Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[CRI]

Conspiracy theorist security liberals now going full on putschist on the basis that everything is a Putinist plot to “destroy Britain”. (I am not saying that various agents of influence and strategies are not in play, but the security liberals’ response reveals their attachment to the establishment and lack of imagination or alternatives) This one is an ex cop with a large following of the more extreme #FBPEers:

"Attachment to the establishment and lack of imagination or alternatives . . ."

Wtf does that even mean? Like, an afternoon of crafting will fix this shit ?

Had a quick look at this guy's Twitter feed. His 7 year old kid is an insulin dependent diabetic. Can see why he's not reassured by Rees Mogg or internet randos saying everything will be fine with a no deal.

Folks I know who are dependent on imported meds to survive are bricking it, too. The people actually involved in getting the drugs to them are saying it will be the opposite of fine if there is no deal. But maybe they just need to be more imaginative about their situ, too. Perhaps think up an alternative to insulin.

 

[rekil]

Tim Montgomerie isn't 'astute', he's a raging bellend. A complete clown-shoed ignoramus

Nonsense. He's full of new ideas. A breath of fresh 21st century tory air.

Spoiler

you're better than this Kaka Tim

 

[gentlegreen]

 

[CRI]

 

[ManchesterBeth]

Where did that come from? Did you just wake up thinking about me?

Which post did i even fucking quote i have no idea at this rate.

Oh yeah.

sorry for catching an earful of my ire, one of my former mates was talking about how leave vote was quite reactionary and socialists should have voted remain in 2016. changed his tune when it came to building the mass 'working class' political party (aka. corbynite labour) in 2017 though. grime historian and all. so was having a kneejerk sectarian dig at your trot org.

Facebook is really bad for my mental health it's like seeing your grandad go senile except its happening to people who i used to consider friends who are in their early 30s at the most.

 

[not-bono-ever]

a brace of pricks on Andrew Neill are claiming that this is effectively all labours fault at the end of the day, time to take a couple more cocodamol and have a doze i think

 

[Wilf]

OK.

Twenty-eight years ago it was illegal for me to have sex with a third person in the room, in private.

Twenty-four years ago, I was considered a sex criminal by the UK state, for having underage consensual sex with my male partner. He, aged 22, was considered a statutory rapist.

Twenty-two years ago, I was told by the Prime Minister that I had no right to assume a family life, and no inalienable right to be gay.

Twenty years ago I was still banned from joining the Armed Forces like my dad had done, and his dad before him.

Eighteen years ago I was banned from having a civil partnership, or adopting children.

Five years ago I was still banned from getting married.

The rights I have came to me during my lifetime, and I believe in the risk they could be taken away in my lifetime too.

I imagine none of this concerns you, and why should it, you reek of privilege.

But don't lecture me on human rights in the UK, when we had to riot and protest and march and organise to prise ours from the fingers of the powers that be.

You seem to forget we were in the EU during those years of explicit homophobia and repression.

 

[SpookyFrank]

You seem to forget we were in the EU during those years of explicit homophobia and repression.

The EU is still happy to include overtly homophobic regimes.

 

[8ball]

The EU is still happy to include overtly homophobic regimes.

How overt?

 

[Wilf]

a brace of pricks on Andrew Neill are claiming that this is effectively all labours fault at the end of the day, time to take a couple more cocodamol and have a doze i think

Ooh, yes, just reminds me I haven't had any for 5 hours. Brexit and no-confidence in one day I think I'll add some pregabalin to the 60mgs of co-codamol. Please excuse any hysterical silliness in my future posts. A phrase you may also be hearing from Theresa later in the day.

 

[gosub]

Germany wasn't gassing anyone in 1948

No, but the pink triangles that made through to the liberation of the concentration camps, had been processed by then, and returned to prison to finish their sentences

 

[Pickman's model]

No, but the pink triangles that made through to the liberation of the concentration camps, had been processed by then, and returned to prison to finish their sentences

that's a bit shit

 

[SpineyNorman]

Yesterday he solved the back stop. Can't I at least hope for climate change today.

You don't even understand what he's saying. It's embarrassing.

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

"Attachment to the establishment and lack of imagination or alternatives . . ."

Wtf does that even mean? Like, an afternoon of crafting will fix this shit ?

Had a quick look at this guy's Twitter feed. His 7 year old kid is an insulin dependent diabetic. Can see why he's not reassured by Rees Mogg or internet randos saying everything will be fine with a no deal.

Folks I know who are dependent on imported meds to survive are bricking it, too. The people actually involved in getting the drugs to them are saying it will be the opposite of fine if there is no deal. But maybe they just need to be more imaginative about their situ, too. Perhaps think up an alternative to insulin.

To be clear, I am not saying No Deal would be fine. It absolutely wouldn’t. But what I am saying is there is almost no chance we are heading for no deal. As others indicate above, we are heading for suspension or abandonment of Article 50 and then either a People’s Vote or the softest Brexit after a delay.
So why the hysteria over No Deal scenarios? Could it be that certain elements would relish a state of emergency? A desperate attempt to reinstate the status quo ante? By any means, (up to and including a coup, by the looks of the quoted tweet) rather than significant change to the existing economic and political framework.....

 

[andysays]

To be clear, I am not saying No Deal would be fine. It absolutely wouldn’t. But what I am saying is there is almost no chance we are heading for no deal. As others indicate above, we are heading for suspension or abandonment of Article 50 and then either a People’s Vote or the softest Brexit after a delay.
So why the hysteria over No Deal scenarios? Could it be that certain elements would relish a state of emergency? A desperate attempt to reinstate the status quo ante? By any means, (up to and including a coup, by the looks of the quoted tweet) rather than significant change to the existing economic and political framework.....

I think No Deal is increasingly unlikely, but apparently it's still seen by some as a significant possibility

Tusk: EU27 will talk Brexit deal and 'no-deal preparations'

The European Council president has written to member states ahead of its last meeting of 2018. Donald Tusk said the two-day event over Thursday and Friday will cover a matter of topics, but "given the seriousness of the situation in the UK", they will start with Brexit. He says Theresa May will present her assessment to the council before the EU27 meet to discuss their conclusions. "As time is running out, we will also discuss the state of preparations for a no-deal scenario," added Mr Tusk.

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

I think No Deal is increasingly unlikely, but apparently it's still seen by some as a significant possibility

Tusk: EU27 will talk Brexit deal and 'no-deal preparations'

Yes, as I say, those waving the bogeyman of no deal are mainly doing it to serve their own agenda and exert influence in one direction or another.

Those actively pursuing it are a tiny number, with almost no chance of achieving their ends - I.e they would not only have to bring down May tonight, but then install a hard Brexiteer as PM as a first step (and beyond that point the required sequence of events would be be even more unlikely.....)

 

[not-bono-ever]

I think No Deal is increasingly unlikely, but apparently it's still seen by some as a significant possibility

Tusk: EU27 will talk Brexit deal and 'no-deal preparations'

no deal risk management: they have been on the case for a long while obviously - this is just propaganda

 

[Poi E]

Where's Gordon Brown when his country needs him?

 

[not-bono-ever]

whatever we think about broon, at least he had a brain

 

[SpookyFrank]

Where's Gordon Brown when his country needs him?

I belive 'in Nice, with his trotters up' is the customary destination for failed primes minister.

 

[William of Walworth]

Yougov have done one of their MRP models on no deal/may's deal/remain. The closeness of those numbers don't bode well for a remain result of any second referendum IMO (The MRP model has been very accurate in recent elections, and I'd say it's right here too).

May’s Brexit deal leads in just two constituencies as it suffers from being everyone’s second choice | YouGov

Just want to pick up on this, beause nobody else has yet. My strong feeling (previously posted ) is that a second referendum of any sort is a very low possibility, but that a second referendum including 'no deal' as one of three options is even less likely.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Just want to pick up on this, beause nobody else has yet. My strong feeling (previously posted ) is that a second referendum of any sort is a very low possibility, but that a second referendum including 'no deal' as one of three options is even less likely.

Yeah no fucking way we're getting Remain or basically Remain no deal will not be an option for the proles

 

[grit]

The optimism shown in the previous posts regarding the absence of a no deal is heartening yet terribly misguided

 

[William of Walworth]

Yeah no fucking way we're getting Remain or basically Remain no deal will not be an option for the proles

I'm a Remainer yet I even agree with you there. The only way there'd be a 2nd referendum (which I donlt think anyway) would be if no deal was off the agenda.

But just because I say that, doesn't mean I think Remain would win! More later.

 

[ska invita]

I dont think May is as wounded from the confidence vote today as other PMs would be in the past, the reason being that she isn't really a PM at the moment, she's the minsiter for Brexit, with PM powers. Her sole function is to try and make Brexit happen in some shape or form, and she'll die trying. As soon as her ability to enact Brexit is dead so is she. On that level she's already been walking dead for a while now.

Logically from there you can presume that MPs from across the parties might want to stop Brexit purely so as to kill her off...which was the case pretty much before the confidence vote....so on that level little has changed.

I can see only one play that would potentially get a version of her deal through, and thats present it to the house, and if/when it fails reason that the Commons cant agree on an outcome and so call a referendum with her deal running off against remain (other options may be available - but this all depends on who gets to set the questions - does the HoC?).

Possibly another factor is that now the Tory No Dealers are out of ammo she could soften up the existing Brexit deal to win over some votes from other parties. I guess that counts as a second play of sorts. Though I doubt she'd water it down too much, nor would it help that much in winning broader support. I cant see her switching to Norway.

ETA: then again if there is a second ref, who would campaing for Mays Deal? What would the likes of Boris, Farage and the gang campaign for?

 

[Humberto]

I don't see how remain can win. And for all the bitterness that this has opened up I think that is for the best. I'm winning no friends but I'll tell you why:

A second ref would be awful. The longer this drags on, with imperfect solutions either way, the more disastrous it will be when we inevitably leave. Years of uncertainty and stagnation is the last thing we need during and after the breakaway. It could be storing up problems when we need a firmer less worried outlook.

I don't see a convincing case that public opinion has changed dramatically and decisively. The problem is, and I know it will irk some, there was a referendum. In other words; if the (hypothetical) next one is an unconvincing remain, will those who made up the majority of voters first time round accept that? I don't think they would. So divisions could get uglier wherever we find them.

I think it would be best all round if we took a few concessions (well British capital more so than 'we') and offered a little more. Instead of haggling and back-biting. A few good faith gestures. Because as it stands the country is past the point of beginning to look silly, self-centred and indecisive. People in this country from across the divide are beginning to get bored and impatient and I would expect that goes for the people in the EU. Maybe this post is a year or two late but I would suggest that is where the country is going to find problems.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I think No Deal is increasingly unlikely, but apparently it's still seen by some as a significant possibility

Tusk: EU27 will talk Brexit deal and 'no-deal preparations'

I think it is a very real possibility and the only true Brexit.

May has survived the no confidence vote as the alternatives are too awful to stomach for Tory MPs.

She still has to get her deal through at some point, it is a shit deal; Junker and co are saying it is the only deal.

When it does get put to a vote, which it must, it will be rejected, as it should as it does what Mogg says it does, enslaves the UK.

That leaves hard Brexit. Which as the name suggests will be hard. It will be hard on both sides and seeing how volatile many leading E.U. nations are right now that could well bring about the downfall of the whole shitty edifice.

Roll on the future

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I dont think May is as wounded from the confidence vote today as other PMs would be in the past, the reason being that she isn't really a PM at the moment, she's the minsiter for Brexit, with PM powers. Her sole function is to try and make Brexit happen in some shape or form, and she'll die trying. As soon as her ability to enact Brexit is dead so is she. On that level she's already been walking dead for a while now.

I think that's a very good way of looking at it.

 

[teuchter]

It will be hard on both sides and seeing how volatile many leading E.U. nations are right now that could well bring about the downfall of the whole shitty edifice.

Roll on the future

Unencumbered by EU rules, Europe's wealthier nations will open their borders to north african immigrants, neoliberalism will be dead, those death camps will all close, Greece will be sorted and everyone will live happily ever after.

 

[pocketscience]

Unencumbered by EU rules, Europe's wealthier nations will open their borders to north african immigrants, neoliberalism will be dead, those death camps will all close, Greece will be sorted and everyone will live happily ever after.

Or we can try that with EU rules? Where do you suggest we sign up?