Is Brexit actually going to happen?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
andysays
Love and solidarity
Definite prediction in this area is a mug's game, but I think it's more likely that the May deal will be voted down in parliament and then abandoned.
If we do get to the point of another referendum, the May deal won't be one of the options.
Wrong, IMO.
That the UK will be leaving anyway has already been determined; in other words, it's a done deal. Therefore, even if there is a second referendum, the only question can revolve around HOW the UK leaves. So something along the lines of: May's deal or No deal, wouldn't you agree?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
that ref question is not what im suggesting - its one that's doing the rounds
and also - no matter how many times you say "its a done deal" it does not make it fact. Parliament will almost certainly reject mays deal - and will definitely revoke article 50 before allowing the uk to leave with no deal on march 29th.
if we get to a 2nd ref - remain will definitely be one of the options, its moot weather "no deal" will be. Its parliament who get to decide this - nobody else. And they will never allow the two options they most oppose (no deal and mays deal) as the only options.
philosophical
Well-Known Member
I don't want it to happen but if this can't be resolved, which looks like the case, maybe the only thing left to focus minds is the harshest of the harsh.
The springboard could be the UK refusing to pay what it already owes, which is the 39 billion I am assuming. That could be followed by forced repatriation of UK nationals in the EU and EU nationals in the UK, a militarized border on the island of Ireland, Gibraltar isolated on it's land crossing. No UK flights over EU airspace, no security cooperation at all, imports and exports between the UK and the EU being halted, or halted by checks that turns the UK motorway network into a huge car park. No imports or exports of vital medical supplies between the UK and the EU. Workplaces that depend on EU trade being closed down due to the halting of trade.
Bring it on, leave means leave after all, if the UK can't get it's act together then isolation from all aspects of the EU would be a practical manifestation of leave means leave.
Not project fear, project give the UK population what it apparently voted for.
Harsh reality might cut through theorizing and posturing and focus minds, because so far feck all is working.
The springboard could be the UK refusing to pay what it already owes, which is the 39 billion I am assuming. That could be followed by forced repatriation of UK nationals in the EU and EU nationals in the UK, a militarized border on the island of Ireland, Gibraltar isolated on it's land crossing. No UK flights over EU airspace, no security cooperation at all, imports and exports between the UK and the EU being halted, or halted by checks that turns the UK motorway network into a huge car park. No imports or exports of vital medical supplies between the UK and the EU. Workplaces that depend on EU trade being closed down due to the halting of trade.
Bring it on, leave means leave after all, if the UK can't get it's act together then isolation from all aspects of the EU would be a practical manifestation of leave means leave.
Not project fear, project give the UK population what it apparently voted for.
Harsh reality might cut through theorizing and posturing and focus minds, because so far feck all is working.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
I think Parliament would have to simultaneously repeal the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 that itself repealed the 1972 EC Act.
FabricLiveBaby!
Live Baby Fabric!
Yup.
Just put in for Hungarian citizenship. Apparently its a 6 month wait. That's two months too long so I'm crossing my fingers.
Just put in for Hungarian citizenship. Apparently its a 6 month wait. That's two months too long so I'm crossing my fingers.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
you'll be very disappointed that what happens bears no resemblance to your apocalyptic scenario
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
The right party of capital would never do this; not because they care about the human cost, but because this would threaten rates of accumulation.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i think you're wrong but it won't happen anyway
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
The fact that it won't happen might suggest that I'm not wrong?
Baronage-Phase
Well-Known Member
Even if he UK crashes out they'll still have to pay what they owe if not by agreement then through the courts.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i don't think it will be up to the right party of capital
If a new referendum is a replacement one as if the 2016 one never took place, then the board is completely blank and May's deal doesn't have a basis anymore.
If she floats does that signify she is a witch?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
only if she weighs the same as a duck
Well, then I'd say: leave it (and the EU in the process).
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I thought that only applied before Michaelmas!
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
between michaelmas and candlemas, except on crowleymas
Every fourth year?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
third and seventh
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Quite so; the 200 will require various elements of the left parties of capital to help effect the rescue.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
it's less a rescue and more an undignified scramble
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
"sorry - irish passport holders only!"
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Talk of Labour throwing in the kitchen sink to get a vote before Xmas 
rolleyes:
Labour plans to 'throw kitchen sink' to force May's hand on Brexit
If they were to succeed in these little gambits, which would probably mean getting a few tory abstentions, combined with the EU27 rejecting may's attempt to open things up again... who knows what might happen. Pity the erg lot went for their vonc this week. Not saying they would succeed if it happened next week, but it would have added a further layer to the crisis. As it was the failed vonc, momentarily at least, helped May.
Suppose what I'm thinking is that if labour forced a vote or even a proxy vote on May's deal pre Xmas, it still opens up things like a gen election or 2nd ref (though the route to either is difficult). But if that point is only reached mid January the possibilities are different.
rolleyes:Labour plans to 'throw kitchen sink' to force May's hand on Brexit
If they were to succeed in these little gambits, which would probably mean getting a few tory abstentions, combined with the EU27 rejecting may's attempt to open things up again... who knows what might happen. Pity the erg lot went for their vonc this week. Not saying they would succeed if it happened next week, but it would have added a further layer to the crisis. As it was the failed vonc, momentarily at least, helped May.
Suppose what I'm thinking is that if labour forced a vote or even a proxy vote on May's deal pre Xmas, it still opens up things like a gen election or 2nd ref (though the route to either is difficult). But if that point is only reached mid January the possibilities are different.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
It's manticore you're thinking of, not mandible.
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