Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Wilf]

I dont think May is as wounded from the confidence vote today as other PMs would be in the past, the reason being that she isn't really a PM at the moment, she's the minsiter for Brexit, with PM powers. Her sole function is to try and make Brexit happen in some shape or form, and she'll die trying. As soon as her ability to enact Brexit is dead so is she. On that level she's already been walking dead for a while now.

Yes, this. She's been a dead thing since 2017 animated by nothing more than a desire to get Brexit through after the election fuck up. She's at once deeply pathetic but also resilient and quite able. But as far as I can see it's not an ability made from any kind of tactical nous, just buggering on and letting the twirly buffoons who oppose her miss those moments where they had a chance to do her (which of course they should have done within 48 hours of losing the majority). With their ill timed vonc, they've probably upped the chances of her dragging some kind of shitty deal over the line by about 10%. And there's not much chance that the cobra Corbyn is going to inflict any damage any point soon.

 

[Kaka Tim]

agree that may is actually stronger now - she no longer has the leadership challenge hanging over her.
I think she has a very good chance of going on as prime minister for perhaps as long as 6 weeks - when her deal gets flushed down the shitter by parliament and she is left with a choice between no deal exit, 2nd ref or revoking A50.

 

[SpackleFrog]

So here''s my take on where we are:

-The ERG and the No Deal Brexit Tory crew are fucked. They've played their hand, weakened May but not killed her, they're not getting the Brexit they want and they're not leading the Tory Party. They never were that powerful really.

-May is now suspended in mid air. She can't do anything except press for her deal, which will lose. She's been utterly nullified and will be shunted between Britain and the EU for as long as it takes.

-She could make it a VoC in her and say she'll resign if it doesn't pass, but even if she does it probably fails. When it fails that's her done.

-Corbyn is under pressure to call a VoNC in May from all the ultra Remain crowd - SNP, Lib Dems, Blairites etc. He calls it when her deal gets voted down, it brings down May.

-When that happens (Probably around February) any one of the fuckers who can organise a majority behind them - any of them! - can form a govt. No need for an election of course - the line will be that isn't what people want or need right now. With just a month left this govt comes together across parties in the national interest to revoke A50 and cancel Brexit.

There's not a majority for Brexit but there is for shafting May and Rees-Mogg and cancelling the whole thing, and I reckon whether by accident or design in the last week or so the MP's have managed to secure a route to cancelling Brexit in the national interest. And because it's late and I'm feeling speculative, I reckon you could get a majority in Parliament that would be willing to do all that *and* shaft Corbyn in the process.

Late night thoughts (can't sleep) so please excuse, come at me and tell me where I'm wrong.

 

[SpineyNorman]

grime historian

Drink actually came out of my nose when I read that.

 

[ska invita]

-Corbyn is under pressure to call a VoNC in May from all the ultra Remain crowd - SNP, Lib Dems, Blairites etc. He calls it when her deal gets voted down, it brings down May.

Yeah supposedly the Labour plan has been to call a VoNC once the deal fails to pass...I guess maybe these new circumstances of a wounded May might bring that forward? If so now is the time.

But lets presume that is still the plan, to wait till the arrangement gets voted down, I wonder if May planning a referendum post the HoC failing to pass her agreement might mean Labour shelves the VoNC and just sticks with the referendum.

Perhaps a VoNC might drag things on and even give the Tories a second wind? Is she wins its a boost and if she loses does it force a general election or just a Tory election? A Tory election would be a sort of renewal too.

What will the Labour front bench campaign for in this potential referendum? Remain? Lol. If so that gives May some real leverage against Labour as Brexit Betrayers and firms up her position - it brings Labour out of the bushes -all the more reason for her to call it. Is it her decision alone to call it?

If this is true:

I think she has a very good chance of going on as prime minister for perhaps as long as 6 weeks - when her deal gets flushed down the shitter by parliament and she is left with a choice between no deal exit, 2nd ref or revoking A50.

then of those options it means a 2nd ref is now looking almost certain. And if May wins it (which with Labour campaigning full remain she might well do) she'd emerge victorious and remain in the job. Corbyn would be left pretty scorched too, if not toasted. Even if Remain/Labour win thats going to lose Labour votes at the next GE.

I've got a bad feeling that whatever people might want to happen about Brexit May might still survive this. And get a deal through. And fuck Corbyn.

I think amongst some Labour supporters theres a tendancy towards gloating and taking comfort in the tory infighting, which kind of maps onto Remain In The Referendum Overconfidence. The Brexit process might yet fuck Labour up.

 

[andysays]

Yeah supposedly the Labour plan has been to call a VoNC once the deal fails to pass...I guess maybe these new circumstances of a wounded May might bring that forward? If so now is the time.

But lets presume that is still the plan, to wait till the arrangement gets voted down, I wonder if May planning a referendum post the HoC failing to pass her agreement might mean Labour shelves the VoNC and just sticks with the referendum.

Perhaps a VoNC might drag things on and even give the Tories a second wind? Is she wins its a boost and if she loses does it force a general election or just a Tory election? A Tory election would be a sort of renewal too.

What will the Labour front bench campaign for in this potential referendum? Remain? Lol. If so that gives May some real leverage against Labour as Brexit Betrayers and firms up her position - it brings Labour out of the bushes -all the more reason for her to call it. Is it her decision alone to call it?

If this is true:

then of those options it means a 2nd ref is now looking almost certain. And if May wins it (which with Labour campaigning full remain she might well do) she'd emerge victorious and remain in the job. Corbyn would be left pretty scorched too, if not toasted. Even if Remain/Labour win thats going to lose Labour votes at the next GE.

I've got a bad feeling that whatever people might want to happen about Brexit May might still survive this. And get a deal through. And fuck Corbyn.

I think amongst Labour supporters theres a tendancy towards gloating and taking comfort in the tory infighting, which kind of maps onto Remain In The Referendum Overconfidence. The Brexit process might yet fuck Labour up.

Very few of those 117 Tory MPs who voted against May last night would vote against the govt in a parliamentary VoNC.

This hasn't changed Labour's situation significantly, at least not yet.

 

[Plumdaff]

Labour are calling for a VONC after the deal fails because that's when the DUP have said they'll vote against May. At this point it seems quite likely to me to happen. Let's see what happens this morning though.

 

[ska invita]

Labour are calling for a VONC after the deal fails because that's when the DUP have said they'll vote against May. At this point it seems quite likely to me to happen. Let's see what happens this morning though.

what happens if May loses that vote, anyone know?

 

[cupid_stunt]

I posted this on the May thread yesterday:

I've got this gut feeling the EU will give a little on the backstop, just enough so she can get her deal through, but not sure she'll hang on much longer after brexit actually happening.

I certainly wouldn't.

Knowing the EU has said there would be no renegotiation, my gut feeling was/is there could some sort of 'clarification' over the nature of the backstop, which both Sky & the BBC are reporting to be likely, this morning.

The EU will not renegotiate the deal but may be willing to give greater assurances on the temporary nature of the backstop, the BBC understands.
PM to join EU summit after surviving vote

She's weaker at home, following last night's vote, but weirdly that actually makes her stronger in further talks with the EU.

 

[mauvais]

VONC needs what, 130-ish Tory MPs to vote for it? Have I got that right? Never going to work unless the Tories themselves decide to gamble again on actually winning a GE.

 

[ska invita]

VONC needs what, 130-ish Tory MPs to vote for it? Have I got that right? Never going to work unless the Tories themselves decide to gamble again on actually winning a GE.

Is a lost VoNC a definite GE, or could it just lead to a new Tory leader?

 

[mauvais]

Is a lost VoNC a definite GE, or could it just lead to a new Tory leader?

I'm thinking of it in the context of the Fixed Term Parliament Act. I'm not sure that there's any point in anything less given what happened last night.

 

[redsquirrel]

what happens if May loses that vote, anyone know?

The government would have lost the confidence of the HoC and unless a vote of confidence in a government is passed within 14 days of the VoNC we move to a GE - FTPA2011. So theoretically May could lose a VoNC, resign, the Tories quickly appoint someone as leader and and get a VoC passed making them PM, avoiding a GE.

(There has been some talk that the FTPA does not have to apply, that there are other routes about a VoNC but I think they are somewhat theoretical)

 

[Winot]

Labour are calling for a VONC after the deal fails because that's when the DUP have said they'll vote against May. At this point it seems quite likely to me to happen. Let's see what happens this morning though.

I think the DUP have said that they will vote for ‘no confidence’ if May’s deal goes through, but that if it is defeated they won’t, because their concern is the backstop. If the backstop goes, they are content.

 

[cupid_stunt]

John McDonnell, on Sky just now, making excuses why Labour is not calling for a VoNC today, saying it's not about party political advantages, it's about what's best for the country.

He could just be honest, and say that they haven't got the numbers, nor will they unless the current deal goes through, which is not going to happen, and that's why my gut feeling is the EU will end-up giving some sort of 'clarification' over the nature of the backstop.

But, it's only a gut feeling, anything could still fucking happen.

 

[mauvais]

Oh I'd forgotten about the FTPA two thirds provisions and the VONC provision being different things, so I was wrong. What are the required numbers then?

 

[redsquirrel]

Oh I'd forgotten about the FTPA two thirds provisions and the VONC provision being different things, so I was wrong. What are the required numbers then?

For VoNC? Simply majority of those that vote I believe (so, again theoretically, some Tory MPs could abstain rather than vote for the VoNC)

 

[Plumdaff]

I think the DUP have said that they will vote for ‘no confidence’ if May’s deal goes through, but that if it is defeated they won’t, because their concern is the backstop. If the backstop goes, they are content.

I don't think there's any way that the backstop goes.

 

[killer b]

There doesn't seem to be any way of the backstop going. To the point where something that has seemed unthinkable - the DUP voting to bring down a Tory government with Corbyn in the wings - becomes an actual possibility. A probability even.

 

[Winot]

I don't think there's any way that the backstop goes.

Certainly as far as the EU is concerned. Who knows what delusions Parliament will tell themselves.

 

[mauvais]

Don't forget that the Lib Dems will probably miss the bus or get collectively locked in a toilet or something and thus not fulfil their promises.

 

[Baronage-Phase]

And people wonder why it took so long to "fix" NI?
The DUP
They're the biggest wankers in history. They'll fuck up Brexit for everyone and walk away smirking.
Arlene Foster.....fuck off ya smug witch. Representing NI? Nooooo...representing nutjobs.

 

[killer b]

The DUP are maniacs, but I'm not sure it's wise to dismiss a third of the electorate of Northern Ireland as 'nutjobs'

 

[ManchesterBeth]

it is wise to dismiss a third of the british electorate as nutjobs though. on whatever side and for whatever party.

#woke.

 

[paolo]

Don't forget that the Lib Dems will probably miss the bus or get collectively locked in a toilet or something and thus not fulfil their promises.

Minibus?

There was a time when I could, on a standard driving license, legally drive their entire parliamentary party around in a single vehicle.

 

[kabbes]

The problem with brinkmanship is that it helps no one regarding the border issue if the UK leaves with no deal. If there is no deal, Barnier as well as May should be recognised as also having failed utterly at his job.

 

[gentlegreen]

Would my brain hurt if I actually had a go at understanding the "backstop" ?
Is it a bit like quantum physics or religion ?

 

[Baronage-Phase]

The DUP are maniacs, but I'm not sure it's wise to dismiss a third of the electorate of Northern Ireland as 'nutjobs'

Not exactly what I said...
Hardline unionists are a different breed to the rest of the unionists.
I've a lot of respect for those unionists who are working to build bridges and forge relationships between nationalists and unionists but don't for one minute think that Arlene Foster is one of those. She is hardline...no compromise....hates nationalists and republicans and I'd go so far as to say that she will do anything to keep hardline unionists on side. ...including fucking up NI...for everyone.
She is a disaster. ...And does not represent the people of NI at all because she doesn't recognise half of them.

 

[Sprocket.]

Minibus?

There was a time when I could, on a standard driving license, legally drive their entire parliamentary party around in a single vehicle.

You drive them about and I’ll come and shout Bus Wankers at them!

 

[ManchesterBeth]

I think it is a very real possibility and the only true Brexit.

May has survived the no confidence vote as the alternatives are too awful to stomach for Tory MPs.

She still has to get her deal through at some point, it is a shit deal; Junker and co are saying it is the only deal.

When it does get put to a vote, which it must, it will be rejected, as it should as it does what Mogg says it does, enslaves the UK.

That leaves hard Brexit. Which as the name suggests will be hard. It will be hard on both sides and seeing how volatile many leading E.U. nations are right now that could well bring about the downfall of the whole shitty edifice.

Roll on the future

What is this apart from sloganeering? you make me want to side with the nationalist remainer twats. the alternatives are not too awful for the tories to stomach, it's only that the tory right played their hand extremely badly this time. Otherwise in the long term they have no problem with a split. Why would they? the tory party doesn't have anything like the social base it had in the 20thC. In 5 years time they are going to become a ghost party. they are shrinking incredibly fast.

There will be no no deal. you will have to show me how it is in the interests of capital before you can make that contention, something i am not averse to entertaining. No stake in this inter-party struggle.