance to the narratives constructed in the 60s and 70s re immigrants from the Commonwealth.

 

[not-bono-ever]

17 million odd people voted for possibly 17 million odd reasons.

 

[Pickman's model]

17 million odd people voted for possibly 17 million odd reasons.

just as the people who cast their ballot the other way had their own odd and often frankly peculiar reasons for so doing

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Where is Guy Fawkes when you need him ...........

Yeah, a Catholic fundamentalist terrorist is just what we need right now

 

[DotCommunist]

Yeah, a Catholic fundamentalist terrorist is just what we need right now

something something honest intentions

 

[Sprocket.]

Yeah, a Catholic fundamentalist terrorist is just what we need right now

Dark ages here we come!

 

[Winot]

Brexit, on the other hand “means Brexit”, but other than that we keep hearing from this and that politician what “the Brexit the people voted for” was. Well, the only thing they voted for was “the United Kingdom should leave the European Union”. That’s it.

Which is why complaints about ‘Brexit in name only’ carry little weight.

 

[Winot]

Dark ages here we come!

I think you’ll find the English Civil War came next.

 

[Sprocket.]

I think you’ll find the English Civil War came next.

The Clash discography?

 

[Sprocket.]

I think you’ll find the English Civil War came next.

I meant dragging us back to the past!

 

[butchersapron]

I think you’ll find the English Civil War came next.

I think you'll find it was the bishops war/ scotland vs england...

 

[SpackleFrog]

Yep, there should be no protection from home truths.

But even Boney was quite polite to JRM.

Oh c'mon, you can't claim what they did is different to what Bone did/does.

I don't give a fuck for clarity, for Soubry or JRM or his kids, but lets not pretend it's different.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Yes, COULD be clearer Wilf

It's the word "mitigates" - you're using it wrongly and it's pretty vital to the understanding of your sentence - in fact, it hinges on it, so I provided a couple of alternatives that might be what you meant, they might not. By all means try again with another word, but don't use "mitigates" again, it doesn't work here.

I don't think you're in any position to lecture Wilf on politics or on language.

 

[Teaboy]

17 million odd people voted for possibly 17 million odd reasons.

So come on everyone what odd reason did you vote out for?

Don't think gold stars against a blue background works as a colour scheme?
Don't like the shape of Denmark
Got overcharged for a meal in Strasbourg in 1982

 

[Sprocket.]

So come on everyone what odd reason did you vote out for?

Don't think gold stars against a blue background works as a colour scheme?
Don't like the shape of Denmark
Got overcharged for a meal in Strasbourg in 1982

God told me too!

 

[SpackleFrog]

if you say the situations are comparable then the news report will show that.

Touching faith in the media from our resident liberal fantasist.

 

[SpackleFrog]

There’s no reason to believe that Labour, were they to win, would command any more of a Commons consensus for their Brexit strategy than the Tories. The stalemate in the political classes is an ecumenical matter.

Depends what their Brexit strategy is to be fair but you can guarantee if it's any good Parliament will oppose it.

 

[8ball]

So come on everyone what odd reason did you vote out for?

Don't think gold stars against a blue background works as a colour scheme?
Don't like the shape of Denmark
Got overcharged for a meal in Strasbourg in 1982

I don’t like changing currency when I go on holiday.

 

[SpackleFrog]

So come on everyone what odd reason did you vote out for?

Don't think gold stars against a blue background works as a colour scheme?
Don't like the shape of Denmark
Got overcharged for a meal in Strasbourg in 1982

I wanted justice for the pigs.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Depends what their Brexit strategy is to be fair but you can guarantee if it's any good Parliament will oppose it.

Maybe. I think killerb has a point that some kind of Norway+ could perhaps get through. I heard a tory yesterday stand up to urge people to support May's Deal before listing all the reasons why N+ would be better. It's amazing that nobody likes May's deal, but everyone has a different reason for disliking it.

But if, say, May's deal falls through, May falls, and a caretaker PM decides to go for a GE after obtaining an extension to A50, all of which I think are possible, you could have a situation where both the tories and labour end up campaigning on relatively similar versions of brexit. Were that to happen, a Brino N+-style deal could perhaps get through with cross-party support whoever wins the election. Problem I would see with that would be more for Labour than the Tories. I think a lot in Labour would be pushing hard for a 2nd ref as a policy, with the intention of stopping any kind of brexit. After all, most Labour MPs, members and voters oppose brexit.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Maybe. I think killerb has a point that some kind of Norway+ could perhaps get through. I heard a tory yesterday stand up to urge people to support May's Deal before listing all the reasons why N+ would be better. It's amazing that nobody likes May's deal, but everyone has a different reason for disliking it.

But if, say, May's deal falls through, May falls, and a caretaker PM decides to go for a GE after obtaining an extension to A50, all of which I think are possible, you could have a situation where both the tories and labour end up campaigning on relatively similar versions of brexit. Were that to happen, a Brino N+-style deal could perhaps get through with cross-party support whoever wins the election. Problem I would see with that would be more for Labour than the Tories. I think a lot in Labour would be pushing hard for a 2nd ref as a policy, with the intention of stopping any kind of brexit. After all, most Labour MPs, members and voters oppose brexit.

Is an extension at all likely? I haven't seen a suggestion the EU would allow it.