Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[SpackleFrog]

She is attempting to renegotiate and her focus is the backstop.
Stop making excuses for her. She'd throw everyone under the bus to save her skin.

I'm not making excuses for her. I'm not known for defending Tories. What are you on about?

She's not attempting to renegotiate, she's said that's not possible and even if she hadn't we all know it won't be renegotiated. She's trying to sell the backstop to Parliament and she's failed completely.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I wouldn't really disagree with this. I've said from the start that I might well enthusiastically support a brexit being carried out for totally different reasons and aims than the one we have. But we don't live in that world unfortunately.

And we never will live in a better world if everyone thinks like you comrade!

 

[littlebabyjesus]

And we never will live in a better world if everyone thinks like you comrade!

No but this isn't that brexit and never could be. This isn't me saying 'oh that stuff is impossible'. This is me saying it's not possible like this. Brexit done like this, with its emphasis on separation and immigration-scapegoating, just makes everything worse.

 

[SpackleFrog]

No but this isn't that brexit and never could be. This isn't me saying 'oh that stuff is impossible'. This is me saying it's not possible like this. Brexit done like this, with its emphasis on separation and immigration-scapegoating, just makes everything worse.

So do it differently!

 

[killer b]

Quite probably Ireland or the Irish govt do want the backstop but so do the EU and negotiations are with the EU, not Ireland directly. I think it's pretty clear the EU put so much emphasis on the Irish question because they knew May wouldn't find a work around.

It's not a quite probably issue - it's a question that could bring down the government of Ireland. You've got it the wrong way round, totally - the EU and the Government would be just fine (minus a few grumbles) with a border in the Irish sea - it's the Irish government's red lines, and the Tories' unfortunate lash up with the DUP that has fucked this all up. The border in Ireland wasn't really an issue before the general election. Guess why.

 

[Baronage-Phase]

I'm not making excuses for her. I'm not known for defending Tories. What are you on about?

She's not attempting to renegotiate, she's said that's not possible and even if she hadn't we all know it won't be renegotiated. She's trying to sell the backstop to Parliament and she's failed completely.

Why is she over and back to Europe and Ireland with a 2 page document of suggestions?
Time wasting?
Looking like she's doing something?
She is trying to soften the backstop and put a deadline on it. That is to appease the Tories and the DUP.
It's shit. She will propose an end to the backstop in 10 years or so. Kicking the whole mess down the road to a generation of people who will end up trying to deal with this mess.

Brexit is going to happen..one way or the other isn't it? So why fuck up another country for the sake of her career? Mind you... I am assuming she is a normal person. She isn't. She is a calculator....literally.
If she had any moral fibre she would put all of this deal back to the people.

One correction there for killer b ..the Irish Government has not aligned with the DUP and they have only tried to maintain the status quo in Ireland as per the GFA

 

[killer b]

One correction there for killer b ..the Irish Government has not aligned with the DUP and they have only tried to maintain the status quo in Ireland as per the GFA

poor wording rather than a claim they were allied with the DUP

 

[Baronage-Phase]

poor wording rather than a claim they were allied with the DUP

Ok... phew.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

There would be a rather satisfying irony to all this if brexit is eventually scuppered by May's need for the DUP. The DUP's intransigence brings it all tumbling down, like a badly built stack of pallets.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Why is she over and back to Europe and Ireland with a 2 page document of suggestions?
Time wasting?
Looking like she's doing something?

Bingo.

She is trying to soften the backstop and put a deadline on it. That is to appease the Tories and the DUP.
It's shit. She will propose an end to the backstop in 10 years or so. Kicking the whole mess down the road to a generation of people who will end up trying to deal with this mess.

Brexit is going to happen..one way or the other isn't it? So why fuck up another country for the sake of her career? Mind you... I am assuming she is a normal person. She isn't. She is a calculator....literally.
If she had any moral fibre she would put all of this deal back to the people.

I give up with you, you don't know what you're on about.

 

[SpackleFrog]

It's not a quite probably issue - it's a question that could bring down the government of Ireland. You've got it the wrong way round, totally - the EU and the Government would be just fine (minus a few grumbles) with a border in the Irish sea - it's the Irish government's red lines, and the Tories' unfortunate lash up with the DUP that has fucked this all up. The border in Ireland wasn't really an issue before the general election. Guess why.

But the Irish government wouldn't have a problem with a sea border would they?

 

[killer b]

But the Irish government wouldn't have a problem with a sea border would they?

No more than, say, France would. Why would they?

 

[killer b]

Actually probably more than france. But there isn't the same complications or grounds for an objection with a border in the irish sea, and no grounds to exercise a veto.

 

[TopCat]

DUP

 

[Nik]

Now on the topic of there being a border installed between the Republic of Ireland and North-Ireland (supposedly dealt with by what is called 'the backstop'), wouldn't you agree that it's in fact up to the Irish people to decide where they want to belong?

The way I see it, their choice is quite simple, binary if you will:
- either they want to remain in the EU and therefore have no other option than to abide by a border between Ireland and the UK being installed by the EU if that institution decides to put one up in the first place (BTW, there's no law of nature that requires a border to be installed anywhere; it's all mankind's work);
- or they opt to team up with Great Britain and as a result also leave the EU, thus avoiding the need for any border at all.

It all has to do with what you think is more important (aka knowing on which side of your bread you expect there to be the most butter).

The way to solve this conundrum, you ask? How about holding an Irish referendum sometime between today and Mach 29, 2019.........

Let me know what you think.

P.S.: in case the above has already been covered before, simply consider my contribution as not submitted; while I did read some of the posts, I haven't yet come around to reading all 18,000+

 

[DexterTCN]

If the reporting is correct, he's not just saying that (which I have no problem with), he's suggesting that the UK govt should lift the threat of a no-deal Brexit by suspending, or ending, the Article 50 withdrawal process.

In other words, it is the govt of one nation attempting to tell the govt of another how it should conduct its affairs...

Shocking.

 

[DexterTCN]

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Now on the topic of there being a border installed between the Republic of Ireland and North-Ireland (supposedly dealt with by what is called 'the backstop'), wouldn't you agree that it's in fact up to the Irish people to decide where they want to belong?

The way I see it, their choice is quite simple, binary if you will:
- either they want to remain in the EU and therefore have no other option than to abide by a border between Ireland and the UK being installed by the EU if that institution decides to put one up in the first place (BTW, there's no law of nature that requires a border to be installed anywhere; it's all mankind's work);
- or they opt to team up with Great Britain and as a result also leave the EU, thus avoiding the need for any border at all.

It all has to do with what you think is more important (aka knowing on which side of your bread you expect there to be the most butter).

The way to solve this conundrum, you ask? How about holding an Irish referendum sometime between today and Mach 29, 2019.........

Let me know what you think.

P.S.: in case the above has already been covered before, simply consider my contribution as not submitted; while I did read some of the posts, I haven't yet come around to reading all 18,000+

If you wanted this to happen, the citizens of the ROI needed to have a vote in the first referendum. Imperialist arrogance to try to impose one on them now.

Maybe we could starve them into submission if they refuse?

 

[TopCat]

If you wanted this to happen, the citizens of the ROI needed to have a vote in the first referendum. Imperialist arrogance to try to impose one on them now.

Maybe we could starve them into submission if they refuse?

I'm recollecting what the EU did to them over the referendum they had.

 

[DexterTCN]

Another nice thread here

 

[SpookyFrank]

The Andy in andysays ?

 

[Baronage-Phase]

Now on the topic of there being a border installed between the Republic of Ireland and North-Ireland (supposedly dealt with by what is called 'the backstop'), wouldn't you agree that it's in fact up to the Irish people to decide where they want to belong?

The way I see it, their choice is quite simple, binary if you will:
- either they want to remain in the EU and therefore have no other option than to abide by a border between Ireland and the UK being installed by the EU if that institution decides to put one up in the first place (BTW, there's no law of nature that requires a border to be installed anywhere; it's all mankind's work);
- or they opt to team up with Great Britain and as a result also leave the EU, thus avoiding the need for any border at all.

It all has to do with what you think is more important (aka knowing on which side of your bread you expect there to be the most butter).

The way to solve this conundrum, you ask? How about holding an Irish referendum sometime between today and Mach 29, 2019.........

Let me know what you think.

P.S.: in case the above has already been covered before, simply consider my contribution as not submitted; while I did read some of the posts, I haven't yet come around to reading all 18,000+

No
The GFA precedes this and stipulates no border and free movement and trade between all parts of the island of Ireland

 

[TopCat]

..

 

[DexterTCN]

The Andy in andysays ?

Doubtful.

 

[brogdale]

None of the parties have enough MPs who would torpedo their own political careers to form a national government. I'd be surprised if you could even scrape together double figures, let alone enough for a majority.

Fair point, but worth remembering that we have an increasingly desperate PM who has self-torpedoed her own political future and, in doing so, guaranteed herself 12 months of protected status. She's already started talking about 'reaching out' to those in other parties.

 

[andysays]

Some of the people currently commenting should really read the article that killer b posted earlier

Re: Ireland, this article I read this morning in the Irish indie is relevant (and interesting). Dunno how prevelent this view is over there tho.

Dan O'Brien: 'The backstop demand could end up bringing about that which it was designed to prevent' - Independent.ie

Some exerts

Thirteen months ago the Irish and EU side in the Brexit negotiations placed a new demand on the table. What has become known as the "backstop" was designed to ensure that the Border on this island would undergo absolutely no change under any circumstances in the future.

There was always a risk the backstop would bring about a no-deal Brexit. A no-deal outcome would be a disaster for Ireland on multiple levels. It would place Ireland in a position of policing the Republic's side of what will be an external frontier of the EU, or not policing it and ending up having French, Belgium and Dutch customs officials treating Ireland like a non-EU country.

A hard deal would also inflict maximum economic disruption to east-west trade. That includes the imports which keep production lines in Irish factories rolling. It also includes the food on supermarket shelves. Ireland may be a net exporter of food, as the Taoiseach stressed on last Friday's 'The Late Late Show', but the headline figures mask a more vulnerable position. Irish farmers specialise in beef and dairy.

Exports of these products massively exceed imports. But the opposite is true for many important foodstuffs. Among these are cereals, such as flour, and vegetables, including potatoes (last year the value of potato imports was 20 times greater than exports, according to the CSO). Much of the food that is imported either originates in Britain or travels through it from the continent.

Those who came up with the backstop misread British politics and the British, placing a demand on the table that could end up bringing about that which it was designed to prevent.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

But the Irish government wouldn't have a problem with a sea border would they?

Well, they probably would. A lot of their trade with the continental EU transits through UK ports.

Reality Check: The Brexit challenge for Irish trade

 

[Duncan2]

Fair point, but worth remembering that we have an increasingly desperate PM who has self-torpedoed her own political future and, in doing so, guaranteed herself 12 months of protected status. She's already started talking about 'reaching out' to those in other parties.

My own hunch about this is that May will go down with the ship of her deal whenever the "meaningful vote"actually happens.Adopting her deal and "the National Interest"have become one and the same thing for her.Her wooden-ness is astonishing.

 

[Pickman's model]

My own hunch about this is that May will go down with the ship of her deal whenever the "meaningful vote"actually happens.Adopting her deal and "the National Interest"have become one and the same thing for her.Her wooden-ness is astonishing.

She won't go down with the ship, she'll be captain Bob Bob Bob

 

[Nik]

littlebabyjesus
As far as I know the British 'Leave or Remain' referendum was confined to Britons, so by the mere (value whoops, sorry) virtue of that the Irish identity holders were excluded of participating. It's also logical, because the future of the UK was at stake, so no other nationals had a say.

TopCat
All the more reason to drop membership of such an institution as soon as possible.

Lupa
Well, bearing in mind that the UK - according to a certain British MP - won't set up a border, things can stay exactly as they are right now......

all
I fully concur with what is written about the British PM, but a word of warning: let's avoid wishful thinking here and not rule out the EU before Brexit is a done deal. My guess, the EU will not rest until that moment and maybe not even after that. Boy, revenge is an ugly emotion.....