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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?

  • Yes - A fully independant Britain making its own way in the world (apart from scotland).

    Votes: 66 18.2%

  • A Semi-Detached Norway type deal

    Votes: 111 30.7%

  • No - 2nd referendum and/or face saving fudge to let us slink back in feeling a bit fucking stupid

    Votes: 185 51.1%
  • Total voters
    362
Kaka Tim said:
i think the hard core ERG lot read the widespread dismay at the mays deal and presumed that that would translate into a rebellion - so then turned around when they were halfway across no mans land to find that nobody had followed them.
twats - they should have waited until may's deal was voted down - all they've done is shown themselves up as the incompetent, obsessive freaks that they are and actually strengthened may's position.
I guess "this deal is utterly shit!" does not mean "lets tell the EU go fuck themselves and charge off the cliff with Rees Mogg leading the way".
Full on no deal brexit is very much a fringe position amongst tory MPs when it comes to the crunch - as opposed to puffed up posturing and playing to the gammon gallery.
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Maybe it was more about maximising the number of Tories who would vote against May in the Commons?

littlebabyjesus said:
Latest noises now seem to be backtracking to say that there will be enough letters after the vote. Well no shit. If the government loses the vote, May's toast. We all know that. May knows that.
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They might be a bit more likely to go for her if it goes through. I mean, if it goes through with a lot of Labour support, they may see that as worse. If it fails they could send May back to the EU and they probably wouldn't mind that. I don't think they think they can lead the party or the govt.

A little bit like when you send union negotiators back after telling them the offer from the employer is wank... :rolleyes:
 
Must admit I've been expecting the '48' to be triggered, doing more than listening to the press recycling those stories. Very hard to tell the numbers but erg lot have certainly been outflanked by May - a process which has involved her doing very little. If the remaining 'cabinet 5' or whatever it is had gone at the same time as raab, the cowardly lions might have been emboldened to stick their letters in. However aside from that pantomime, I've always thought May has a reasonable chance of getting the deal through parliament. Just as the letters haven't gone in we seem to be seeing the softening up process, leavers who end up abstaining on the deal rather than opposing it, May getting it through 2nd time round etc.
 
Wilf said:
Must admit I've been expecting the '48' to be triggered, doing more than listening to the press recycling those stories. Very hard to tell the numbers but erg lot have certainly been outflanked by May - a process which has involved her doing very little. If the remaining 'cabinet 5' or whatever it is had gone at the same time as raab, the cowardly lions might have been emboldened to stick their letters in. However aside from that pantomime, I've always thought May has a reasonable chance of getting the deal through parliament. Just as the letters haven't gone in we seem to be seeing the softening up process, leavers who end up abstaining on the deal rather than opposing it, May getting it through 2nd time round etc.
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This kind of thing:
James Forsyth

✔ @JGForsyth



3 Ministers who have spoken to some of those saying they will vote against the deal have all said the same thing to me today, that a lot of these MPs just want a reason to vote for it. Question is, can the govt find enough fig leaves to whittle down this rebellion to 20 or so?
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IDS and Owen Paterson's Number 10 meeting yesterday showed that a lot of people really do want an excuse not to have to bring the whole house down
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By the way, on 'the letters', I want to see Michael Crick scuttling around after politicians with a microphone. That's proper fucking journalism, scuttling. :mad:

Mind, it can be a dangerous business. Not content with Godfrey Bloom hitting him with a piece of paper...

 
Wilf said:
By the way, on 'the letters', I want to see Michael Crick scuttling around after politicians with a microphone. That's proper fucking journalism, scuttling. :mad:

Mind, it can be a dangerous business. Not content with Godfrey Bloom hitting him with a piece of paper...

Click to expand...

Eyes shut left jab extended into shitly balanced punch - take that MSMMSMSMSMSMMSMSM
 
Wilf said:
I've just read Nadine Dorries claims 46 letters in. I'm not going to even bother linking... if you can't accept a source as unimpeachable as Nadine Dorries, it's a sad do. :(
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Just as a point of information, does anyone know how long the letters are good for? Can the 22 cmttee just hold onto them indefinitely, and top them up? Or do they have to be “activated” by a certain date or they fall invalid?
 
danny la rouge said:
Just as a point of information, does anyone know how long the letters are good for? Can the 22 cmttee just hold onto them indefinitely, and top them up? Or do they have to be “activated” by a certain date or they fall invalid?
Click to expand...

I think they last as long as the leader they are whining about is in post, but get cancelled out if there is a VONC in that leader, or they are withdrawn.

I think the ERG are a busted flush, it's become very clear that they have nothing like the level of support they either thought or claimed, and that May has been strengthened by her enemies making a massive arse of themselves.

Amusingly, having been the rent-a-gob crowd that have made the likes of Kuenessberg et al look like idiots by reporting a rebellion that never got off the ground, I wonder if the meejar will now turn on their former darlings..?
 
Wilf said:
I've just read Nadine Dorries claims 46 letters in. I'm not going to even bother linking... if you can't accept a source as unimpeachable as Nadine Dorries, it's a sad do. :(
Click to expand...

I wouldn't mind a link. I promise not to question it.
 
All hail the gammonocracy!

3429.jpg
 
kebabking said:
I think they last as long as the leader they are whining about is in post, but get cancelled out if there is a VONC in that leader, or they are withdrawn.

I think the ERG are a busted flush, it's become very clear that they have nothing like the level of support they either thought or claimed, and that May has been strengthened by her enemies making a massive arse of themselves.

Amusingly, having been the rent-a-gob crowd that have made the likes of Kuenessberg et al look like idiots by reporting a rebellion that never got off the ground, I wonder if the meejar will now turn on their former darlings..?
Click to expand...

TBF it is a bit of a mistake to think the ERG are a busted flush - even with 20-30 effectives they have more than enough to bring down this Government if they are willing to do so, and while they are probably wrong to think they could get one of them to replace May they are probably not wrong to think that very few of the Parliamentary party would be happy with May as leader for the next election.
 
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