Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Pickman's model]

Are you the moderator of this site?
That my viewpoint is treated with distain by many here, seem to be not much different from the variety of reactions to the viewpoint of others.
I have not seen similar 'take it up with the man' advice issued to others.
Or is it an unspoken standing site rule to always contact the authorities rather than posting a viewpoint here?

i am not a moderator. i don't need to be a moderator of this site to see your concerns are treated with disdain. i am simply offering you an avenue by which to channel them to a more appropriate person's attention.

 

[Pickman's model]

If everyone knew about the bringing back only 200 fags and 1Lt of vodka then we wouldn't be where we are today.

If you ask me.

looking forward to doing booze and fags run over the border in 2019

 

[philosophical]

i am not a moderator. i don't need to be a moderator of this site to see your concerns are treated with disdain. i am simply offering you an avenue by which to channel them to a more appropriate person's attention.

Thanks for the offer, and there's me thinking you were just being snide.

 

[Pickman's model]

Thanks for the offer, and there's me thinking you were just being snide.

i bet you think everyone who goes out of their way to help you is just being snide.

no one here can take your concerns into account and use them to change inform policy. theresa may may.

 

[kebabking]

Yes I get that. Personal checks and controls (are supposed to) exist elsewhere to try to catch people out.
I am aware of the detention centres and forced deportations that are the end result of formal and random checking.
Such stuff requires resources, and there is the casual off grid sort of economy out there that people gravitate to.
The notion of taking back control of the borders is not particularly in operation of those personal 'borders' can be almost anywhere.
In my example above, notwithstanding similar homeland infrastructures in Norway and Sweden, they still feel the need to do hundreds of thousands of vehicle checks per year on their land border.
In the sensitive circumstances in Ireland that could become troublesome, let alone the provisions of the Belfast Agreement.

I'm interested in - very roughly - what number of people from within the EU you think will cross into NI so they can work/live in the grey economy, knowing that they will have great difficulty getting into mainland UK?

I'm also interested in what kind of number - very roughly - of people from outside the EU who you think will cross the Med or the Balkans, make their way through Italy, France, cross the channel to Ireland, then go over the border to NI so they can live and work in the grey/black economy?

Why do you think NI will be such a popular destination for aspiring migrants?

 

[skyscraper101]

For the crack?

 

[philosophical]

I'm interested in - very roughly - what number of people from within the EU you think will cross into NI so they can work/live in the grey economy, knowing that they will have great difficulty getting into mainland UK?

I'm also interested in what kind of number - very roughly - of people from outside the EU who you think will cross the Med or the Balkans, make their way through Italy, France, cross the channel to Ireland, then go over the border to NI so they can live and work in the grey/black economy?

Why do you think NI will be such a popular destination for aspiring migrants?

Once in Northern Ireland you're in the UK.
Given the effort people have made to migrate to a variety of places it is not unreasonable to assume that people will get in to the UK via the Irish border, how many I don't know.

 

[Pickman's model]

Once in Northern Ireland you're in the UK.

and the locals let you know...

 

[Poi E]

Provo and loyalist set aside differences and come together for the sake of human trafficking.

 

[Pickman's model]

Provo and loyalist set aside differences and come together for the sake of human trafficking.

Not sure that's the road in 'on the one road'

 

[kebabking]

Once in Northern Ireland you're in the UK.
Given the effort people have made to migrate to a variety of places it is not unreasonable to assume that people will get in to the UK via the Irish border, how many I don't know.

Except, or course, that it's pretty difficult to get from NI to GB without travel documents, and NI isn't high on the list of places migrants coming from the ME and North and Sub-Saharan Africa want to go to.

So, again, why do you think numbers that Brexiteers would get excited about will choose to go to NI, particularly when it means travelling through several EU countries to get there?

 

[kabbes]

Once in Northern Ireland you're in the UK.
Given the effort people have made to migrate to a variety of places it is not unreasonable to assume that people will get in to the UK via the Irish border, how many I don't know.

Still misunderstanding what is meant by “freedom of movement”, I see.



What is so great about “getting in” to the U.K. when you can do nothing once you get there?

 

[philosophical]

What would be the number to get excited about? One? One million?

 

[kebabking]

What would be the number to get excited about? One? One million?

Probably somewhere between the two, yes...

 

[MickiQ]

Once in Northern Ireland you're in the UK.
Given the effort people have made to migrate to a variety of places it is not unreasonable to assume that people will get in to the UK via the Irish border, how many I don't know.

Probably not many but if you're the kind of person with the smarts and the get up and go to sneak yourself from sub-Saharan Africa/Middle East via Ireland into NI and then into the UK you're probably actually the kind of person we might want.

 

[Poi E]

Anyway, the border will go down the Irish sea, right? Saves time come reunification.

 

[DexterTCN]

Anyway, the border will go down the Irish sea, right? Saves time come reunification.

DUP have entirely ruled that out and the tories need them.

A snap election might fix that problem.

 

[Poi E]

DUP won't bring down May.

 

[DexterTCN]

DUP won't bring down May.

No they would not, it would destroy their influence.

Other tories would though...and if they can bring down May and get rid of the DUP's influence at the same time with a majority of seats?

 

[Poi E]

If they give a shit about NI. Which they don't. Nothing but a liability to the Union (unlike Scotland.)

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Getting in to Ireland from the Schengen area is as hard as getting in to the UK. So why would a migrant place an extra obstacle in their way if having made it to the Schengen zone if they wanted to get to the UK? Non starter.

 

[Combustible]

Once in Northern Ireland you're in the UK.
Given the effort people have made to migrate to a variety of places it is not unreasonable to assume that people will get in to the UK via the Irish border, how many I don't know.

But there is nothing stopping them doing that at the moment, Brexit doesn't make it any more likely that people will sneak in via NI.

 

[philosophical]

But there is nothing stopping them doing that at the moment, Brexit doesn't make it any more likely that people will sneak in via NI.

I agree with this, however one apparent aim of brexit was to 'take back control' of the borders. It (sneaking in) will remain just as likely, but with the added frisson of brexiters showing somehow that control has been taken back, and failing most likely, but pissing off a lot of people as they try to do so.

 

[kabbes]

“Take back control” doesn’t mean what you think it means. For the millionth time.

 

[Pickman's model]

Getting in to Ireland from the Schengen area is as hard as getting in to the UK. So why would a migrant place an extra obstacle in their way if having made it to the Schengen zone if they wanted to get to the UK? Non starter.

our generous benefits. they're all after our generous benefits.

 

[Pickman's model]

DUP won't bring down May.

yeh they're bought and they'll stay bought.

 

[philosophical]

“Take back control” doesn’t mean what you think it means. For the millionth time.

Taking back control means not having control?
Is that what you're getting at?
Maybe it is a concept with as many meanings and interpretations as brexit itself.

 

[kabbes]

Taking back control means not having control?
Is that what you're getting at?
Maybe it is a concept with as many meanings and interpretations as brexit itself.

It means not having freedom of movement. Do you understand yet what “freedom of movement” actually means? Or do you still think it means being able to sneak into a country and have no rights or ability to work legally?

 

[philosophical]

Freedom of movement, or as I like to think of it, no restrictions on movement is a good thing in my view.
Taking back control is not exactly the same thing, to me it suggests checks and monitoring.

 

[kabbes]

Freedom of movement, or as I like to think of it, no restrictions on movement

These aren’t synonymous either. Freedom of movement still comes with restrictions.

“Freedom of movement” is a defined thing. At least know what you’re fighting for.

Taking back control is not exactly the same thing, to me it suggests checks and monitoring.

It’s not, though, about worrying about an inconsequential flow of people who are subsequently restricted to the grey economy.

And besides, this “taking back control” thing only exists in your imagination, which is exactly why it’s so ill-defined. The rest of the population has been discussing freedom of movement — you know, the actual thing the EU insists on — not “taking back control”.