I'm not suggesting a referendum is likely. I don't think it will be. It is a guide to how flexible the support for each options is, is all - and all the flexibility is among the remainers.
Is Brexit actually going to happen?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
there will not be a cross party government of national unity though. That I'm absolutely certain of.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Why are you so certain?
It would be easier, wouldn't it? Labour can't rescind A50. The Tories can't rescind A50. If either party did the other would win the election.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
No, what is being shown by the data is not flexibility. The remainers are not opting for the deal as a compromise. Both they and the leavers are picking the deal as a second option, allowing it to possibly sneak through the middle in a condorcet vote.
because politics.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
That's not your most detailed answer comrade!
None of the parties have enough MPs who would torpedo their own political careers to form a national government. I'd be surprised if you could even scrape together double figures, let alone enough for a majority.
Ah, ok. that's a fair point.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
I don't think they will see it as torpedoing their own careers.
Remember the euphoria from the liberal media over Macron? Makes no difference to him now of course. The euphoria from the media over a Government in the National Interest, cancelling Brexit - they'll love that. It'll hold together for long enough, and after that they're all disposable, just like May.
FabricLiveBaby!
Live Baby Fabric!
To be fair its not just needs but LIVES.
What with the awful (and very recent) Irish - English history, I'd be doing the same.
philosophical
Well-Known Member
Is it that clear? The UK voted for brexit.
Yes. Well spotted. They voted for Brexit.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I don't think it is. The UK is proposing unilaterally withdrawing from the customs union. The UK and Ireland joined the EU together. That wasn't a coincidence. Were the ROI not entitled to some kind of a say over whether Northern Ireland stays in that union or leaves, after all the grief that has been through to reach the point we're at now? I'd argue that they're way more more involved and more entitled to an opinion over that than Great Britain, yet there it is, these things are being imposed on NI and ROI. Thing is May has as good as conceded this point - yes they are entitled to a say, and through the EU, a final say at that. This should have been made clear on day 1 of the referendum campaigns as a parameter that any UK govt would have to work within.
Baronage-Phase
Well-Known Member
Ireland is entitled to ensure that lives remain peaceful and that people in our country can move freely as they have done under the GFA. We are allowed to have peace. We waited long enough for it. And thats not an emotive point...it's a realistic one.
There is a growing annoyance in the UK press, and even some posters here are showing annoyance at the Irish PM and the Irish people. Unfairly in my view.
David Cameron fucked you over. May fucked you over. Your government lied to the people about Brexit. A vote took place that was based on those lies. Now your PM is suddenly making it all about the backstop? Its called redirecting. It is deliberate. It's designed to take the heat off her and tge Tories and to place it on to Ireland....Don't blame Ireland for this mess.
We were happily going about our business trying to live in a peaceful way in a relatively united country.... at least in terms of peace and freedom of movement and trade.
I'm waiting for this entire mess to be blamed on the Irish.
Wait for it...And when the UK crashes out and things go to pot it will be our fault.
Eta... littlebabyjesus ...Your post above is spot on.
There is a growing annoyance in the UK press, and even some posters here are showing annoyance at the Irish PM and the Irish people. Unfairly in my view.
David Cameron fucked you over. May fucked you over. Your government lied to the people about Brexit. A vote took place that was based on those lies. Now your PM is suddenly making it all about the backstop? Its called redirecting. It is deliberate. It's designed to take the heat off her and tge Tories and to place it on to Ireland....Don't blame Ireland for this mess.
We were happily going about our business trying to live in a peaceful way in a relatively united country.... at least in terms of peace and freedom of movement and trade.
I'm waiting for this entire mess to be blamed on the Irish.
Wait for it...And when the UK crashes out and things go to pot it will be our fault.
Eta... littlebabyjesus ...Your post above is spot on.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Totally this. The Irish are fully entitled to be pissed off about this mess, which is absolutely none of their making, and to state as clearly as they like what they think needs to happen to safeguard their future. And by 'they', in this instance, I mean both the Irish people and their politicians. The GFA is not something that should be fucked with.
Little Englander complaints about the uppity Irish just reveal the ignorance of those complaining.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Fair liberal media probably not a useful phrase. But in the media generally I think they would go nuts for it and praise it enough that it lasted as long as they needed. I'm not saying there wouldn't be a huge backlash, there would, but they will see it as worthwhile collateral damage.
what media have you been reading where you think a crossparty government cancelling brexit will be greeted with euphoria and not calls for insurrection?
Ahhh cmon. The Express and the Sun will print those headlines, sure, but who else? The Daily Heil won't since its recent sharp political turn.
There would *be* calls for insurrection but they're increasingly becoming part of daily life in the EU anyway.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Hang on! May isn't making it about the backstop. May has been desperately trying to avoid talking about the backstop for months.
The EU has made it all about the backstop, very deliberately and skillfully. Instead of saying "You can't leave" the EU has made it all about the Irish border. And Leo Varadkar has been an enthusiastic partner in that - no doubt there will be some benefits for the Irish govt for their loyalty to the EU project.
I take the point about people "blaming" Ireland - nobody should be doing that obviously. But we all need to be clear as well that Varadkar is making political statements here, for political reasons, and they are not motivated by any genuine fear of a hard border in Ireland.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I don't give a shit about safeguarding the future of politicians and it's really rather disappointing that you do
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Can you suggest a different solution here? How do you keep the border open without a customs union on both sides of the border? I'm not saying the EU is being all virtuous here - both sides are playing their hands to the full - but the whole point is that neither May nor anybody else has come up with a solution other than a backstop-style guarantee. The bullshit about 'technological solutions' (aka 'magic') that was still being touted even a few weeks ago has disappeared from sensible discussion because it was bullshit. What else could there be?
And if you say 'how about a united Ireland?', I'm not going to disagree except that the UK has committed to a principle by which NI remains in the UK until such a time as it votes to leave. How does the UK govt go back on that commitment? Hard to see how it could even if it wanted to, which I don't think it does.
Baronage-Phase
Well-Known Member
May is sucking up to the DUP and spouting on about the backstop. She was all for no hard border....until the vote that she called off.
It's now going to be all about the backstop whether you like it or not....And that's on her and the DUP
I think you have this the wrong way round. Ireland want the backstop, not the EU, and they have a veto on any trade deal.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Comrade. I would never say "How about a United Ireland?" That would be simplistic and would lack ambition. We need a voluntary Socialist federation of Wales, Scotland, England and Ireland Norn and South - as part of a confederation of European Socialist States!
Seriously though, obviously its impossible for May because of all the red lines she drew, but I think if your starting point is that you want Brexit but you don't want to control the flow of goods, services and labour over borders then it's less of a problem. Tory Brexit obviously means immigration control, but I don't think leaving the EU has to mean that. A starting point could be that you say free movement of labour continues but we won't accept the Posted Workers directive, for example. Although this is all irrelevant now as our Neoliberal Overlords have very nearly worked out how to keep us in the EU.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
TBH this is just about the only thing in all of this that I think May has got right. The UK should not be able to impose a border around NI without the consent of the ROI. Even though she's probably only got that right by accident.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
She's talking about the backstop cos she keeps getting grilled on the backstop. She doesn't want to!
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Quite probably Ireland or the Irish govt do want the backstop but so do the EU and negotiations are with the EU, not Ireland directly. I think it's pretty clear the EU put so much emphasis on the Irish question because they knew May wouldn't find a work around.
Baronage-Phase
Well-Known Member
She is attempting to renegotiate and her focus is the backstop.
Stop making excuses for her. She'd throw everyone under the bus to save her skin.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I wouldn't really disagree with this. I've said from the start that I might well enthusiastically support a brexit being carried out for totally different reasons and aims than the one we have. But we don't live in that world unfortunately.
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