Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Wilf]

...however what would that go down fighting really look like? to do it properly it would get really ugly, it would mean ignoring the will of the commons, it would mean sticking their arses in the face of remainers, it would mean fucking over capitalist mates etc - supposedly the City has got a good deal here and are happy enough with it. Its proper kamikaze stuff....theyve probably had a few drinks at this time of night and reckon they're hard enough, but when it comes to it I dont think they'll follow through.

There would be a cost i think

Maybe Michael Gove will set himself on fire as a political protest - but at the last minute decide to set Boris Johnson on fire instead.

 

[DotCommunist]

balmpots

 

[Kaka Tim]

...however what would that go down fighting really look like? to do it properly it would get really ugly, it would mean ignoring the will of the commons, it would mean sticking their arses in the face of remainers, it would mean fucking over capitalist mates etc - supposedly the City has got a good deal here and are happy enough with it. Its proper kamikaze stuff....theyve probably had a few drinks at this time of night and reckon they're hard enough, but when it comes to it I dont think they'll follow through.

There would be a cost to them i think...

a crash out was never going to be pretty, but it needs a semblance of order to it...this lot grabbing the steering wheel and driving it over the cliff at the last turn would make it even more chaotic than it would already have been.

we're talking about tory mps here - so sadly there wont be any actual fighting. They vote against mays deal, they vote to being may down, they vote against whatever comes out of the constitutional meltdown that follows the deal being rejected, they vote against a 2nd ref or a50 extension or whatever. Its costs them nothing and they keep their "integrity".

 

[philosophical]

People might not be inclined or persuaded to vote in a particular way in Parliament, so the place to hide could be in abstentions. A bit like citing courts in Scotland who allow a not proven verdict.
The Parliamentary arithmetic may not be as easy to call as it seems.

 

[Ranbay]

 

[cupid_stunt]

First resignation is in, the Northern Ireland minister.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

A Norn minister, not The



First of many today

 

[Pickman's model]

First resignation is in, the Northern Ireland minister.

And so begins the unravelling

 

[Pickman's model]

A Norn minister, not The



First of many today

The cabinet this evening will be able to into a wardrobe. And they will, as raging mps search the commons for them

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

If you are a Tory Brexiteer who is unhappy about the deal, what options do you have now?
I reckon the options are limited to:

1. Decide its better to stay in the EU than take this deal and manoeuvre for that eventuality. Doubt there's anyone on this path but its logically possible
2. The Michael Gove position (supposedly), recognise that the deal leaves room for future changes, recognise that at least with this deal Brexit happens, and play a long game to push it further. Better to at least get Brexit to happen than for the door to close.
3. Vote of No Confidence and try to replace May. This cant end well. There's not even time to have a full leadership election and unless the new leader is someone who promises to torpedo the whole thing and crash out its hard to see the outcome changing. And its unlikely such a candidate would win. Even Leadsom is on board with this May deal now. ...maybe a crash out brexit candidate could win, as its the party membership with the final vote, but still a massive gamble and extra season of shit show, most likely to end in failure and embarrassment .
4. Hold tight for three weeks, vote against the deal, and then....no one knows what might happen - the vote might not even be binding in legal terms, and the crisis could result in an election or even the whole Brexit process could be halted. Massive gamble, which could lose Brexit for a generation. Hard to see a commons vote against the deal quickly equalling a harder brexit.

Cant think of any other options. Top themselves maybe.
Right now they might be fuming but I reckon in the cold light of the days ahead they'll calculate #2 is their best bet and less tory 'rebels' will vote against it than might be expected.

Though even if they get the 48 letters supposedly everyone gets a "are you sure you mean it" call back....

2, Gove.

Brexit happens and the finer details can be amended as the years roll on.


Vote of no confidence may be called, I reckon May will survive it.

 

[Winot]

Irish border kicked into long grass. If UK can’t find a solution then it would seem to in effect be staying in SM/CU.
MView attachment 122368

This deal was predictable as soon as the December 2017 accord was signed.

 

[danny la rouge]

First resignation is in, the Northern Ireland minister.

Not the Northern Ireland minister, a Northern Ireland minister.

Ie a junior minister to the Secretary of State, Karen Bradley.

 

[Mr Moose]

Labour says ‘no’ or even ‘non’. We can’t be sure.

Labour will vote against Theresa May's Brexit deal, Keir Starmer says

 

[Winot]

Labour says ‘no’ or even ‘non’. We can’t be sure.

Labour will vote against Theresa May's Brexit deal, Keir Starmer says

May’s deal is pretty close to what Labour were calling for. It’s probably the best option realistically that May could have achieved. It’s still worse than staying in the EU imo.

 

[ska invita]

I posted an FT link yesterday or two days ago about TARP Brexit....heard that mentioned a few time since...don't know if the link worked or just went to a subscribe page, but its the idea that "Brexit vote could follow the same pattern as TARP, the 2008 bailout in the United States: “voted down, markets puke, passes second time with small changes" <<<sounds very imaginable.

 

[cupid_stunt]

A Norn minister, not The

Not the Northern Ireland minister, a Northern Ireland minister.

Ie a junior minister to the Secretary of State, Karen Bradley.

Sky News keeps saying 'Northern Ireland Minister', rather than 'a Northern Ireland Minister', the bastards.

But, yeah, you two are correct.

 

[Ted Striker]

The bloke who screamed NO BREXIT all over May's TV statement gives me the heeby-jeebies, it's apocolyptic this shit.

I couldn't stop laughing at it

 

[Mr Moose]

This deal was predictable as soon as the December 2017 accord was signed.

Did you predict it?

 

[redsquirrel]

I posted an FT link yesterday or two days ago about TARP Brexit....heard that mentioned a few time since...don't know if the link worked or just went to a subscribe page, but its the idea that "Brexit vote could follow the same pattern as TARP, the 2008 bailout in the United States: “voted down, markets puke, passes second time with small changes" <<<sounds very imaginable.

For once I agree with you.

I suspect that something like this will happen. The government will struggle to get it through parliament but with a lot of arm-twisting and theatrics and some very minor tweaking it will ultimately pass.

 

[danny la rouge]

Sky News keeps saying 'Northern Ireland Minister', rather than 'a Northern Ireland Minister', the bastards.

But, yeah, you two are correct.

But just for clarity's sake, this is not a cabinet post. It's a junior governmental role, assistant to the Secretary of State. There are around 100 non cabinet junior ministers. It's not a particular loss for May, in all honesty. For resignations of this level of members of government to be significant, they have to come in droves. (Which may yet happen, of course).

 

[danny la rouge]

I posted an FT link yesterday or two days ago about TARP Brexit....heard that mentioned a few time since...don't know if the link worked or just went to a subscribe page, but its the idea that "Brexit vote could follow the same pattern as TARP, the 2008 bailout in the United States: “voted down, markets puke, passes second time with small changes" <<<sounds very imaginable.

It does indeed sound imaginable.

ETA. But maybe not now.

 

[DexterTCN]

Raab's resigned.

 

[Dr. Furface]

Raab’s resigned!

 

[danny la rouge]

Raab's resigned.

Now, that's a significant resignation.

 

[steveo87]

Raab's gone.
(Can't find a link yet, but no doubt by the time I post this, someone has found one.)

 

[ruffneck23]

Dominic Raab (@DominicRaab) on Twitter

 

[danny la rouge]

Raab's gone.
(Can't find a link yet, but no doubt by the time I post this, someone has found one.)

Brexit Secretary Raab resigns

 

[Winot]

Did you predict it?

See date of post that I quoted.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Raab's gone.
(Can't find a link yet, but no doubt by the time I post this, someone has found one.)

Brexit Secretary Raab resigns

 

[steveo87]

Just because I have it now:
Brexit Secretary Raab resigns