Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[TopCat]

littlebabyjesus
As far as I know the British 'Leave or Remain' referendum was confined to Britons, so by the mere value of that the Irish identity holders were excluded of participating. It's also logical, because the future of the UK was at stake, so no other nationals had a say.

TopCat
All the more reason to drop membership of such an institution as soon as possible.

Lupa
Well, bearing in mind that the UK - according to a certain British MP - won't set up a border, things can stay exactly as they are right now......

all
I fully concur with what is written about the British PM, but a word of warning: let's avoid wishful thinking here and not rule out the EU before Brexit is a done deal. My guess, the EU will not rest until that moment and maybe not even after that. Boy, revenge is an ugly emotion.....

Responding in this format leaves me scoobied.

 

[Raheem]

I'm recollecting what the EU did to them over the referendum they had.

Recollecting is to do with drawing on memories of past events. What you're doing is dreaming at the end of a heavy evening of farageohol.

 

[brogdale]

She won't go down with the ship, she'll be captain Bob Bob Bob

Yep, having made the promise to 'go after Brexit'/not lead into the 2022 GE, that leaves her looking for 3 more years ("THREE MORE YEARS!! shouted in true Fatcher youth style).

I can actually imagine her revoking A50 to 'save Brexit' if it bought her some more time in a 'bomb the village to save the village' mentality.

 

[Baronage-Phase]

littlebabyjesus
As far as I know the British 'Leave or Remain' referendum was confined to Britons, so by the mere value of that the Irish identity holders were excluded of participating. It's also logical, because the future of the UK was at stake, so no other nationals had a say.

People in NI voted too. And don't forget that there are plenty people in NI who Irish passport holders too. And the majority vote in NI was to remain in the EU

 

[teuchter]

There would be a rather satisfying irony to all this if brexit is eventually scuppered by May's need for the DUP. The DUP's intransigence brings it all tumbling down, like a badly built stack of pallets.

Or like a stack of pallets which due to a lack of cross border standardisation were inconsistent in dimension or structural integrity, the sort of thing the European Pallet Association endeavours to avoid. I for one hope the work of the UK & Ireland National Committee for EPAL can continue smoothly whatever kind of Brexit comes to pass.

 

[Raheem]

Or like a stack of pallets which due to a lack of cross border standardisation were inconsistent in dimension or structural integrity, the sort of thing the European Pallet Association endeavours to avoid. I for one hope the work of the UK & Ireland National Committee for EPAL can continue smoothly whatever kind of Brexit comes to pass.

Yes, let's hope for a Brexit that is at least palletable.

 

[Nik]

People in NI voted too. And don't forget that there are plenty people in NI who Irish passport holders too. And the majority vote in NI was to remain in the EU

Well, provided that I was informed correctly the majority of the entire voters was in favor of leaving (I believe 17.2 million). Furthermore, as I understand the majority of certain PARTS of the Kingdom wanted to remain. It's totally irrelevant what a PART of the voters opted for; it's the accumulated result that counts.

Here's a thought: let's give the peoples of certain other EU member states a vote too; in fact, let's give the entire EU a say. I for one can guess what would happen. The (vast) majority would probably vote 'Remain'. They're just terrified that a member would "...have the audacity (= wisdom) to leave such a fine institution...". If not to say: shared misery implies shared burden

 

[Baronage-Phase]

Well, provided that I was informed correctly the majority of the entire voters was in favor of leaving (I believe 17.2 million). Furthermore, as I understand the majority of certain PARTS of the Kingdom wanted to remain. It's totally irrelevant what a PART of the voters opted for; it's the accumulated result that counts.

Here's a thought: let's give the peoples of certain other EU member states a vote too; in fact, let's give the entire EU a say. I for one can guess what would happen. The (vast) majority would probably vote 'Remain'. They're just terrified that a member would "...have the audacity (= wisdom) to leave such a fine institution...". If not to say: shared misery implies shared burden

Sorry but the wink doesn't excuse that post

 

[kabbes]

There would be a rather satisfying irony to all this if brexit is eventually scuppered by May's need for the DUP. The DUP's intransigence brings it all tumbling down, like a badly built stack of pallets.

Extra irony points for the fact that she only has to rely on the DUP in the first place because she called a totally unnecessary general election and royally fucked up the campaign.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

Seriously, Nik. I'd be totally happy with the UK leaving..

In fact. I was a remainer who has now changed her mind. I've lived in Poland for nearly 9 years but being a filthy half-breed Anglo-Hungarian am now voluntarily "repatriating" (expatriating ) myself.

(edit)

Ahh... Fukkit.

 

[SpackleFrog]

No more than, say, France would. Why would they?

But not in the same way as a hard land border with the North?

 

[Raheem]

But not in the same way as a hard land border with the North?

What are you saying? Is this a surprise to you?

 

[Nik]

Sorry but the wink doesn't excuse that post

I guess the humor of the EU member states trying to do everything within their power to deliberately make it as difficult as possible for the UK to leave - or set an example if you will - while what they'll really miss is the UK's annual monetary contribution (they'll never admit this though!), is lost on you. Hence my remark about misery and burden; pity you didn't grasp that.

 

[teqniq]

I really don't know what else was likely to happen tbh.

EU leaders reject May's idea to salvage her Brexit deal

 

[Baronage-Phase]

I guess the humor of the EU member states trying to do everything within their power to deliberately make it as difficult as possible for the UK to leave - or set an example if you will - while what they'll really miss is the UK's annual monetary contribution (they'll never admit this though!), is lost on you. Hence my remark about misery and burden; pity you didn't grasp that.

I'd say that's a sad post rather than a funny one.
Firstly, the UK is leaving.
Secondly, the deal is done and there will be no backstop.
Thirdly, the EU isn't the party delaying things....that'd be May and her government.
Finally, you've the wrong end of the stick about money. The UK will be paying out to the EU til 2064.
The UK government has agreed to pay £37.1 billion to the European Union as part of its departure from the bloc, in order to pay off financial commitments it signed up to prior to the British public voting for Brexit.
And...That does not account for future payments Britain may make in exchange for access to the single market or participation in European agencies....which theyve also agreed to. So the UK will be paying out for another generation...And longer...

Britain will be paying the EU until 2064


Not so funny...

 

[Kaka Tim]

Firstly, the UK is leaving.

you sure about that?

 

[Baronage-Phase]

you sure about that?

Lol...I'd really love to say no, but I think the British government is too chicken to go back to the people.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Lol...I'd really love to say no, but I think the British government is too chicken to go back to the people.

when mays deal get rejected and no deal looms they will revoke or suspend a50 - probably for a 2nd ref. they wont have a choice.

 

[killer b]

But not in the same way as a hard land border with the North?

Of course not. I'd imagine if your focus is a united Ireland, a border in the Irish sea might actually be something that rather takes the sting out of the hit they'll take on trade.

 

[Baronage-Phase]

when mays deal get rejected and no deal looms they will revoke or suspend a50 - probably for a 2nd ref. they wont have a choice.

And then?
Will it automatically go to a people's vote? By that stage there could be a bigger majority voting leave just because their so pissed off at the government and the entire mess.

 

[Nik]

I'd say that's a sad post rather than a funny one.
Firstly, the UK is leaving.
Secondly, the deal is done and there will be no backstop.

I'm curious as to know where you found this information.


Thirdly, the EU isn't the party delaying things....that'd be May and her government.
Finally, you've the wrong end of the stick about money. The UK will be paying out to the EU til 2064.
The UK government has agreed to pay £37.1 billion to the European Union as part of its departure from the bloc, in order to pay off financial commitments it signed up to prior to the British public voting for Brexit.
And...That does not account for future payments Britain may make in exchange for access to the single market or participation in European agencies....which theyve also agreed to. So the UK will be paying out for another generation...And longer...

You just proved my point; they want the UK's money; one way or another.
But in all honesty, things are a bit more intricate.
If the UK leaves without a deal (a so-called 'No deal Brexit'), there will be NO money exchanging hands; the UK just leaves and that's it. The UK will be on its own and so will be the EU - each having to fend for themselves.
As far as paying for things the UK signed up for prior to the British people voting to leave, since as I've heard the UK upon entry - mind you as a loyal new member! - paid for things that were decided within the EU BEFORE the UK joined, there's nothing to make the UK do the same again when it's leaving. After all, such would imply the UK having to pay 'twice'. No matter how much they want it; the EU can't have it both ways.

Britain will be paying the EU until 2064


Not so funny...

 

[DexterTCN]

 

[William of Walworth]

And then?
Will it automatically go to a people's vote? By that stage there could be a bigger majority voting leave just because their so pissed off at the government and the entire mess.

That's my fear too, Remainarian though I am.

People would be absolutely correctly pissed off by the Government's faffing around and incompetence, this 'Just get on with it' feeling appears to be widespread?? So my personally thinking that's a wrongheaded question is irrelevant.

And if there's a second ref (which I still doubt), very likely plenty of people would be further pissed off by being "asked again until they give the correct answer" -- the more widespread that impression, if there's a second ref, the more likely people are to think, correctly really, that being asked 'are you sure now?' is patronising ...

Any 'Remain' campaign would have a LOT of work to do to counteract that. Remain-mindeds show no signs of having done any so far, IMO.

 

[Winot]

^absolutely right

 

[Kaka Tim]

yep. a 2nd ref will likely be even more toxic and divisive and leave could easily win again.

fuck knows - but two things are pretty certain - mays deal will fail and parliament will not allow teh uk to crash out on march 29.

so we could have a50 being revolved. a 2nd ref - or a50 being revoked - and then being retriggered so we can start the whole process again! imagine the joy

 

[Pickman's model]

That's my fear too, Remainarian though I am.

People would be absolutely correctly pissed off by the Government's faffing around and incompetence, this 'Just get on with it' feeling appears to be widespread?? So my personally thinking that's a wrongheaded question is irrelevant.

And if there's a second ref (which I still doubt), very likely plenty of people would be further pissed off by being "asked again until they give the correct answer" -- the more widespread that impression, if there's a second ref, the more likely people are to think, correctly really, that being asked 'are you sure now?' is patronising ...

Any 'Remain' campaign would have a LOT of work to do to counteract that. Remain-mindeds show no signs of having done any so far, IMO.

the question should not be 'are you sure now?', it should have been 'before we voted on the principle, now we are voting on the reality. in the 1970s, when we entered the european union, parliament took us in and you were only asked afterwards if you wanted to stay. this time you have been asked twice, before negotiations began, and after the conclusion of negotiations when the shape of our future relationship with europe is clearer. this is democracy. this is taking back control. show us how you'd like to proceed.'

only now it looks like a second ref is something cobbled together in an utter absence of leadership and a mark of desperation. the opportunity to make this a positive moment has been wasted as none of the people in parliament had a clue of how to disentangle themselves from the eu.

 

[ska invita]

yep. a 2nd ref will likely be even more toxic and divisive and leave could easily win again.

Not "Leave", but Mays Deal (or other deal)

 

[ska invita]

Robert Peston has been consistently ahead of the curve on the gossip - (though maybe this is already in the papers now)

Robert Peston
7 hrs ·
Facebook Creator
·
It has been a catastrophic night for the prime minister here in Brussels.

She was rebuffed by EU leaders in her request to them for a few weeks of fresh work by officials to formulate words of what she called “reassurance” such that Tory Brexiter and DUP MPs could be confident that the backstop they hate would only ever be short lived if implemented.

“We do not want the UK to think there can be any form of renegotiation whatsoever” said EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

This means that the PM knows that as and when she puts her Brexit plan to the Commons for a vote, more than 100 of her MPs will vote against it, plus the DUP and the opposition parties. She would lose by a colossal and humiliating margin of more than 200 votes.

Her plan would be dead and the UK’s Brexit or no-Brexit future more uncertain than ever.

All EU leaders provided was a bit of carrot and a big stick to persuade recalcitrant MPs to think again and possibly back May’s and their Brexit plan.

The carrot is that “preparations” on the future relationship with the EU could start a month or two earlier than scheduled, as soon as the UK and EU parliaments ratify the plan - rather than after Brexit day on 29 March 2019.

What EU leaders are trying to suggest with this concession is that they are raring to get on with the talks on the future trade and security relationship, so that there really should be no need for the backstop to take effect for more than a few months (perhaps!).

But Juncker also put the boot in, implying that if talks were to take years and years and years, such that the UK fell into a backstop with seemingly no end - potentially driving that feared wedge between Northern Ireland and Great Britain and preventing the UK negotiating third-country trade deals - it would be the UK’s fault.

How so?

Well Juncker said he listened to the recent debates in our parliament and realised neither the government nor MPs have a clue what kind of future relationship with the EU they want.

And absent a coherent plan from the UK, that future relationship with the EU cannot be settled.

So he begged the government to give him more coherent detail in the next few weeks about the future relationship we seek.

And he warned - waving that stick I told you about - that the EU is advancing its preparations for a no-deal Brexit.

Juncker implied he was surprised May bothered to ask the 27 leaders for help - because their collective view having watched our MPs oppose her and their Brexit plan is that there is nothing further they can do to help her.

Which surely means that May’s Brexit plan, constructed over 21 gruelling months, is not even on life support any longer.

And the PM’s only choice now surely is to seek the will of MPs and the kind of Brexit or even no-Brexit (a referendum) they could coalesce around.

And then having established what THEY want, sue for it with a disgruntled and disillusioned council of EU leaders.

 

[Kaka Tim]

"mays deal" vs "remain" as a referendum question?
will be bitterly resented by many leavers. nobody but Theresa May and her remaining band of gimps will campaign for the deal.
be kind of funny though.

 

[Nik]

Aah, the key word is 'intends'.