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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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It absolutely is. It’s a tactical decision. I think it’d be daft to call another referendum you’re going to lose, regardless of whether there’s a legitimate case for calling it.
So there are tactics involved in calling referendums. It's not just all about correct process and principle. Of course Cameron fucked it up royally in that regard, but still, he was probably considering it.

I still find your positioning on this very strange, given that you stress the process element. I was asked in a referendum a question I didn't particularly want to be asked. And now, due to process, any second referendum cannot have an answer on it that I even remotely agree with. And that's a democratic process?
 
No, you didn’t.

There are two steps to my argument for another Indy ref:

1. There is a constitutional difference in what people were asked to agree to and what they’ll end up with.

2. A majority of people need to think a second referendum is justified.
Nope. As with the brexit referendum, there was just a simple one-line question with no caveats or provisos on it. Continued membership of the EU was no more on the Scottish ref ballot paper than immigration was on the brexit ballot paper. That various people campaigned, and now act, as if they were is a separate matter.

As for your point 2., without having a poll to ask, you cannot know whether a majority think it is justified. With brexit, you can at least now know that a chunk of people think it justified strongly enough to march for it.
 
I’ve given my opinion on this several times, as I’m sure you know. It’s probably why you’re asking.
I'm not surprised it's come up before, but I don't remember seeing it, so no. I'm interested in the parity (or lack of) between the two.

I think there’s a reasonable case to be made for a second independence referendum on the grounds that there have been material changes to circumstances. ... People were misled during the campaign ...
This is why I ask, because by any measure (a) the implementation and likely outcomes of Brexit have materially changed since it was proposed, and (b) people have clearly been misled. Whether that has happened to an extent that it passes your tests on the same basis, I don't know, and it's inherently difficult to judge because of the intangibility of both the 'what is Brexit?' question and the developing answer. That's not to say a second referendum is wise, or easy to frame, or should be carried out now, which is all problematic, but it does seem like you might have a different approach to one than the other.
 
I'm not surprised it's come up before, but I don't remember seeing it, so no. I'm interested in the parity (or lack of) between the two.

This is why I ask, because by any measure (a) the implementation and likely outcomes of Brexit have materially changed since it was proposed, and (b) people have clearly been misled. Whether that has happened to an extent that it passes your tests on the same basis, I don't know, and it's inherently difficult to judge because of the intangibility of both the 'what is Brexit?' question and the developing answer. That's not to say a second referendum is wise, or easy to frame, or should be carried out now, which is all problematic, but it does seem like you might have a different approach to one than the other.
Yep. Sorry danny, but I think you've blinded yourself a little bit here with your own rationalisations.
 
So there are tactics involved in calling referendums.
Of course there are.

I may be justified in punching your nose. But if I think you’ll beat me up I may be wise not to.

It's not just all about correct process and principle.
Excuse me? Are you saying that this therefore means you can just keep asking until you get the “right” answer? Don’t be surprised if people take exception to that.
 
Of course there are.

I may be justified in punching your nose. But if I think you’ll beat me up I may be wise not to.


Excuse me? Are you saying that this therefore means you can just keep asking until you get the “right” answer? Don’t be surprised if people take exception to that.
No. I'm saying that your own argument is nowhere near as clear-cut as you think it is. And I haven't asked anyone anything. As I said before, a bunch of people want to be asked again. How many wanting to be asked again justifies asking again?
 
A majority. I’m surprised you don’t know that.
Really? You should need a majority wanting a question to be asked for the question to be put?
So before a referendum, you first have a referendum asking people if they want a referendum. And presumably before that, you need a referendum asking people if they want a referendum asking if they want a referendum...

I really don't think there was a majority in the UK demanding a referendum on EU membership before Cameron brought it up. I see precious little evidence of one. And even if there were, how would you tell?
 
people have clearly been misled
People are misled in every election by every campaigner.

If you can put a reasonable case that the constitutional arrangements people believed they were voting for are now not what they’re getting, then you have a parallel with Scottish independence.

If in either case a majority of people says this warrants a re-run, then it is justifiable to do so.

If, that being met, in either case the organisation/s who want the rerun think it is winnable, then they should try to win it.
 
If you can put a reasonable case that the constitutional arrangements people believed they were voting for are now not what they’re getting, then you have a parallel with Scottish independence.
This is one of my big criticisms of both referendums. There was a simple (simplistic) one-line question that contained no detail whatever of any constitutional arrangement. What does Scottish 'independence' really mean? It's as vague as brexit in that regard.
 
This is one of my big criticisms of both referendums. There was a simple (simplistic) one-line question that contained no detail whatever of any constitutional arrangement. What does Scottish 'independence' really mean? It's as vague as brexit in that regard.
A very, very large document was issued by the ScotGov. I have a copy of it. People can reasonably assume this is what the majority rejected in 2014.
 
You asked


I answered that question, not the one you changed it to.
But you don't really mean that, I'm guessing. What you really mean, given that you can't judge a majority without a vote, is that you think there should be sufficient clamour for something. So what constitutes sufficient clamour?
 
This could be your T Shirt.
So you dodge that.

Ok how about this: Given that the UK isn't a direct democracy, but a representative one, if parliament votes to have a second ref, then that's what there is, just as with the first one. They can then be lambasted or not for doing so. Truth is that they lose either way.
 
There's plenty of evidence that Leave voting corresponded very strongly with age (much moreso than education or ethnicity, which were all over the place), but I haven't seen any record of the economic status of the older voters. It could very well be the case that the older Leave vote owns no property and relies heavily on the winter fuel allowance. Or not. I haven't seen any statistics that show it.

Wasn't your claim though, it was LBJ's.

According to How Britain voted in the 2016 EU referendum huge majorities of C2, D and E voters opted for Leave so I very much doubt LBJ's claim can be justified.
 
I agree. So it’s going to be hard to make a case that people aren’t getting what they voted for.
Cos they voted for a vague thing.

So we have the contradictions and the lies and misinformation. If someone believed Davis, say, and voted accordingly, then they're not getting what they voted for. Or maybe they believed someone else's lie. And maybe without a plan in place, the question itself is pretty meaningless - what exactly do you want brexit for? Would need to be there, because not all this stuff is up to the UK government.

Switzerland has a similar, and as yet unresolved, pickle in that it voted in a referendum to end free movement of people from the EU. But that, the EU insists, means leaving the free market. But we don't want to do that, says the Swiss government. And so they're stuck. And the simple (simplistic) question on the ballot paper made no reference to this or any other complication - it just said 'free movement of people from the EU, yes or no?'

There's a basic issue of accountability here, and the lack of it for policies decided by referendum when 'it's not quite that simple' is the real answer.
 
So you dodge that.
No. You made up what I really meant. Shall I answer your question again?

But you don't really mean that, I'm guessing. What you really mean, given that you can't judge a majority without a vote, is that you think there should be sufficient clamour for something.
No. I said, in response to your question that used the word “again” twice, that before asking again, there needs to be a majority of opinion who think asking again is justified. In other words: we were just asked this: why do we need to be asked again?

So what constitutes sufficient clamour?
I think if there are consistent opinion polls over a sustained period saying a majority thinks asking again is justified, then it is reasonable to make the case that there is demand for being asked again the question they’ve recently answered.
 
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