Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[sealion]

Heading for a retail crash now, just before Xmas.

UK retail sales falter in 'meagre' October, but house prices climb – business live

So people are spending less money on shit. Good news!

 

[sealion]

Non-food sales in slowest growth on record

 

[JimW]

Saw those stories earlier. It's still growth, however small, so not exactly start of the end times surely.

 

[butchersapron]

Saw those stories earlier. It's still growth, however small, so not exactly start of the end times surely.

The world already ended for some people in june 2016 for some people.

Anyway, it's good that people are spending more on activities and life than non-food commodities isn't it?

 

[SpackleFrog]

The world already ended for some people in june 2016 for some people.

Anyway, it's good that people are spending more on activities and life than non-food commodities isn't it?

To be fair that's probably cos they can't aford to buy non essential goods. So no.

 

[butchersapron]

To be fair that's probably cos they can't aford to buy non essential goods. So no.

The British Retail Consortium who provide the figures seem to think it's

“The decline was driven by the worst performance of non-food sales since our record began in January 2011, as consumers appear to have opted for outdoor experiences and excursions during half term, over visits to the shops. The growth in food sales meanwhile, adds some colour to this otherwise anaemic picture, but these figures are very much buoyed by inflation.

+ saving in expectation of price drops and sales + rise in cost of borrowing + delay in new iphone

 

[Raheem]

People have less disposable income now, as is also clear from the link your provide, Butchers. It's not that they are spending the money they would have spent at the shops on outdoor experiences and excursions, it's that going bowling is a cheaper way to spend a Saturday than buying a new sofa.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

it's that going bowling is a cheaper way to spend a Saturday than buying a new sofa.

If my local bowling alley is typical it's not that much cheaper

 

[mauvais]

So people are spending less money on shit. Good news!

Not if you work for someone selling shit, presumably.

 

[BemusedbyLife]

FUCK YOU man, right now the status quo is indefensible. It's fucking indefensible. And at the best of times the status quo is a pile of fucking shite. So no, it's not on me to argue against the status quo, not that's even what I was doing.



And this is just illiterate stuff. It's international relations, it's politics, it's about more than a set of rules which weren't designed to deal with this situation.

I'll repeat the question: can anybody who think's Brexit is irrational give me a rational argument for membership of the EU?

Firstly influence, proportionally the UK is 17% of the EU's economy, 13% of the population and its most powerful military, the biggest break on the UK's influence within the EU is in fact our reluctance to use that influence, using that influence to shape the EU will give us more influence on the world stage (for good or bad) than we will ever have alone, Outside the EU we will most likely align ourselves more with the US, I have a feeling you would be unhappy with that.
Secondly social trends, the EU has its faults but in many ways it has acted as a brake on the actions of UK governments especially Tory ones, the European Courts in particular have prevented much, Outside the EU, I suspect the UK will tack more to the polictical right, reducing such things as employment rights (in the name of economic growth) especially given that a backlash against immigration was a major drive in the leave vote.
The idea that the EU is holding back a working class uprising is even dafter than the idea than the one they're stopping us from rebuilding an empire.
The economic arguments are many but the best one is the fact that our economy is so tightly intertwined with the EU, I will give you an example, someone at work was bragging to me that he had bought a Ford rather than a BMW because of Brexit, firstly the Ford Focus is built in Germany not the UK as he believes, there are no Ford car factories in the UK but there are 2 Ford factories which make parts that are shipped to Germany to be put into the cars. Trading under WTO rules doesn't just mean that UK charges tariffs on the complete cars coming here, it means that the Germans charge tariffs on the gearboxes going there from Dagenham, Ford have already announced they will review the fate of the Dagenham plant post Brexit, at some point it may very well decide it makes sense to just make the gearboxes in Germany as well, There are a LOT of UK businesses like that and it makes sense to move production from the smaller market to the larger one, a post-Brexit Labour government would be powerless to stop it and a post-Brexit Tory one wouldn't even try.

 

[sleaterkinney]

I'll repeat the question: can anybody who think's Brexit is irrational give me a rational argument for membership of the EU?

The EU takes 43% of all UK exports, and we will have to pay higher tariffs to do this business.

 

[Silas Loom]

The EU takes 43% of all UK exports, and we will have to pay higher tariffs to do this business.

Quite. Although compared with non-tariff barriers, the tariff issue is almost inconsequential.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

By 'rational argument', what you really mean is 'an argument I will agree with'. Misuse of the word 'rational'.

 

[DotCommunist]

The idea that the EU is holding back a working class uprising is even dafter than the idea than the one they're stopping us from rebuilding an empire.

absurd caricature repeated enough its become your sorts second favourite trope next to the thickos belived the bus pledge stuff

but in many ways it has acted as a brake on the actions of UK governments especially Tory ones

citation needed

 

[BemusedbyLife]

absurd caricature repeated enough its become your sorts second favourite trope next to the thickos belived the bus pledge stuff

citation needed

I've read that a couple of times and still don't understand what it means if you could please rephrase I'll have a bash at answering it.
As for citations these are a couple I thought of straightaway, There are plenty more I could find if those annoying people next door would stop bothering me with work.

http://www2.cipd.co.uk/pm/peopleman...-holiday-pay-ruling-may-never-become-law.aspx
R (Secretary of State for the Home Department) v Immigration Appeal Tribunal and Surinder Singh - Wikipedia

 

[SpackleFrog]

The British Retail Consortium who provide the figures seem to think it's



+ saving in expectation of price drops and sales + rise in cost of borrowing + delay in new iphone

I suspect at least a big part of it is reduced income/spending power - as you say BRC seem to think "consumers appear to have opted for outdoor experiences and excursions during half term".

 

[Pickman's model]

I suspect at least a big part of it is reduced income/spending power - as you say BRC seem to think "consumers appear to have opted for outdoor experiences and excursions during half term".

a consumer opting for an outdoor experience during half-term recently

 

[not-bono-ever]

Less shopping / Growth in food sales: translation - we are not consuming more of anything , just spending more on day to day rations

 

[SpackleFrog]

Firstly influence, proportionally the UK is 17% of the EU's economy, 13% of the population and its most powerful military, the biggest break on the UK's influence within the EU is in fact our reluctance to use that influence, using that influence to shape the EU will give us more influence on the world stage (for good or bad) than we will ever have alone, Outside the EU we will most likely align ourselves more with the US, I have a feeling you would be unhappy with that.
Secondly social trends, the EU has its faults but in many ways it has acted as a brake on the actions of UK governments especially Tory ones, the European Courts in particular have prevented much, Outside the EU, I suspect the UK will tack more to the polictical right, reducing such things as employment rights (in the name of economic growth) especially given that a backlash against immigration was a major drive in the leave vote.
The idea that the EU is holding back a working class uprising is even dafter than the idea than the one they're stopping us from rebuilding an empire.
The economic arguments are many but the best one is the fact that our economy is so tightly intertwined with the EU, I will give you an example, someone at work was bragging to me that he had bought a Ford rather than a BMW because of Brexit, firstly the Ford Focus is built in Germany not the UK as he believes, there are no Ford car factories in the UK but there are 2 Ford factories which make parts that are shipped to Germany to be put into the cars. Trading under WTO rules doesn't just mean that UK charges tariffs on the complete cars coming here, it means that the Germans charge tariffs on the gearboxes going there from Dagenham, Ford have already announced they will review the fate of the Dagenham plant post Brexit, at some point it may very well decide it makes sense to just make the gearboxes in Germany as well, There are a LOT of UK businesses like that and it makes sense to move production from the smaller market to the larger one, a post-Brexit Labour government would be powerless to stop it and a post-Brexit Tory one wouldn't even try.

Leaving aside your bizarre valorisation of the ECJ as a progressive body, this is just what you "expect", ie that the UK will align itself to the US (which it has always done, remember Iraq?) move to the right (Why? It's moving to the left now), that the UK will have to trade under WTO rules (not gonna happen). It's not a rational argument.

As for the intertwined thing - the UK economy has always been intertwined with Europe, that isn't going to change.

The issue here - to put it as clearly as I possibly can - is that a lot of posters here are repeatedly describing Leave voters as "irrational". But none of you can say anything positive about the EU (fantasies about the ECJ telling the Tories to be nicer aside). That should matter given that the Remain campaign in the referendum was entirely focused on predicting disaster if we left - nobody on the Remain side could make a positive argument for remaining. All you can do when people question the established economic order is either to sneer, or to proclaim that doom will swiftly follow if we deviate from the rule of the Market - There Is No Alternative. It's straight up Thatcherism. And you expect people to listen to you? You are Thatcherites. You're the enemy.

 

[SpackleFrog]

By 'rational argument', what you really mean is 'an argument I will agree with'. Misuse of the word 'rational'.

Your argument was literally "I don't like borders" - you said nothing of why other people shouldn't like borders. Pot kettle black mate. Shall I assume you also don't think Catalonians should have the right to determine their future?

 

[SpackleFrog]

I've read that a couple of times and still don't understand what it means if you could please rephrase I'll have a bash at answering it.
As for citations these are a couple I thought of straightaway, There are plenty more I could find if those annoying people next door would stop bothering me with work.

HR news, jobs & blogs | Human resources jobs, news & events - People Management
R (Secretary of State for the Home Department) v Immigration Appeal Tribunal and Surinder Singh - Wikipedia

A speculative story from a HR magazine (why are you reading that I wonder?) and a case from 25 years ago?

Slow clap.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

That should matter given that the Remain campaign in the referendum was entirely focused on predicting disaster if we left - nobody on the Remain side could make a positive argument for remaining.

Had Remain had half a brain they would have published a positive from the EU; calls + data roaming being the same cost on the Costas as in the Home Counties. Drumming that fact home alone would have probably swung it. But they chose to make crass and vulgar hand gestures at the thickos whilst going up the Thames instead.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Had Remain had half a brain they would have published a positive from the EU; calls + data roaming being the same cost on the Costas as in the Home Counties. Drumming that fact home alone would have probably swung it. But they chose to make crass and vulgar hand gestures at the thickos whilst going up the Thames instead.

I'm not sure cheap calls in the EU would have had quite the impact your suggesting - and the fact that's the best go to I think proves my point

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I'm not sure cheap calls in the EU would have had quite the impact your suggesting - and the fact that's the best go to I think proves my point

It is the best thing I can think of. And I reckon enough people have had bad phone bills coming back from holidays to have swung it, my brother and sister-in-law two years running came back with over £1000 run up by their son, (who now does not have a smart phone!), they voted leave and may well have voted remain on this alone...

 

[Winot]

As for the intertwined thing - the UK economy has always been intertwined with Europe, that isn't going to change.

Are you really arguing that the UK’s trade with the EU isn’t going to change post-Brexit? You sound like David Davis.

 

[BemusedbyLife]

A speculative story from a HR magazine (why are you reading that I wonder?) and a case from 25 years ago?

Slow clap.

Is there something wrong with a job in HR? I don't but I wasn't aware there was anything criminal about it.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Is there something wrong with a job in HR? I don't but I wasn't aware there was anything criminal about it.

Yeah, if you work in HR you spend your days justifying pay "restraint", redundancies and increased workload. Not unlike the EU I suppose... So yeah, there is something wrong with having a job in HR.

 

[Pickman's model]

Is there something wrong with a job in HR? I don't but I wasn't aware there was anything criminal about it.

yeh everyone i've ever met who worked in hr was a smug wanker.

 

[Pickman's model]

A speculative story from a HR magazine (why are you reading that I wonder?) and a case from 25 years ago?

Slow clap.

i'd read it on the basis know thine enemy

 

[SpackleFrog]

Are you really arguing that the UK’s trade with the EU isn’t going to change post-Brexit? You sound like David Davis.

No, I'm not saying it's not going to change, just that the no deal/WTO scenario isn't realistic. What you don't seem to understand is the politics of this - the EU is hardballing in an attempt to at least keep Britain in the single market and the Tories are posturing that they can pick and choose which bits they stay in. Neither side is accurately reflecting what will happen, but that isn't what it's about - exit isn't until 2019 and we'll likely have an election before then so it's irrelevant.