Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[killer b]

The ERG don't have the numbers?

ah yes.

I was actually wondering if there was some Machiavellian plotting going on and it meant they did have the numbers, and he was staying put to give him more currency in the upcoming leadership battle, but actually I was right in the fist place.

You see though? Reading too many political correspondents breathless tweets gives you brainworms.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

She should have gone on at 10:00 am

Should've gone on a 6, with Nige.

 

[Kaka Tim]

seems they have the numbers to force a confidence vote - but not to win it.

I think gove was never going to resign - his "serious consideration" was just virtue signalling to the tory membership for when the leadership balloon goes up.

 

[killer b]

seems they have the numbers to force a confidence vote

it doesn't, yet.

 

[Kaka Tim]

it doesn't, yet.

well lots of commentators saying they do. We'll see later today i guess

 

[Wilf]

Gove staying put should probably tell us something, but I'm not sure what.

That he's no Gove Face Killah?

 

[SpookyFrank]

If there's a no confidence vote and May survives there can't be another one for a year IIRC.

So if I was a backstabbing tory I'd wait until May's deal had been officially shitcanned by the EU27 or by parliament and then try and get rid of her.

 

[killer b]

Lots of commentators are full of shit. It ain't over till the fat Brady sings.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Wouldn't it make more sense for the no confidence letters to go in after May loses any commons vote? If they go in now and she wins (as is likely), they can't get rid for a year unless she walks.

Maybe they don't want to get rid of her, just show they put up a fight.

 

[Wilf]

well lots of commentators saying they do. We'll see later today i guess

My pure guess is that they do have the numbers, actual letters or people willing to write them, but that they are watching events. It's so fucked up and even unprecedented that even tiny shifts in the balance of things are affecting their actions. Another cabinet minister going yesterday might have kicked things off, but in the end May did okay-ish (by her standards) and gove hasn't gone. They wait, they wander round, they haven't got a clue what to do*.

* as the Sweet so memorably put it.

 

[Combustible]

Gove staying put should probably tell us something, but I'm not sure what.

Perhaps that being the reluctant loyalist best positions you for a future leadership contest. It worked for May last time.

 

[bemused]

ah yes.

I was actually wondering if there was some Machiavellian plotting going on and it meant they did have the numbers, and he was staying put to give him more currency in the upcoming leadership battle, but actually I was right in the fist place.

You see though? Reading too many political correspondents breathless tweets gives you brainworms.

Gove isn't dumb if he's staying put he's taken the pulse of his chums.

Seeing Rees-Mogg failing to boot May out would make my week.

 

[spitfire]

This Twitter thread on the events of yesterday, written as events happened is an absolute masterpiece of the form. Click through for the whole thing

That's funny af.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Why do you think scum like Mogg are so for it, will it damage their business?

B

 

[DexterTCN]

 

[killer b]

Gove isn't dumb if he's staying put he's taken the pulse of his chums.

Seeing Rees-Mogg failing to boot May out would make my week.

Consider your week made.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Maybe they don't want to get rid of her, just show they put up a fight.

Accidentally winning something you didn't mean to seems to be on trend at the moment, though.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Well that's nonsense, EU citizens that have been here 5 or more years have the right to UK citizenship.

 

[AnandLeo]

The draft Brexit deal has lost the favour of many conservative MPs including the Brexit minister who delivered it, and majority of MPs are against it. The last minute disaster avoiding strategy for The Theresa May’s government is to collaborate with the labour party to explore and negotiate some of their proposals with the EU, including some representatives from the other parties like SNP and DUP. It is never too late, and not impossible, stands to reason in the national interest, and a fresh democratic approach for a united solution serving both the UK and EU. Such a Brexit deal will never be defeated in the UK parliament, will take the country out of the current turmoil, and demonstrate its merits. Labour’s proposal is a negotiated new customs union, a modified version of the current customs union, which I am of course harping on.

 

[Supine]

Business will not allow a no deal-ultimately, they run the political show

I'm starting to wish that was true!

 

[killer b]

ha.

 

[spitfire]

715 likes and no fucker turned up. Social media politics in a nutshell. Hahahahaha.

 

[killer b]

Rumour has it that numbers briefly swelled to four.

 

[DexterTCN]

Well that's nonsense, EU citizens that have been here 5 or more years have the right to UK citizenship.

Can you provide a link to that, cheers.

 

[Ranbay]

Well that's nonsense, EU citizens that have been here 5 or more years have the right to UK citizenship.

Continuous, maybe they moved about a bit as people do?

 

[belboid]

Well that's nonsense, EU citizens that have been here 5 or more years have the right to UK citizenship.

And no one ever gets refused it based on some nonsense? Tell that to the Windrush folks.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Can you provide a link to that, cheers.

As a European citizen, you are deemed to automatically acquire Permanent Residence after completing 5 lawful years in the UK under theEuropean Regulations; the pre-requisite to applying for British Citizenship.

eu citizens rights to uk citzenship - Google Search

I've know a couple of people from the EU that has gone the whole hog & got a UK passport, which isn't cheap, the cheaper option is just to acquire 'Permanent Residence', and/or this new 'Settled Status', which is coming in.

Continuous, maybe they moved about a bit as people do?

They state they have lived here for 20 years.

 

[Ranbay]

I've know a couple of people from the EU that has gone the whole hog & got a UK passport, which isn't cheap, the cheaper option is just to acquire 'Permanent Residence', and/or this new 'Settled Status', which is coming in.



They state they have lived here for 20 years.

Good point.

 

[Teaboy]

Well that's nonsense, EU citizens that have been here 5 or more years have the right to UK citizenship.

tbh its just a meaningless isolated tweet. Is she actually from an EU country? Whats her criminal record background etc? Standing alone its just plain odd.

 

[belboid]

I've know a couple of people from the EU that has gone the whole hog & got a UK passport, which isn't cheap, the cheaper option is just to acquire 'Permanent Residence', and/or this new 'Settled Status', which is coming in.



They state they have lived here for 20 years.

But does the UK government accept that they have lived here twenty years?