Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[agricola]

what is Tom conti doing there ?

and why is one of them apparently wearing the tablecloth?

 

[ViolentPanda]

Soames?

TBF, "The Wardrobe" has a lot of buoyancy.

 

[agricola]

TBF, "The Wardrobe" has a lot of buoyancy.

that is not what she said

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[MickiQ]

They certainly look like a diverse cross-section of society

 

[kebabking]

TBF it is a bit of a mistake to think the ERG are a busted flush - even with 20-30 effectives they have more than enough to bring down this Government if they are willing to do so, and while they are probably wrong to think they could get one of them to replace May they are probably not wrong to think that very few of the Parliamentary party would be happy with May as leader for the next election.

I think the one thing we've learned from the last two years is the May is remarkably effective at muddling through in the face of people making her life difficult.

One of the things that made the ERG powerful was that the rest of the Tory party thought they were powerful, but now we see that they aren't. They can make life difficult one individual bills, but are spectacularly unlikely to vote with Labour on a VONC and to force a GE, they aren't going to provide the next leader, and any of their members or followers who fancy a ministerial career now that the bolt has been shot will now be beginning to move out of their orbit - the big mouths will stay of course, they have nowhere else to go, and the Torygraph will keep them gainfully employed, but for the foot soldiers only a life of backbench anonymity beckons...

This is the ERG's version of Mays GE. Before it they were all powerful because people thought they were all powerful, but the day after the votes just didn't come in they are lame ducks. The difference however is that May seems able to rebuild through provoking respect for her grim determination, whereas the ERG are positively disliked by their 'colleagues'.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Just as a point of information, does anyone know how long the letters are good for? Can the 22 cmttee just hold onto them indefinitely, and top them up? Or do they have to be “activated” by a certain date or they fall invalid?

think i read somewhere at the weekend that if a letter is not recent, then sir twunt will contact the sender and ask something like " i say, old chap, do you still mean it or were you pissed at the time or what?"

eta - if it gets to the required number of letters that is

 

[Gerry1time]

I've just read Nadine Dorries claims 46 letters in. I'm not going to even bother linking... if you can't accept a source as unimpeachable as Nadine Dorries, it's a sad do.

She's a lady who always reaffirms my faith in democracy, by demonstrating that literally anyone can be an MP.

 

[cupid_stunt]

View attachment 153117

Am I the only one that thinks it's odd, that Rees-Mogg looks the youngest there, despite being from the 18th century?

 

[mauvais]

Am I the only one that thinks it's odd, that Rees-Mogg looks the youngest there, despite being from the 18th century?

He's got a painting of David Davis' "I'll resign over this, you know" strategy in his attic.

 

[MickiQ]

Am I the only one that thinks it's odd, that Rees-Mogg looks the youngest there, despite being from the 18th century?

Must have grabbed a ride in the Tardis

 

[agricola]

I think the one thing we've learned from the last two years is the May is remarkably effective at muddling through in the face of people making her life difficult.

One of the things that made the ERG powerful was that the rest of the Tory party thought they were powerful, but now we see that they aren't. They can make life difficult one individual bills, but are spectacularly unlikely to vote with Labour on a VONC and to force a GE, they aren't going to provide the next leader, and any of their members or followers who fancy a ministerial career now that the bolt has been shot will now be beginning to move out of their orbit - the big mouths will stay of course, they have nowhere else to go, and the Torygraph will keep them gainfully employed, but for the foot soldiers only a life of backbench anonymity beckons...

This is the ERG's version of Mays GE. Before it they were all powerful because people thought they were all powerful, but the day after the votes just didn't come in they are lame ducks. The difference however is that May seems able to rebuild through provoking respect for her grim determination, whereas the ERG are positively disliked by their 'colleagues'.

I think the Parliamentary party have always recognized how powerful the Eurosceptic fundamentalists are - indeed that is probably quite a bit of the reason why May tried for the GE in 2017, so she could get enough of a buffer to make their opposition to the deal she was always likely to come up with irrelevant.

Unfortunately for her they had a lot of influence before the election, even more now and it is almost impossible to see how they could be kept on the naughty step when they can spend all their time blocking everything the Government does; we are already seeing what ten DUP MPs can do so 20-30 ERG with nothing much to lose will be even worse. They don't have to bring about or vote on a no confidence motion when they can basically stop everything else simply by abstaining.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Must have grabbed a ride in the Tardis

More likely The Turdis...

 

[ViolentPanda]

All hail the gammonocracy!

Fucking hell, a whole slate of Tories with maximum cum-faces! Bloke third from right is definitely on the vinegars!

 

[ViolentPanda]

that is not what she said

I remember the comment about the wardrobe having a very small key.

 

[Sprocket.]

All hail the gammonocracy!

Isn’t it a meeting of the Northeast Somerset chapter of Opus Dei?

 

[gentlegreen]

Northeast Somerset

Fuck - it's just dawned on me how close I live to that cunt.

 

[Pickman's model]

Isn’t it a meeting of the Northeast Somerset chapter of Opus Dei?

It's a tory boy band

 

[Sprocket.]

Fuck - it's just dawned on me how close I live to that cunt.

It’s about time he was revisited by Dennis the Menace and Gnasher.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I think the Parliamentary party have always recognized how powerful the Eurosceptic fundamentalists are - indeed that is probably quite a bit of the reason why May tried for the GE in 2017, so she could get enough of a buffer to make their opposition to the deal she was always likely to come up with irrelevant.

Unfortunately for her they had a lot of influence before the election, even more now and it is almost impossible to see how they could be kept on the naughty step when they can spend all their time blocking everything the Government does; we are already seeing what ten DUP MPs can do so 20-30 ERG with nothing much to lose will be even worse. They don't have to bring about or vote on a no confidence motion when they can basically stop everything else simply by abstaining.

Feeling this. Additionally, if they have a candidate for leader they actually think the party will stomach, then appearing to launch a coup isn't great - they'll want May to have well and truly collapsed on her own terms first and lost the vote, or had to rely on other parties to get it through.

They may have thought they had the numbers and didn't, it's possible. But they also might have wanted the media discussion to focus on whether May can survive all week, which it has, instead of just whether the deal will pass.

It's all conjecture obviously, but I'm sceptical that they would have gone for this properly without commitment from the requisite 48 and I'm sceptical that around 20 Tory MP's said they would do this and then all bottled it.

 

[Sprocket.]

Is it ironic that Jacob Re Smug won’t be told what to do by Brussels yet does everything he is told to by Rome!

 

[SpackleFrog]

Is it ironic that Jacob Re Smug won’t be told what to do by Brussels yet does everything he is told to by Rome!

 

[mauvais]

Feeling this. Additionally, if they have a candidate for leader they actually think the party will stomach, then appearing to launch a coup isn't great - they'll want May to have well and truly collapsed on her own terms first and lost the vote, or had to rely on other parties to get it through.

They may have thought they had the numbers and didn't, it's possible. But they also might have wanted the media discussion to focus on whether May can survive all week, which it has, instead of just whether the deal will pass.

It's all conjecture obviously, but I'm sceptical that they would have gone for this properly without commitment from the requisite 48 and I'm sceptical that around 20 Tory MP's said they would do this and then all bottled it.

I don't get this perspective at all really.

I could elaborate but the TLDR of it is really, who knew that a faction of right-wing Tory splitter zealots wouldn't be able to either get along cohesively or act in a joined-up Machiavellian fashion.

I thought it was immediately obvious that when push came to shove, ERG - on the sunniest of days, barely critical mass - wouldn't be able to agree on a unified approach. I was going to post as such at the time but, and my standards very demonstrably aren't that high, I thought it was too obvious.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I don't get this perspective at all really.

I could elaborate but the TLDR of it is really, who knew that a faction of right-wing Tory splitter zealots wouldn't be able to either get along cohesively or act in a joined-up Machiavellian fashion.

I thought it was immediately obvious that when push came to shove, ERG - on the sunniest of days, barely critical mass - wouldn't be able to agree on a unified approach. I was going to post as such at the time but, and my standards very demonstrably aren't that high, I thought it was too obvious.

I should probably clarify I don't think the candidate would be from the ERG - they would need someone the whole party would accept that they could back.

I think it's too early to tell if the ERG actually wanted to get 48 letters in by now. If that's what they wanted they've definitely failed. But as is very clear succession is the key question in everyone's minds, and if they wanted to get rid of May they would also want to do it in such a way as to remain influential in govt. Agricola's original point was that they will be a massive thorn in May's side from now on, particularly as they are raising the question of a new leader before the next election.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I don't get this perspective at all really.

I could elaborate but the TLDR of it is really, who knew that a faction of right-wing Tory splitter zealots wouldn't be able to either get along cohesively or act in a joined-up Machiavellian fashion.

I thought it was immediately obvious that when push came to shove, ERG - on the sunniest of days, barely critical mass - wouldn't be able to agree on a unified approach. I was going to post as such at the time but, and my standards very demonstrably aren't that high, I thought it was too obvious.

Also no points for predictions you didn't make known

 

[Sprocket.]

Ye can fook off wi that shite too!

 

[mauvais]

I should probably clarify I don't think the candidate would be from the ERG - they would need someone the whole party would accept that they could back.

I think it's too early to tell if the ERG actually wanted to get 48 letters in by now. If that's what they wanted they've definitely failed. But as is very clear succession is the key question in everyone's minds, and if they wanted to get rid of May they would also want to do it in such a way as to remain influential in govt. Agricola's original point was that they will be a massive thorn in May's side from now on, particularly as they are raising the question of a new leader before the next election.

Basic numeracy or indeed the passage of time are both massive thorns in May's side, but the threshold for that isn't high either.

JRM and the ERG core clearly wanted 48 letters and it immediately became clear that they as a group were roughly 50/50 divided between rebellion and retaining May, as befits all rightists.

Also no points for predictions you didn't make known

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Once-zeitgesty comments rotting on the reply text field vine in an aggressively persistent online forum system. Other stuff, possibly. All those moments will be indefinitely retained, like tears in a really well-defined database.

 

[mx wcfc]

It was fairly clear yesterday that they weren't going to get the 48 letters. A lot of MPs would have gone back to their constituencies over the weekend and tested the water. and I suspect that most of them would have been told to get the fuck on with things rather mess around with politicking. they are never going to get the 48 letters now.

But neither are they going to get this deal through parliament.

It's going to be a no deal Brexit. Which, as May told us some time ago, is better than a bad deal Brexit, and a bad deal Brexit is what is on offer now, imho (and as a remainer).

 

[Kaka Tim]

Ye can fook off wi that shite too!

shite?! tis a rib ticklingly daft anti-sectarian classic!

although - going by the slide show - the irony may have been lost on whoever posted that on you tube. Dubliners version waaayyyy superior.




(sorry - lets get back to the Joy of Brexit)

 

[mx wcfc]

[QUOTE

(sorry - lets get back to the Joy of Brexit)[/QUOTE]

The real (only?) joy of Brexit would be a United Ireland, though I wouldn't wish the DUP on anyone.