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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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Ultimately, I'm just not convinced one can 'prove' the vote would have gone differently if Leave hadn't spent more than they were supposed to. Though does make you wonder what the point of spending rules is then!

I'm firmly in this camp. Yes the vote might not have gone differently, yes concentrating on the vote is a bit like the Dems in the US focussing on Russia, "You guys made a mistake can we go back to the neo-liberal status quo now please?"

However at what point do we get concerned about bought influence in our supposed democratic votes?
 
I'm firmly in this camp. Yes the vote might not have gone differently, yes concentrating on the vote is a bit like the Dems in the US focussing on Russia, "You guys made a mistake can we go back to the neo-liberal status quo now please?"

However at what point do we get concerned about bought influence in our supposed democratic votes?

Yes, but the ‘neo-liberal status quo’ will survive this perfectly well, in fact this kind of disruption is just a ding dong between different groups within it.
 
Well arguably the examples you state make my point - If they caused that amount of aggro over purely symbolic - and brain bashingly petty - issues such as drumcree, holy cross and flegs - how much more aggro will they create over something as fundamental as separating norn iron from GB via a sea border? An act that has a united Ireland as its logical - and possibly inevitable - outcome?
And what better way to unite unionists then an existential threat to the union?

Maybe I do, maybe I don't. My point is that certainly loyalism can cause strife, but for everytime in the last decade that they've talked about shutting down the province, they've failed to do so. There might be some violence but no strikes, no mass demonstrations, instead some Catholics get attacked but on the whole life just goes on.

Harryville was localised. As I've said before the flags protests were small scale and went out quickly. Their 'Civil right camp' in July 2013 on Twaddle Ave was an eyesore but moved no-one but the loyalist ultras. Their attempt to close down three catholic schools a few years back was an empty threat.

The OO has only 30,000 members, down from 100,000 in it's glory days. Loyalism/Unionism is riven with division. Their armed wing in the British Army has 5000 troops. The PSNI is over a third Catholic.

As I said before the DUP backing of Brexit was murky and dodgy, however their present stance is imo not so much about a border (alignment or otherwise) but more probably aimed at the GFA notion of consent: 50% + 1. Arlene has said that the GFA must be renegotiated, that is their long term goal and their price for supporting May's Brexit.

After all even with a customs border down the Irish sea, the occupied six counties are still occupied.
 
Maybe I do, maybe I don't. My point is that certainly loyalism can cause strife, but for everytime in the last decade that they've talked about shutting down the province, they've failed to do so. There might be some violence but no strikes, no mass demonstrations, instead some Catholics get attacked but on the whole life just goes on.

Harryville was localised. As I've said before the flags protests were small scale and went out quickly. Their 'Civil right camp' in July 2013 on Twaddle Ave was an eyesore but moved no-one but the loyalist ultras. Their attempt to close down three catholic schools a few years back was an empty threat.

The OO has only 30,000 members, down from 100,000 in it's glory days. Loyalism/Unionism is riven with division. Their armed wing in the British Army has 5000 troops. The PSNI is over a third Catholic.

As I said before the DUP backing of Brexit was murky and dodgy, however their present stance is imo not so much about a border (alignment or otherwise) but more probably aimed at the GFA notion of consent: 50% + 1. Arlene has said that the GFA must be renegotiated, that is their long term goal and their price for supporting May's Brexit.

After all even with a customs border down the Irish sea, the occupied six counties are still occupied.

Yes - militant unionism has been looking increasingly like an embarrassing anachronism kept going by a dwindling bunch of headbangers. But an Irish sea border is just the thing to give it a massive shot in the arm - surely that is obvious?

Do they have the strength to defeat the British state on this? no. but nor did the republicans during the troubles. still created a huge amount of aggro and pain.
 
I@m referring to the attempted lopping off of NI, by the liberals.
gerry-adams-9175806-1-402.jpg

a liberal recently
 
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