SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Yeahhhhhh it's good he didn't do that.
Is Brexit actually going to happen?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
Yeahhhhhh it's good he didn't do that.
bemused
Well-Known Member
I doubt they'd get the vote for election through parliament.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
They won't need to if the VoNC goes in.
bemused
Well-Known Member
I think the DUP will vote with her at that point. Although I'm sure May would like to be put out of her misery.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
They're saying on Newsnight it's pretty tight even if they do.
bemused
Well-Known Member
If it goes to a GE I think Labour could win, because bizarrely they are more united than the Tories.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
I think they would win, but in government they might prove you wrong!
I'd bet as far as *will* win. Jam tomorrow.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Fuck up as every bit of this is, surely May's chances of getting to the March next year got stronger tonight? No major challenges in cabinet, cabinet members for the moment inside pissing out etc. The maths still isn't good for Tories who want to challenge her for the leadership and she just takes all those defeatist, weary fucking MPs one step closer to the end of the process. Having said all that, the agreement is very remain-y and should be annoying the fuck out of the swivellers. However I don't see a million people turning out for a demo to support them any time soon.
In the end it will (obviously) be about the choices put before parliament, whether substantive amendments are accepted, whether turning 'the deal' down automatically means 'no deal' etc. Must admit I haven't even bothered looking at the snp and libdem potential stances. They are obviously remainiacs*, but will presumably vote with may if the choice is her shit show vs No Deal. I still think I can see an easier path to May getting her deal through than the grand coalition of swivellers, labour and dup.
* I do know the snp want a 2nd ref, but that's unlikely to be on offer from either may or Corbyn.
In the end it will (obviously) be about the choices put before parliament, whether substantive amendments are accepted, whether turning 'the deal' down automatically means 'no deal' etc. Must admit I haven't even bothered looking at the snp and libdem potential stances. They are obviously remainiacs*, but will presumably vote with may if the choice is her shit show vs No Deal. I still think I can see an easier path to May getting her deal through than the grand coalition of swivellers, labour and dup.
* I do know the snp want a 2nd ref, but that's unlikely to be on offer from either may or Corbyn.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
An interesting point being discussed on the telly was that May would have hoped that what people were talking about was the possibility of No Deal, and what they're actually talking about is how bad the deal is and whether she can hang on.
I think one of the reasons for that could be that this agreement signifies that the EU is quite happy for this to drag on forever. They're not gonna be enforcing a hard deadline on leaving. If May makes it until March, what then? Still got the clock ticking on the actual Brexit deal and if time runs out it's the Single Market until 20XX or the EU says so.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
rumours that there are likely to be enough letters to the 1922 committee to bring about a leadership vote. Brexiteer tories are having a meltdown.
Still time for cabinet resignations.
Government collapses in time for christmas?
who knows? although i think the tory phoney war is over and a lot of shit is going to hit the fan over the next few weeks.
Still time for cabinet resignations.
Government collapses in time for christmas?
who knows? although i think the tory phoney war is over and a lot of shit is going to hit the fan over the next few weeks.
bemused
Well-Known Member
Now we have the deal in detail, I'm hoping that its detractors bring forward some alternatives beyond walking away. I don't expect to see any, but I live in hope.
bemused
Well-Known Member
The bloke who screamed NO BREXIT all over May's TV statement gives me the heeby-jeebies, it's apocolyptic this shit.
I was waiting for her to turn around and tell Ken Clark to fuck off.
ska invita
back on the other side
If you are a Tory Brexiteer who is unhappy about the deal, what options do you have now?
I reckon the options are limited to:
1. Decide its better to stay in the EU than take this deal and manoeuvre for that eventuality. Doubt there's anyone on this path but its logically possible
2. The Michael Gove position (supposedly), recognise that the deal leaves room for future changes, recognise that at least with this deal Brexit happens, and play a long game to push it further. Better to at least get Brexit to happen than for the door to close.
3. Vote of No Confidence and try to replace May. This cant end well. There's not even time to have a full leadership election and unless the new leader is someone who promises to torpedo the whole thing and crash out its hard to see the outcome changing. And its unlikely such a candidate would win. Even Leadsom is on board with this May deal now. ...maybe a crash out brexit candidate could win, as its the party membership with the final vote, but still a massive gamble and extra season of shit show, most likely to end in failure and embarrassment .
4. Hold tight for three weeks, vote against the deal, and then....no one knows what might happen - the vote might not even be binding in legal terms, and the crisis could result in an election or even the whole Brexit process could be halted. Massive gamble, which could lose Brexit for a generation. Hard to see a commons vote against the deal quickly equalling a harder brexit.
Cant think of any other options. Top themselves maybe.
Right now they might be fuming but I reckon in the cold light of the days ahead they'll calculate #2 is their best bet and less tory 'rebels' will vote against it than might be expected.
I reckon the options are limited to:
1. Decide its better to stay in the EU than take this deal and manoeuvre for that eventuality. Doubt there's anyone on this path but its logically possible
2. The Michael Gove position (supposedly), recognise that the deal leaves room for future changes, recognise that at least with this deal Brexit happens, and play a long game to push it further. Better to at least get Brexit to happen than for the door to close.
3. Vote of No Confidence and try to replace May. This cant end well. There's not even time to have a full leadership election and unless the new leader is someone who promises to torpedo the whole thing and crash out its hard to see the outcome changing. And its unlikely such a candidate would win. Even Leadsom is on board with this May deal now. ...maybe a crash out brexit candidate could win, as its the party membership with the final vote, but still a massive gamble and extra season of shit show, most likely to end in failure and embarrassment .
4. Hold tight for three weeks, vote against the deal, and then....no one knows what might happen - the vote might not even be binding in legal terms, and the crisis could result in an election or even the whole Brexit process could be halted. Massive gamble, which could lose Brexit for a generation. Hard to see a commons vote against the deal quickly equalling a harder brexit.
Cant think of any other options. Top themselves maybe.
Right now they might be fuming but I reckon in the cold light of the days ahead they'll calculate #2 is their best bet and less tory 'rebels' will vote against it than might be expected.
Though even if they get the 48 letters supposedly everyone gets a "are you sure you mean it" call back....
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
GE, Corbyn win, Socialist plan of production, tell the EU to swivel. Jobs a good un
Not gonna happen like but there's your answer. The public voted to end increasingly predatory neoliberal capitalism comrade, we must respect the referendum result.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Think this is probably what Boris has decided. I am sceptical Jo Johnson's resignation had nothing to do with fraternal solidarity and the possibility of future cabinet nepotism.
bemused
Well-Known Member
Jeez over thrown by Lisa Nandy.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
dont underestimate the appeal for the brexiteers of going down fighting - they can then feel all virtuous and principled and it doesn't actually cost them anything. It also enhances their careers within whatever "brexit was betrayed!" political movement emerges from the rubble.
bemused
Well-Known Member
No deal won't get through, a Canada whatever whatever deal won't either - this is most likely the best they get.
If they try to kick her out and she hangs on they are stuck with her for a year.
There is a long list of stuff I dislike May for, but, when it comes to the ERG headbangers queuing up against her I hope she wins.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Yes that's possible. But in itself that would be a huge new political development if it happened.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
This really. The hard brexitists will be splentic tonight and full of piss and vinegar, but their actual choices are closing down. They should have gone for May straight after the 2017 election. She may well have resigned if they had. Doesn't mean they'd have got a hard Brexit with one of their own balmpots in charge, but they could have left it too late now.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Yep. Farage for example is not wrong to say that many people make good careers off the EU - he's one of them.
Wookey
Muppet is not a slur
Ha, it's great innit! Never looked on a site like that before! Ew.
"Anyone wishing May to go should remember this:
The electorate decided in 2016. To have a rerun of this election now would be a betrayal of democracy. May hasn't even been given the chance to finish the job,
To decide to have a rerun of the 2016 election would damage the public's faith in democracy."
They're quite witty, some of them.
Wookey
Muppet is not a slur
ska invita
back on the other side
...however what would that go down fighting really look like? to do it properly it would get really ugly, it would mean ignoring the will of the commons, it would mean sticking their arses in the face of remainers, it would mean fucking over capitalist mates etc - supposedly the City has got a good deal here and are happy enough with it. Its proper kamikaze stuff....theyve probably had a few drinks at this time of night and reckon they're hard enough, but when it comes to it I dont think they'll follow through.
There would be a cost to them i think...
a crash out was never going to be pretty, but it needs a semblance of order to it...this lot grabbing the steering wheel and driving it over the cliff at the last turn would make it even more chaotic than it would already have been.
That's the irony, by my logic at least, that the most likely outcome will be something like the thing agreed today - an outcome that not one single voter thinks is a good idea.Similar threads
