Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Sprocket.]

You know what, I think that the current shambles are so fucking stupid they'd sleepwalk into a no deal situation and be too fucking proud to do an about turn.

This whole sorry mess is a story of British hubris from start to finish.

Yes, a British tradition and one parliament will no doubt be proud of!

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

I dunno if the cleverest of minds could unpick this tbf. The numbers inside and outside parliament just don't stack up for any solution, and whichever faction blinks first is taking a massive political hit.

See, that's the point about hubris. This is not about being "brilliant" or a "genius" or whatever these cunts imagine themselves to be because this wasn't a ever a decision made in thought, rather one of the heart or a machivellien power grab.

It's about having a fucking spine.

Neither the govt, ruling party, nor the opposition seem to have one.

They're got plenty of pride though.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

If the entire parliament collectively found their fucking spines, then we wouldn't have need to worry about a political end game, cuz everyone would be calling bullshit from the same hymn sheet.

That's never gonna happen tho. Hense the sleepwalking into no deal.

 

[teuchter]

If the entire parliament collectively found their fucking spines,

What would they do and how would they solve this problem?

 

[Crispy]

Would my brain hurt if I actually had a go at understanding the "backstop" ?
Is it a bit like quantum physics or religion ?

Currently, goods, people and services cross the NI/RoI border seamlessly.
This open border is one of the key parts of the Good Friday Agreement.
After Brexit Day, the future trade negotiations begin.
The nature of the Irish border will be part of those negotiations.
In case those negotiations break down, a "plan B" must be ready, and legally enforceable, to maintain that open border.
This "backstop" is part of the Withdrawl Agreement, and it effectively keeps NI in the customs unions and subject to many EU laws, indefinitely.
Brexiteers don't like this because it's Not Full Brexit.
The DUP don't like this because it's Not A United Kingdom.
The EU sees it as a fundamental part of the Withdrawl Agreement and will not budge.

Stalemate.

 

[Pickman's model]

What would they do and how would they solve this problem?

maybe reading the whole sentence might help:

If the entire parliament collectively found their fucking spines, then we wouldn't have need to worry about a political end game, cuz everyone would be calling bullshit from the same hymn sheet.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

What would they do and how would they solve this problem?

The problem of spinelessness?

I'm afraid it's a terrible prognosis. Incurable.

 

[ManchesterBeth]

What would they do and how would they solve this problem?

There is no problem to solve. business as usual.

 

[Wilf]

Been reports of former brexit-ultras softening and moving towards may after the vote yesterday, inc. the charming Nigel Evans. Won't bother linking, it's just the usual feverish reporting. Same time, there is a likely direction of travel there: May strengthens her position in the party (just); former soft opponents of her deal persuade themselves that the whole show is moving towards Deal; May gets some warm words on the backstop (but not much more) from the euro bods; drags on till January and everybody feels the choice really becomes deal or no deal >>>> squeaks through.

That's all a scenario, a wheel falls off even if a dozen erg-ultras remain opposed. Suspect this comes down to whether she's able to get the dup back on board after her frantic non-negotiations in Europe.

 

[Pickman's model]

Been reports of former brexit-ultras softening and moving towards may after the vote yesterday, inc. the charming Nigel Evans. Won't bother linking, it's just the usual feverish reporting. Same time, there is a likely direction of travel there: May strengthens her position in the party (just); former soft opponents of her deal persuade themselves that the whole show is moving towards Deal; May gets some warm words on the backstop (but not much more) from the euro bods; drags on till January and everybody feels the choice really becomes deal or no deal >>>> squeaks through.

That's all a scenario, a wheel falls off even if a dozen erg-ultras remain opposed. Suspect this comes down to whether she's able to get the dup back on board after her frantic non-negotiations in Europe.

the wheels have already come off

 

[killer b]

See, that's the point about hubris. This is not about being "brilliant" or a "genius" or whatever these cunts imagine themselves to be because this wasn't a ever a decision made in thought, rather one of the heart or a machivellien power grab.

It's about having a fucking spine.

Neither the govt, ruling party, nor the opposition seem to have one.

They're got plenty of pride though.

what do you think they should do?

 

[Wilf]

I'm not sure where a January vote puts those complicated outcome diagrams? Presumably, short of an article 50 suspension, the second referendum idea disappears (no time). And so, given that they won't remain without a referendum, it's looking like original deal + soapy warm words Vs No Deal Brexit. That logic - theoretically - takes us to parliament having little choice other than voting it through (not in itself a guarantee that they will, but a lack of alternatives if they don't). However there's always a chance that one or both sides will completely reinvent process and even timescales. Who knows.

 

[Pickman's model]

You know what, I think that the current shambles are so fucking stupid they'd sleepwalk into a no deal situation and be too fucking proud to do an about turn.

This whole sorry mess is a story of British hubris from start to finish.

hubris first, under cameron, nemesis now, under may

 

[killer b]

this is Ed Miliband's Christmas card btw.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

what do you think they should do?

1) May putting her deal to parliament would be a start.

2) Honestly debate about whether a better deal is possible to get through parliament

Likelyhood is any deal will be rejected in parliament.

3) a - people's vote on deal, no deal or remain
3) b - parliamentary vote on no deal and leave or remain.

 

[Sprocket.]

this is Ed Miliband's Christmas card btw.

Where’s mine Ed, oh I forgot I walked away didn’t I?
In his defence, he’s a lovely bloke.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

Also bare in mind that EU parliament is also has to vote through any deal. I find it highly unlikely any deal would get through both UK. But the whole thing will only be resolved when pride is put aside.

 

[andysays]

If the entire parliament collectively found their fucking spines, then we wouldn't have need to worry about a political end game, cuz everyone would be calling bullshit from the same hymn sheet.

That's never gonna happen tho. Hense the sleepwalking into no deal.

Tempting though it is to explain the current position as being the result of all the MPs just being spineless, it's really not as simple as that.

The issue is more that they, collectively, cannot currently find a majority for ANY positive course of action around leaving the EU, and it's difficult to see how that might change.

(Which isn't to disagree with the general point that they are all a bunch of spineless twats, of course)

 

[teuchter]

Currently, goods, people and services cross the NI/RoI border seamlessly.
This open border is one of the key parts of the Good Friday Agreement.
After Brexit Day, the future trade negotiations begin.
The nature of the Irish border will be part of those negotiations.
In case those negotiations break down, a "plan B" must be ready, and legally enforceable, to maintain that open border.
This "backstop" is part of the Withdrawl Agreement, and it effectively keeps NI in the customs unions and subject to many EU laws, indefinitely.
Brexiteers don't like this because it's Not Full Brexit.
The DUP don't like this because it's Not A United Kingdom.
The EU sees it as a fundamental part of the Withdrawl Agreement and will not budge.

Stalemate.

What I'm a bit unclear about is what it means for the rest of the UK: if there's not to be a customs 'border' in the Irish sea then does it mean the whole UK is in the customs union indefinitely? Or is the idea just to quietly drop the commitment to no borders in the Irish Sea?

 

[Crispy]

does it mean the whole UK is in the customs union indefinitely? Or is the idea just to quietly drop the commitment to no borders in the Irish Sea?

Those are the options that currently present themselves.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

What I'm a bit unclear about is what it means for the rest of the UK: if there's not to be a customs 'border' in the Irish sea then does it mean the whole UK is in the customs union indefinitely? Or is the idea just to quietly drop the commitment to no borders in the Irish Sea?

This is what exercises the DUP so much. Evidently didn't think of that when they jumped in to support brexit. wtf did they think would happen? The idea of being on the same side as Sinn Fein in anything was clearly too much to bear.

 

[killer b]

1) May putting her deal to parliament would be a start.

2) Honestly debate about whether a better deal is possible to get through parliament

Likelyhood is any deal will be rejected in parliament.

3) a - people's vote on deal, no deal or remain
4) b - parliamentary vote on no deal and leave or remain.

Well... you're right the current deal isn't going to pass parliament. nor is any other iteration of deal or no deal, so your option 4 is out too.

So some chat in parliament and a second referendum should clear everything up. OK.

 

[ska invita]

Well... you're right the current deal isn't going to pass parliament. nor is any other iteration of deal or no deal, so your option 4 is out too.

So some chat in parliament and a second referendum should clear everything up. OK.

If Parliament had to vote for an option, on same terms as the public, ie whatever gets most votes happens, then one of those options would pass!

 

[killer b]

If Parliament had to vote for an option, on same terms as the public, ie whatever gets most votes happens, then one of those options would pass!

The problem here - as I think Crispy raised the other day - is that parliamentary bills don't work like that. A bill either passes or doesn't. And no bill for any likely form of brexit will currently pass.

 

[killer b]

Solutions which appear simple usually aren't that simple. or solutions.

 

[ska invita]

The problem here - as I think Crispy raised the other day - is that parliamentary bills don't work like that. A bill either passes or doesn't. And no bill for any likely form of brexit will currently pass.

oh yeah i know, but IF they did....its how FabricBaby phrased it

 

[SpackleFrog]

So here''s my take on where we are:

-The ERG and the No Deal Brexit Tory crew are fucked. They've played their hand, weakened May but not killed her, they're not getting the Brexit they want and they're not leading the Tory Party. They never were that powerful really.

-May is now suspended in mid air. She can't do anything except press for her deal, which will lose. She's been utterly nullified and will be shunted between Britain and the EU for as long as it takes.

-She could make it a VoC in her and say she'll resign if it doesn't pass, but even if she does it probably fails. When it fails that's her done.

-Corbyn is under pressure to call a VoNC in May from all the ultra Remain crowd - SNP, Lib Dems, Blairites etc. He calls it when her deal gets voted down, it brings down May.

-When that happens (Probably around February) any one of the fuckers who can organise a majority behind them - any of them! - can form a govt. No need for an election of course - the line will be that isn't what people want or need right now. With just a month left this govt comes together across parties in the national interest to revoke A50 and cancel Brexit.

There's not a majority for Brexit but there is for shafting May and Rees-Mogg and cancelling the whole thing, and I reckon whether by accident or design in the last week or so the MP's have managed to secure a route to cancelling Brexit in the national interest. And because it's late and I'm feeling speculative, I reckon you could get a majority in Parliament that would be willing to do all that *and* shaft Corbyn in the process.

Late night thoughts (can't sleep) so please excuse, come at me and tell me where I'm wrong.

Following on from last nights late night ramblings Nicky Morgan has had some interesting things to say of late:

https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/bre...nt-of-national-unity-and-whos-calling-for-it/

 

[SpackleFrog]

If the entire parliament collectively found their fucking spines, then we wouldn't have need to worry about a political end game, cuz everyone would be calling bullshit from the same hymn sheet.

That's never gonna happen tho. Hense the sleepwalking into no deal.

Ironically, I think that's preciely what will happen, although why you think that would be something to celebrate I don't know.

 

[andysays]

oh yeah i know, but IF they did....its how FabricBaby phrased it

Maybe someone should start a 'fantasy Brexit scenarios' thread so we can attempt to remain focused on reality on this one

 

[SpackleFrog]

I'm not sure where a January vote puts those complicated outcome diagrams? Presumably, short of an article 50 suspension, the second referendum idea disappears (no time). And so, given that they won't remain without a referendum, it's looking like original deal + soapy warm words Vs No Deal Brexit. That logic - theoretically - takes us to parliament having little choice other than voting it through (not in itself a guarantee that they will, but a lack of alternatives if they don't). However there's always a chance that one or both sides will completely reinvent process and even timescales. Who knows.

You misunderstand the ambition of the ruling class comrade! They want to cancel Brexit not just minimise it.