Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Crispy]

Is an extension at all likely? I haven't seen a suggestion the EU would allow it.

It would only be allowed in the case of a GE, 2nd ref or other such board-changing game move.

 

[8ball]

It would only be allowed in the case of a GE, 2nd ref or other such board-changing game move.

So what would the EU do if there’s nothing like that happening and the Government asks them to hang on for a bit?

 

[andysays]

So what would the EU do if there’s nothing like that happening and the Government asks them to hang on for a bit?

According to what they've previously said, the EU should tell the UK they've had long enough and they either need to accept the existing deal or leave with no deal, but who knows if they'll actually do that...

 

[Crispy]

So what would the EU do if there’s nothing like that happening and the Government asks them to hang on for a bit?

They'd say no

 

[Santino]

Ultimately the EU would prefer the UK to be in rather than out, so I imagine they'll make whatever concessions and rationalisations they need to if they can do that without damaging the overall European project.

 

[skyscraper101]

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So what would the EU do if there’s nothing like that happening and the Government asks them to hang on for a bit?

I can't see that happening, tbh. But if it did, if there had been no change in the negotiating conditions, they'd just say no, knowing full well that the UK has power to revoke A50 right up to 10:59 on the evening of Friday 29 March, and banking on them doing that. If that situation were reached, no brexit would become a virtual inevitability, but I don't think it will be reached.

 

[8ball]

They'd say no

Yeah, I mean what happens when they say no. Not that I think things would get to that point in the first place, even with this shower.

 

[andysays]

The other thing I'm trying to get my head around is the timing of the General Election Corbyn is still saying he's going for.

If/when May loses the vote next Tuesday, even if Labour call and win a VoNC immediately, they still need to wait 14 days to see if the government can win another confidence vote, which takes us up to 29 January before a GE could be called (this is the earliest, and that depends on the VoNC being called immediately May loses).

That leaves just two months before Brexit day, during which time the election must be held, a new government formed and whatever legislation is necessary being passed by the new HoC.

When May called a GE in 2017, there was a period of just over seven weeks between calling the election (18 April) and it being held (8 June), so it seems there's very little time for this General Election tactic of Corbyn's to work, even if he can command a clear majority rather than having to form some sort of coalition.

Thoughts?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The other thing I'm trying to get my head around is the timing of the General Election Corbyn is still saying he's going for.

If/when May loses the vote next Tuesday, even if Labour call and win a VoNC immediately, they still need to wait 14 days to see if the government can win another confidence vote, which takes us up to 29 January before a GE could be called (this is the earliest, and that depends on the VoNC being called immediately May loses).

That leaves just two months before Brexit day, during which time the election must be held, a new government formed and whatever legislation is necessary being passed by the new HoC.

When May called a GE in 2017, there was a period of just over seven weeks between calling the election (18 April) and it being held (8 June), so it seems there's very little time for this General Election tactic of Corbyn's to work, even if he can command a clear majority rather than having to form some sort of coalition.

Thoughts?

May stands down, GE is called, govt goes to the EU to ask for an extension to A50 to allow for the election (with cross-party support), after which a new negotiation will be needed. EU would almost certainly have to agree to that, not to be seen to be blocking a democratic process.

 

[8ball]

I can't see that happening, tbh. But if it did, if there had been no change in the negotiating conditions, they'd just say no, knowing full well that the UK has power to revoke A50 right up to 10:59 on the evening of Friday 29 March, and banking on them doing that. If that situation were reached, no brexit would become a virtual inevitability, but I don't think it will be reached.

Cheers - that’s kind of what I meant.

Though a part of me wonders what would happen in actual reality if A50 then wasn’t revoked...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Cheers - that’s kind of what I meant.

Though a part of me wonders what would happen in actual reality if A50 then wasn’t revoked...

That's the one thing I don't think will happen. We're already seeing moves to block it and by March, there would be strong pressure on any govt to rule it out. No deal brexit is a bluff. Always has been.

 

[andysays]

May stands down, GE is called, govt goes to the EU to ask for an extension to A50 to allow for the election (with cross-party support), after which a new negotiation will be needed. EU would almost certainly have to agree to that, not to be seen to be blocking a democratic process.

We're not talking about May standing down, we're talking about the government losing a vote of no confidence. Once that happens, there is, surely, no government to ask the EU anything until after the election when a new government is formed.

 

[killer b]

Maybe they'd send the queen to request the extension.

 

[danny la rouge]

When May called a GE in 2017, there was a period of just over seven weeks between calling the election (18 April) and it being held (8 June),

In theory, a GE can be a minimum of 3 weeks after a No Confidence vote. Practically it’s 3 Thursdays, though.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

We're not talking about May standing down, we're talking about the government losing a vote of no confidence. Once that happens, there is, surely, no government to ask the EU anything until after the election when a new government is formed.

Ah ok. In that case, I would think some kind of a cross-party delegation could be sought to get the extension. A constitutional fudge of some kind or another. We're into uncharted waters clearly, but by that point the EU itself might be stepping in to offer an extension. Euro elections then become a bit tricky, I guess. There is no non-messy solution to any of this.

 

[Santino]

During elections there is always an increased risk of invasion because there's no one to order the army to fight.

 

[andysays]

In theory, a GE can be a minimum of 3 weeks after a No Confidence vote. Practically it’s 3 Thursdays, though.

I was wondering if there was a minimum of that sort, and pretty sure that someone here would know if there was

 

[andysays]

Ah ok. In that case, I would think some kind of a cross-party delegation could be sought to get the extension. A constitutional fudge of some kind or another. We're into uncharted waters clearly, but by that point the EU itself might be stepping in to offer an extension. Euro elections then become a bit tricky, I guess. There is no non-messy solution to any of this.

This is just fantasy on your part now, isn't it...

 

[8ball]

This is just fantasy on your part now, isn't it...

They were talking about this kind of thing on Newsnight last night.

 

[Fez909]

Thought this would've had an outing here by now:

Tech developer quits UK saying Brexit has ‘killed’ his business

IT manager complains he can't afford to outsource his work to Romania anymore due to Brexit, moves to Switzerland.

 

[Badgers]

During elections there is always an increased risk of invasion because there's no one to order the army to fight.

Could not make things any worse

 

[killer b]

looking at the FTPA, I think May would remain prime minister until either someone else manages to cobble together a government and gets a confidence vote through, or the ensuing general election results are in. So she would ask for the extension.

 

[Raheem]

Just realised Ian Duncan Smith is acutally called Ian Smith and he probably thought his name sounded a bit too common like, so brought out the Duncan to spice it up a bit

Ian Smith was Prime Minister of Rhodesia. I think the Tory right must have something equivalent to Equity rules.

 

[Teaboy]

Thought this would've had an outing here by now:

Tech developer quits UK saying Brexit has ‘killed’ his business

IT manager complains he can't afford to outsource his work to Romania anymore due to Brexit, moves to Switzerland.

Yet the headline on yesterday's City AM proudly proclaimed London topped the EU rankings for tech companies yet again.

 

[danny la rouge]

looking at the FTPA, I think May would remain prime minister until either someone else manages to cobble together a government and gets a confidence vote through, or the ensuing general election results are in. So she would ask for the extension.

Yes, the “outgoing” PM stays PM until a new one is appointed by HerMaj.

 

[Teaboy]

Its interesting that Sterling is sliding again apparently on the back of fears over another general election. The markets are an unreliable indicator but its interesting none the less. Corbyn's speech today did seem like an attempt at an opening salvo and setting the general theme for an election campaign.

 

[cupid_stunt]

looking at the FTPA, I think May would remain prime minister until either someone else manages to cobble together a government and gets a confidence vote through, or the ensuing general election results are in. So she would ask for the extension.

Gordon Brown remained PM for about a week after his GE defeat, until he realised he couldn't form a government, then asked Brenda to invite Disco Dave to have a go.

 

[killer b]

Its interesting that Sterling is sliding again apparently on the back of fears over another general election. The markets are an unreliable indicator but its interesting none the less. Corbyn's speech today did seem like an attempt at an opening salvo and setting the general theme for an election campaign.

There was some chat yesterday about a 'briefing note' circulated to Tory remainers which said the only surefire way of blocking no deal was to vote with Corbyn in a no confidence motion. I guess that is probably the more significant story as far as elections go.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

This is just fantasy on your part now, isn't it...

Speculation rather than fantasy, I'd say. Don't ask people for their thoughts if you're just going to ridicule them, eh? Nasty.