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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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Why do you think there shouldn't have been a referendum? The role of the press aside it was in the tory manifesto and people (in theory) voted for it.
I don't think there shouldn't have been a referendum, but the way it was done was a sick joke.

There should have been what Scotland had in Indyref, a big document that spelled out in detail what Brexit would mean, what the negotiation would hope to achieve, and that document should have formed the basis of the Brexit debate ahead of a referendum. Any serious deviation from that document would then be accountable and resulting processes clear. Its not hindsight this - referendum happen around the world and there's precedent for good practice.

instead we got nebulous mood boards, and brexit colour pallettes
The two problems with that idea are that, first, Cameron expected to win and what exactly leaving meant would then have been an academic issue and, second, without a declaration of A50 and the subsequent negotiations, there wasn't and couldn't be anything clear about the sort of Brexit we would end up with.
 
The two problems with that idea are that, first, Cameron expected to win and what exactly leaving meant would then have been an academic issue and, second, without a declaration of A50 and the subsequent negotiations, there wasn't and couldn't be anything clear about the sort of Brexit we would end up with.
Not sure its that worth getting into this as its too late now, but it would've been written by a group tory Brexiters (obvs not Cameron). Disagree about the A50 point. Obviously the negotiations would still have to take place but you can begin to set out the terrain and if the negotiations create a result that would have been substantially different from what people voted for in the original paper then it would clearly need to be revisited, with another referendum or other democratic process (within the commons).
 
Costas Lapavitsas: Socialism starts at home
some good points in here re: internationalism. Not sure I like the title, but have a read
Just got around to reading this, and the below immediately jumped out at me.
Lapavitsas  Do we believe in our own strength or not? Do we believe in the strength of working people, the power of the working class and the poorer layers of British society? If we don’t, we might as well pack up and go home. If the magnitude of the task scares us, there is no point talking about socialism and what the left should do. We can confront these people and defeat them – of course we can. We can oppose the EU and big business and we can defeat them. We should rely on the strength of working-class hostility towards the current regime in Britain and the current state of social affairs – which is very deep. And we can rely on the yearning of ordinary people for popular sovereignty.
Absolutely bang on target.
"We should rely on the strength of working-class hostility towards the current regime in Britain and the current state of social affairs – which is very deep."

That there's real hostility out there is undeniable, and its good to see so much more open hostility and scepticism, to politicians, to mainstream media, to power institutions.
It doesn't feel reliable though. Around the world that hostility has not for the most part gone into a constructive, socialist, mutual aid, direction. Its been successfully channelled into a selfish, inward and hateful direction.

We've just experienced a major earthquake to the global order by way of the bankers casino crash of 2008. It was perfectly clear to the whole world what had happened and who was at fault. It was and remains a massive open goal for the global left to win the arguments and force through significant changes. Where was "the strength of working people, the power of the working class and the poorer layers of British society" this last decade? As a populace we're supporting austerity, keeping calm and carrying on and voting for continuity, on the back of 40 years of the same direction.

No I don't feel ready to rely on the strength of that hostility, I wish I could. I've already felt the sting of having it turn on me and mine.
The one truly reliable force out there are the disaster capitalists and their agents, and they're ready at any moment to exploit any vulnerability. Just as they did so successfully over the financial crash.

Doesn't mean we should "pack up and go home" though.
I'm reluctant to make a military analogy but like any army fighting rearguard you have to be strategic in your moves....blind belief in your strength is charge of the light brigade stuff.*

(supposedly light brigade was a miscommunication rather than a blind charge, but you know what i mean)
 
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Why do you think there shouldn't have been a referendum? The role of the press aside it was in the tory manifesto and people (in theory) voted for it.

cos its a very complex issue which was always vulnerable to be highjacked by simplistic, emotive populist arguments fueled by xenophobia and deluded nationalism - alongside a desire by many people just to give the governing elite a solid kick in the bollocks.
I believe in direct democracy - but in the sense people getting involved in the nitty gritty detail of policy - i.e local schools policy being decided in open forums by councilors, teachers, parents and self selecting "communities of interest" with access to expert advice.
Someone voting "yeah fuck the EU" based on the fact that they feel the EU is part of some vague over power thats meant their local pub has shut, that their wages are shit and there's no council houses cos immigrants - is not going to give any thought to how it impacts everything form northern ireland, to NHS staffing or the price of food.
The issues fucking up society are rooted, not in the fact that the uk is wedded to the EU, but that it is wedded to an all pervasive system of international capitalism. Leaving the EU does not change that fact - and actually leaves the UK more vulnerable to capital's predations (which is exactly the attraction for the people leading the push for brexit) .
 
I'm reluctant to make a military analogy but like any army fighting rearguard you have to be strategic in your moves....blind belief in your strength is charge of the light brigade stuff.*

(supposedly light brigade was a miscommunication rather than a blind charge, but you know what i mean)
:confused: your simile all over the place
 
As a populace we're supporting austerity, keeping calm and carrying on and voting for continuity, on the back of 40 years of the same direction.
literally no mention of the labour left rise and anti austerity opinion within and without it. Yes the labour left is what it is, let us list the flaws. I'm not here to hold them up, I'm pointing out that the monolithic 'we' you conjure doesn't exist. There is a successful party in the country opposed to austerity. This is a massive blind spot for every 'brexit is like trump' analyses I've read, just goes unmentioned. I mean, not even slagged off and dismissed as hopeless. Just not mentioned.
 
literally no mention of the labour left rise and anti austerity opinion within and without it. Yes the labour left is what it is, let us list the flaws. I'm not here to hold them up, I'm pointing out that the monolithic 'we' you conjure doesn't exist. There is a successful party in the country opposed to austerity. This is a massive blind spot for every 'brexit is like trump' analyses I've read, just goes unmentioned. I mean, not even slagged off and dismissed as hopeless. Just not mentioned.
I support whats happening within the labour party. In fact im even - shoot me now - hopeful about it. To me its not about the party per se but a grassroots takeover of the party and I hope it comes to something. I'm not saying there is no resistance, of course there is. Its still a minority position though with massive weaknesses, and that needs to be recognised.

I'm not saying Brexit = Trump. In a way my post isn't about Brexit at all, but a wider point. But on Brexit if we have a shock doctrine - crash out Brexit in March 2019 and it becomes a question of whose force will be dominant, the hostility of the working class over the efficiency and greed of the business class my money is firmly on the latter. They already have their plans drawn up. Liam Fox and co have done their homework and are waiting for the starting whistle.

ETA: Costas wants us to crash out Im pretty sure Im right in saying.
 
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What do you reckon DotCommunist , are you up for crashing out in March?
I'm a fairly cautious person, I admit that. Im up for taking risks but I want better odds.
If there were to be a crash out and it were to cause some degree of chaos, who would benefit politically from that? My fear is that it would be the right that would benefit. An authoritarian right at that. And potentially not just in the UK but across Europe.

So it would be lose-lose. The poorest would suffer the most in any situation of economic chaos, and the authoritarian/populist right would gain politically.
 
If there were to be a crash out and it were to cause some degree of chaos, who would benefit politically from that? My fear is that it would be the right that would benefit. An authoritarian right at that. And potentially not just in the UK but across Europe.

So it would be lose-lose. The poorest would suffer the most in any situation of economic chaos, and the authoritarian/populist right would gain politically.
an authoritarian right? is there any other sort? as for the right doing well across europe, well, i can only assume you've not paid any attention to the right doing very nice in certain parts of europe for a number of years now.
 
Resisting the urge to facepalm, that's yet another example of the lack of any reason to do a brexit, even from the minister for doing a brexit. He stresses the importance of a 'frictionless border'. Right, you mean like the border is right now, then? So the arrangement there is right now is actually the one you want? But you're going to change it? And that's going to be a good thing? How?

It is also a tacit admission that 'no deal' brexit is not an option.
 
Since we don't have a 'stupid shit Dominic Raab has said today' thread, here's his little epiphany after looking at a map for the very first time:


i get from that that what he's let slip and "didn't realise" was not how close France was but just how utterly reliant we are on that pinch point of the Dover crossing. I expect they've been sitting around saying, yeah but what about this or what about that, and now finally realised, oh we're totally reliant on this one thing.

Remember the hauliers petrol price strike? Made me realise just how easy it is to bring the whole system to a standstill. If you could close down Dover for a couple of days you'd have mass looting by the third day.
 
i get from that that what he's let slip and "didn't realise" was not how close France was but just how utterly reliant we are on that pinch point of the Dover crossing. I expect they've been sitting around saying, yeah but what about this or what about that, and now finally realised, oh we're totally reliant on this one thing.
I think this is charitable in the extreme - 'peculiar geography', indeed - but who the fuck didn't know this? It's the sort of thing you'd get for junior school homework - how do goods come into the UK?
 
I think this is charitable in the extreme - 'peculiar geography', indeed - but who the fuck didn't know this? It's the sort of thing you'd get for junior school homework - how do goods come into the UK?
...well there's been loads of blue sky thinking about trade deals with other countries being done in seconds and those new goods appearing magically, using other ports than Dover (which cant handle the capacity) etc.
 
i think most people haven't weighed anything up. the in and outs of brexit are for political spods only. and a lot of working class people didn't vote or voted leave.

What bothers me about this is that you probably think you're a "political spod" (dunno what that is hope I'm not one) and I don't think you understand the ins and outs of Brexit. But you think it's other people who haven't weighed anything up - not you.
 
I’m not certain there is much of a change - polling before the referendum indicated a lead for remain, probably even stronger than current polling, and may have been a genuine measure of public opinion at that time despite the result. Democracy’s problem is that people are always more motivated to vote against something than for it, so leave was always going to fire people up more. Hence the result probably wasn't an exact picture of public mood.

Not many people are that enthusiastic about the EU, it’s a bureaucratic thing in the background of most people’s lives, voting for it for many would have felt a bit like voting in support of your gas and electricity supplier or something like that, hence why ‘project fear’ became necessary to get people out (which seemed to work to some extent given the turnout), backed up by those who felt the anti-immigrant nature of some of the forces behind brexit was something to take a stand against.

A re-run would have people fired up on both sides, remain would now have something to fight against, and the backing of more of industry/establishment which didn’t expect the result first time round and sat on the fence so as not to piss off at least 40% of the population. Leave would be angry about potentially having victory taken from their hands, and the also have the recent arrogance of the EU in negotiations to point at. I think it would be hugely more divisive and dirtier than first time around, and not much good would come of it whatever result.

Agree with all of this - but just thinking aloud:

Would the debate on immigration at least be a lot less unpleasant, or at least a better debate?

For years the standard tactic of the politicians and the media has been to blame immigrants, and keep a constant anti migrant narrative going.

Now that's led to a rejection of their systems and their institutions and they're worried about where they're gonna get cheap labour from. The narrative isn't nearly as poisonous as it used to be.

Would it be different - at least on immigration - now?
 
I'm not saying there is no resistance, of course there is. Its still a minority position though with massive weaknesses, and that needs to be recognised.
if its a minority position why did so many millions vote for labours manifesto? Enough to get a hung parliament. We know the C-byn himself polls badly and his unlovely labour right cohorts can't be that inspiring. So weaknesses, yes, but stronger than its been in the last 30 years imo. So I disagree about the idea that 'we' are all full steam ahead supporting austerity. You mentioned 'voting for continuity, on the back of 40 years of the same direction.' so I wonder what direction of travel you saw britain with the EU continuing. More of the same, but labour supported austerity.
I'm not saying Brexit = Trump. In a way my post isn't about Brexit at all, but a wider point.
yeah fair enough, but its startling how often the labour party has to be ignored, or its voters downplayed numbers wise, for these arguments to work though. It actually goes hand in hand with not mentioning the rise of an electorally successful fascist right in the EU. And of course right back to the old one, sections of the left just giving up on the idea of a working class movement after thatcher and instead looking to the EU to be protector of liberties and all that nice stuff it doesn't actually do.

I understand the position, I just obviously don't agree and find it defeatist. Keeping your powder dry for a day that never comes, voting eu in the hope that technocrats will keep the wolves from the door. Of course you could say that my position is mad and reckless and foolish. A lot of people do.
 
I understand the position, I just obviously don't agree and find it defeatist. Keeping your powder dry for a day that never comes, voting eu in the hope that technocrats will keep the wolves from the door. Of course you could say that my position is mad and reckless and foolish. A lot of people do.
So are you up for Crash Out in March?
 
What bothers me about this is that you probably think you're a "political spod" (dunno what that is hope I'm not one) and I don't think you understand the ins and outs of Brexit. But you think it's other people who haven't weighed anything up - not you.

"Political spod" = people who follow politics closely. Which by definition is everyone posting on this board - and especially this thread. So yes - everyone following this thread is better informed about the ins and out of brexit then most of the population. Thats not a judgement its just a statement of the obvious.
 
"Political spod" = people who follow politics closely. Which by definition is everyone posting on this board - and especially this thread. So yes - everyone following this thread is better informed about the ins and out of brexit then most of the population. Thats not a judgement its just a statement of the obvious.

I totally disagree. Quite a lot of people on this thread are frankly clueless about politics in general and about the EU. I don't think you should assume that because you spend more time doing something, you neccessarily have it mastered.

I just finished playing football, play every week, always have since I stopped playing competitive sport (rugby). I'm still fucking shit tho :D
 
I totally disagree. Quite a lot of people on this thread are frankly clueless about politics in general and about the EU. I don't think you should assume that because you spend more time doing something, you neccessarily have it mastered.

I just finished playing football, play every week, always have since I stopped playing competitive sport (rugby). I'm still fucking shit tho :D
Yep, that's definitely how to do politics. Tell everyone else how clueless they are about it.
 
Isn't that your basic approach? Tell everyone they just don't understand how bad Brexit will be and if they had any sense they'd be just as panicked as you are?
No. I tell people how bad I think brexit may be, and the process already has been. And I give the reasons why I think that, and also challenge ideas put forward by others regarding good things they may think come from it. That's not telling people they're clueless.

You and others read into that other things that are not there. The clown andysays above, for instance, who rarely bothers to read what people actually say before launching into an angry rant against what he thinks they probably have said.
 
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