Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[killer b]

Would my brain hurt if I actually had a go at understanding the "backstop" ?
Is it a bit like quantum physics or religion ?

What are you struggling to understand about it?

 

[killer b]

Not exactly what I said...
Hardline unionists are a different breed to the rest of the unionists.
I've a lot of respect for those unionists who are working to build bridges and forge relationships between nationalists and unionists but don't for one minute think that Arlene Foster is one of those. She is hardline...no compromise....hates nationalists and republicans and I'd go so far as to say that she will do anything to keep hardline unionists on side. ...including fucking up NI...for everyone.
She is a disaster. ...And does not represent the people of NI at all because she doesn't recognise half of them.

A third of the NI electorate voted for the DUP though. They are, literally, representing them. You said:

Representing NI? Nooooo...representing nutjobs.

I agree with your assessment of the DUP themselves, fine. But how does making sweeping generalisations like this about the people they represent help to build bridges and forge relationships between nationalists and unionists, like those unionists you have respect for?

 

[moochedit]

Would my brain hurt if I actually had a go at understanding the "backstop" ?
Is it a bit like quantum physics or religion ?

What ! .. you mean you don't know what the back stop is? *pfft!* common EVERYONE knows that!

 

[pocketscience]

A third of the NI electorate voted for the DUP though. They are, literally, representing them. You said:

I agree with your assessment of the DUP themselves, fine. But how does making sweeping generalisations like this about the people they represent help to build bridges and forge relationships between nationalists and unionists, like those unionists you have respect for?

Doesn't voting for hate-filled politicians make one a bit of a nutjob by default?

 

[killer b]

Doesn't voting for hate-filled politicians make one bit of a nutjob by default?

The great question of the age isn't it? I'd say no. And even if it did, you'd want people to change their minds and row back from their nutjobism, so calling them nutjobs is poor strategy.

 

[ManchesterBeth]

Doesn't voting for hate-filled politicians make one a bit of a nutjob by default?

The class enemy hates us either way. who cares if they are hate filled or not. it is inevitable. the borg demands it.

 

[Pickman's model]

Doesn't voting for hate-filled politicians make one a bit of a nutjob by default?

corrected for you

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

What is this apart from sloganeering? you make me want to side with the nationalist remainer twats. the alternatives are not too awful for the tories to stomach, it's only that the tory right played their hand extremely badly this time.

The majority of Tory MPs are remainers. If May was booted out last night it would be Davis or Johnson replacing her. That was too awful for the majority of Tory MPs to stomach.

the tory party doesn't have anything like the social base it had in the 20thC. In 5 years time they are going to become a ghost party. they are shrinking incredibly fast.

Bet you £500 that you are wrong on this.

 

[Baronage-Phase]

A third of the NI electorate voted for the DUP though. They are, literally, representing them. You said:

I agree with your assessment of the DUP themselves, fine. But how does making sweeping generalisations like this about the people they represent help to build bridges and forge relationships between nationalists and unionists, like those unionists you have respect for?

The current leadership of the DUP is representing only hardliners.
It is in no way the same party or even close to the DUP that worked for peace in NI...the party that finally saw that compromise is the only way forward. The current DUP leadership is leading to entrenchment and quite frankly they are the reason the NIA has not sat/worked for months on end. Arlene is a disaster....for everyone. Short sighted foolishness....

 

[Kaka Tim]

Yeah supposedly the Labour plan has been to call a VoNC once the deal fails to pass...I guess maybe these new circumstances of a wounded May might bring that forward? If so now is the time.

But lets presume that is still the plan, to wait till the arrangement gets voted down, I wonder if May planning a referendum post the HoC failing to pass her agreement might mean Labour shelves the VoNC and just sticks with the referendum.

Perhaps a VoNC might drag things on and even give the Tories a second wind? Is she wins its a boost and if she loses does it force a general election or just a Tory election? A Tory election would be a sort of renewal too.

What will the Labour front bench campaign for in this potential referendum? Remain? Lol. If so that gives May some real leverage against Labour as Brexit Betrayers and firms up her position - it brings Labour out of the bushes -all the more reason for her to call it. Is it her decision alone to call it?

If this is true:

then of those options it means a 2nd ref is now looking almost certain. And if May wins it (which with Labour campaigning full remain she might well do) she'd emerge victorious and remain in the job. Corbyn would be left pretty scorched too, if not toasted. Even if Remain/Labour win thats going to lose Labour votes at the next GE.

I've got a bad feeling that whatever people might want to happen about Brexit May might still survive this. And get a deal through. And fuck Corbyn.

I think amongst some Labour supporters theres a tendancy towards gloating and taking comfort in the tory infighting, which kind of maps onto Remain In The Referendum Overconfidence. The Brexit process might yet fuck Labour up.

May is dead dead set against a 2nd ref. I think she would resign before calling it. I think if it happens - or a50 being cancelled - it will be the result of parliament as a whole calling it in the face of no other alterantive other than crashing out.
The tories will split over it - with the ERG mob pushing for no deal crashing out - but they would have maybe 60 votes (which means they can take a "principled stand" without having to actually live with the consequences). Maybe they will form their own party.
To get to such a stage would be an admission that mays entire brexit process has been an abject failure. Conf vote aside - if she did try and stay on, her own cabinet would force her out.
Labour has probably done the right thing in not coming out for remain - it means that the "brexit betrayed" badge goes to the tories.
This is all very "fuck knows whats going to happen" but - I can def see government collapsing - and a general election in April/May - probably with the tories losing votes to whatever electoral form the brexit spectre takes.
Personally i think a 2nd ref is a bad idea - parliament should fess up and say "1rst ref was a huge mistake, we utterly fucked it up, a 2nd ref would make matters worse" - (labour can try and dump most of that on the tories).

 

[killer b]

The current leadership of the DUP is representing only hardliners.
It is in no way the same party or even close to the DUP that worked for peace in NI...the party that finally saw that compromise is the only way forward. The current DUP leadership is leading to entrenchment and quite frankly they are the reason the NIA has not sat/worked for months on end. Arlene is a disaster....for everyone. Short sighted foolishness....

But the current party is the party 36% of the voters of Northern Ireland voted for last year?

 

[ska invita]

May is dead dead set against a 2nd ref.

She's also dead set against suspending A50 and a No Deal though! Those are her 3 options by your reckoning. Something has to give.

 

[ManchesterBeth]

The majority of Tory MPs are remainers. If May was booted out last night it would be Davis or Johnson replacing her. That was too awful for the majority of Tory MPs to stomach.

Why? more likely a vonc in the govt would be triggered before the leadership election could amount to anything. at the best of times it's a long, drawn out 12 week process. a50 would be revoked either way. Anyway you contradict what you just said. noone's arguing that the ERG wing of the party is a najority. I'm just saying that a split would not be against their long term interests, at least let May bollix it up a bit more. In this sense yer proletarian hero JRM is totally on the side of remain.

Bet you £500 that you are wrong on this.

You can do that but betting is unscientific and haraam.

 

[ManchesterBeth]

She's also dead set against suspending A50 and a No Deal though! Those are her 3 options by your reckoning. Something has to give.

A50 will be revoked or a sham govt will topple Corbyn. Outwitted by Sir Vincent Cable of all people. what a time to be alive.

 

[Baronage-Phase]

But the current party is the party 36% of the voters of Northern Ireland voted for last year?

And?

She is not representing the majority of people in NI.
Do you see that?
She isn't even representing the 36% who voted DUP. She is way Too hardline even for many of them.
Previous DUP leaders were prepared to work with others and govern NI as a whole. She is not. She is too partisan

I mean...if Paisley was able to move towards peace and powersharing...and Robinson was able to govern with Sinn Fein.....you've got to ask the question...wtf is wrong with Arlene Foster?

 

[killer b]

And?

She is not representing the majority of people in NI.
Do you see that?
She isn't even representing the 36% who voted DUP. She is way Too hardline even for many of them.
Previous DUP leaders were prepared to work with others and govern NI as a whole. She is not. She is too partisan

I mean...if Paisley was able to move towards peace and powersharing...and Robinson was able to govern with Sinn Fein.....you've got to ask the question...wtf is wrong with Arlene Foster?

Obviously the DUP don't represent the majority of people in NI. They represent - in parliament at least - 36% of adults who voted in the 2017 UK general election. That's in the post you quoted.

I don't really understand what your issue is here - I was just making a point about it being poor politics to talk about the people a politician or party represents as nutjobs. I've no interest in an argument about how debased the DUP themselves actually are - I know they're bastards.

 

[Kaka Tim]

She's also dead set against suspending A50 and a No Deal though! Those are her 3 options by your reckoning. Something has to give.

What gives is May - She will resign. She would have to. Again its all a bit "fuck knows" - she might go and say - "i tried my best - now in this time of national crises its time a for parliament as a whole (i.e. a national government) to take over" (thus sharing the blame). nat gov moves to or 2nd ref or revoke A50 - or negotiate a suspension so they can try and get a "norway" deal.

 

[Baronage-Phase]

Obviously the DUP don't represent the majority of people in NI. They represent - in parliament at least - 36% of adults who voted in the 2017 UK general election. That's in the post you quoted.

I don't really understand what your issue is here - I was just making a point about it being poor politics to talk about the people a politician or party represents as nutjobs. I've no interest in an argument about how debased the DUP themselves actually are - I know they're bastards.

No..the current DUP are not representing all of those who voted for them. They are only representing hardliners. That's my point. Not all supporters are hardline but those who aren't are not listened to...And the hardliners are shouting loudest ...that's my point.

And Arlene Foster and Dodds are inherently anti Catholic and anti nationalist to the extent that the DUP lost support in the last NI elections. With them losing something like 10 seats in the NIA and Sinn Fein only one seat behind them now...but they still refuse to powershare and work with them..
The current DUP and their leadership have really messed up in NI. And they are only about objecting and fighting...and refuse to take responsibility and actually do the fucking job they were initially elected to do.
Even Protestants in NI are sick to the teeth of them at this stage.
... it's horrendous to think how people can fuck up peace so easily with their arrogance.

 

[killer b]

Do we have a different understanding of what the word 'represent' means?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

What gives is May - She will resign. She would have to. Again its all a bit "fuck knows" - she might go and say - "i tried my best - now in this time of national crises its time a for parliament as a whole (i.e. a national government) to take over" (thus sharing the blame). nat gov moves to or 2nd ref or revoke A50 - or negotiate a suspension so they can try and get a "norway" deal.

Yeah, just about the only thing I can confidently predict is that May will resign. She is tied to her deal now. She's tied herself to her deal - it goes down, she goes down. And she knows it, hence putting off the vote in parliament. But equally, it seems clear that she won't resign until she absolutely has to, so it will take a vote in parliament rejecting her deal to get rid of her.

 

[Baronage-Phase]

Do we have a different understanding of what the word 'represent' means?

This is bigger than the people she represents.
Once she took over (or didn't and just took the money without doing her job) she stopped representing those who elected her.
She is supposed to be working in a power sharing executive. She isn't. She is a disaster and probably the worst thing to happen to NI in years. She was anti the GFA in the late 90s. She is not interested in power sharing or working for all of NI. She is only interested in a return to the past.

 

[killer b]

Why do you keep telling me how terrible the DUP are? I know.

The people they represent - 36% of the irish electorate - voted for them either because of or despite their terribleness. They represent these people, politically, in the UK parliament. And I think calling these people 'nutjobs' - as you did in the post I originally replied to - is bad politics. That's the only point I wanted to make.

 

[Pickman's model]

Why do you keep telling me how terrible the DUP are? I know.

The people they represent - 36% of the irish electorate - voted for them either because of or despite their terribleness. They represent these people, politically, in the UK parliament. And I think calling these people 'nutjobs' - as you did in the post I originally replied to - is bad politics. That's the only point I wanted to make.

northern irish electorate. and 23.5% of the northern irish electorate, there was a turnout of 65.4%

 

[killer b]

Argh. I anticipated your pedantry in my previous post, but slipped up this time. I'll try to be more thorough in future.

36% of adults who voted in the 2017 UK general election.

 

[Pickman's model]

Argh. I anticipated your pedantry in my previous post, but slipped up this time. I'll try to be more thorough in future.

tbh the more important point was your omission of 'northern' in front of 'irish'.

 

[Sprocket.]

tbh the more important point was your omission of 'northern' in front of 'irish'.

Norn. Surely?

 

[killer b]

quite right. my deepest apologies.

 

[Pickman's model]

Norn. Surely?

or a variation thereof

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

You know what, I think that the current shambles are so fucking stupid they'd sleepwalk into a no deal situation and be too fucking proud to do an about turn.

This whole sorry mess is a story of British hubris from start to finish.

 

[killer b]

I dunno if the cleverest of minds could unpick this tbf. The numbers inside and outside parliament just don't stack up for any solution, and whichever faction blinks first is taking a massive political hit.