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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?

  • Yes - A fully independant Britain making its own way in the world (apart from scotland).

    Votes: 66 18.2%

  • A Semi-Detached Norway type deal

    Votes: 111 30.7%

  • No - 2nd referendum and/or face saving fudge to let us slink back in feeling a bit fucking stupid

    Votes: 185 51.1%
  • Total voters
    362
philosophical said:
I am suggesting that there will be unstructured chaos, and a vacuum to be filled by who knows what as yet unknown horrors.
Maybe the ultra right wing will muscle in to try to sort it, or violent nationalists will exploit the situation. I certainly don't see the outcome as all pink and fluffy.
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I can imagine food shortages/price-hikes leading to unrest, but I can't see that large numbers of Leave voters would be too bothered about the NI/RoI border issue.
 
danny la rouge said:
Ah, I thought for a moment you were suggesting "what if they called a Brexit and nobody came?"

Tell me more about this "unstructured chaos". Are you suggesting there will be no agreed border? What?
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Yes I am suggesting there will be no agreed border. of course I might be wrong, but I am struggling to envisage what form such an agreement would take. Judging by the past two plus years I think no agreed border is a very likely situation.
 
philosophical said:
Yes I am suggesting there will be no agreed border. of course I might be wrong, but I am struggling to envisage what form such an agreement would take. Judging by the past two plus years I think no agreed border is a very likely situation.
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I'm sorry, I'm still not seeing how the ultra right will capitalise on disagreement over the Irish border.
 
danny la rouge said:
I think you're overstating the type of cock up that'll ensue. It'll be boring, unfathomable and soporific rather than polarising.
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Your guess is as good as mine I suppose. However a lot of my life had the spectre of and reality of very nasty terrorism emanating from Ireland, some of it very close to home indeed.
I would not want a return to that kind of stuff because of a renewed schism being created by brexit on the island of Ireland. For better or worse, both countries having the Belfast agreement, and both countries sharing the common procedures of the EU (and I am not saying here that the EU is in any way a perfect institution) has led to an extended period of peace which at one time in my teens, twenties, thirties and forties I didn't think would come about.
Maybe it will be a Whisky Galore Ealing Comedy type of scenario that will happen in Ireland, but as I have said, given my experience of the past, I have my doubts about that.
 
philosophical said:
Your guess is as good as mine I suppose. However a lot of my life had the spectre of and reality of very nasty terrorism emanating from Ireland, some of it very close to home indeed.
I would not want a return to that kind of stuff because of a renewed schism being created by brexit on the island of Ireland. For better or worse, both countries having the Belfast agreement, and both countries sharing the common procedures of the EU (and I am not saying here that the EU is in any way a perfect institution) has led to an extended period of peace which at one time in my teens, twenties, thirties and forties I didn't think would come about.
Maybe it will be a Whisky Galore Ealing Comedy type of scenario that will happen in Ireland, but as I have said, given my experience of the past, I have my doubts about that.
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So you've revised your prediction from the rise of the ultra right in the UK to the reignition of the Troubles in Northern Ireland?
 
FWIW and IMO, I think food prices will be the main thing that causes whatever street-level trouble that comes along over Brexit. UK / Eire border issue maybe in a few streets in Belfast, but nobody else cares, not enough to riot over it.

Hunger, shortages, empty shelves and black marketeers though? Shit yeah there'll be trouble if things go that way.
 
I think the noises now suggest there will be a dea. It will be a shit one, but the government has deliberately been giving out ‘prepare for No Deal’ messages so that people will be relieved with any deal at all. The government will find a few things that they will spin in a way to please Brexiteers and hush up all the other stuff they know those voters will never bother to look up. If negatives are mentioned to the Leavers, they will stick their fingers in their ears and go ‘Lalalala! We don’t care as long as we’ve left the EU!’
 
Cloo said:
I think the noises now suggest there will be a dea. It will be a shit one, but the government has deliberately been giving out ‘prepare for No Deal’ messages so that people will be relieved with any deal at all. The government will find a few things that they will spin in a way to please Brexiteers and hush up all the other stuff they know those voters will never bother to look up. If negatives are mentioned to the Leavers, they will stick their fingers in their ears and go ‘Lalalala! We don’t care as long as we’ve left the EU!’
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I think you may be right, it looks like the Emperors New Clothes option, which tons of people being expected to operate some kind of Orwellian doublethink.
 
Pickman's model said:
the day after tomorrow is thursday, so perhaps SpackleFrog prescient rather than tardy
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Give me a break, its not like I haven't got enough on my plate as it is, let alone dealing with the Thursday's . Like fuck am I going to cave in to impatient Tuesday's in search of instant gratification

SpackleFrog said:
Why would it lead to the collapse of European logistics? Perhaps it is complicated - please try me. The article you linked to made no attempt to explain the point, so would be grateful if you can. Not asking if you think there should be an A50 extension, just asking you to explain your claim re France, Germany and services.
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Its the cabotage problem, which as late as last month wasn't on anybodies radar. Which was a bit surprising, its an obscure word BUT vital, in the end put it down to lack of civil service expertise and poor interact-action with industry -talking to managers that manage manager's rather than the managers that actually manage getting shit done. Cabotage is the verb for allowing a person or company to run a transport company - be it James Onedine with his fleet of tall ships, Eddie Stobart's haulage fleet or Freddie Laker's fleet of aircraft (other more current examples it equally applies).

Cabotage WITHIN the Single Market means the transport in question can charge for transporting a load of people/freight/mail to say Madrid and then pick up more freight/people/mail and carry on to say Marsaille and drop off there. NO DEAL BREXIT, or a DEAL that does n't cover cabotage. And that stops .....You'd be able to pick up a return load from Spain and bring it back to UK, but not the onward leg to say France and beyond....

The unenlightened will probably think ho ho that's the UK shooting itself in the foot D'oh. But it would equally be the EU. The UK transport and logistic fleets are not insignificant, and their withdrawal from the EU has to be managed carefully, there certainly ISN'T the spare capacity to absorb it readily - its not just log jams at Dover Calais - the Berlin Heathrow flight may well have turned up at Berlin from Athens - so thats non UK bound passengers and freight stuck at Athens airport because of a change to cabotage.

As Chris Grayling found with trains, retimetabling ain't easy, getting every transport company to do it in under 200 days from a standing start is completely unrealistic - hence the need for an extension. Do your own digging on Merkel and May's Chequers deal, from a German perspective, that the French one is not quite the same ....a gut reaction to the nice couple I met on Hanwell locks a couple of weeks back who thought I should have a shave.
 
DexterTCN said:
It means the UK is going to get fucked by the French after brexit.

"Sure we will help you with some trade (or more likely border charges and Calais)...but you have to understand, it will be quite difficult. You may have to pay a little more, yes?"
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How would the French do that? They can't negotiate trade terms unilaterally - whatever terms of trade are established between Britain and the EU will be the terms of trade between Britain and France.

And how does this answer my question? I'm asking what it is specifically that the papers say May is asking for that the French do not want to agree to?
 
SpackleFrog said:
How would the French do that? They can't negotiate trade terms unilaterally - whatever terms of trade are established between Britain and the EU will be the terms of trade between Britain and France.

And how does this answer my question? I'm asking what it is specifically that the papers say May is asking for that the French do not want to agree to?
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I think it more about the French wanting the Germans to wind their necks in a bit
 
gosub said:
Do your own digging on Merkel and May's Chequers deal, from a German perspective, that the French one is not quite the same ....a gut reaction to the nice couple I met on Hanwell locks a couple of weeks back who thought I should have a shave.
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Cannot make head or tail of this. Are you saying that your confident assertion that the Chequers deal is acceptable to Merkel but not to Macron because it "guarantees German hegemony" is actually just what some couple you met said and you decided to repeat it here?

gosub said:
Emmanuel Macron rejects Theresa May's plea for help to rescue her Brexit plan


As I understood it the 'Chequers deal' was hammered out between Number 10 and Merkel, then presented to everyone else Cabinet,... Businesses... the EU.. as a fait a complete. Why should Macron prop it up? It guarantees German hegemony.
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My understanding of what went down at Chequers was, 'ignore all the stuff the Brexit dept has come up with its a red herring, this of what we at Number 10, having talked it through with Berlin have come up with, but it can't be changed without upsetting Mrs Merkel". Got rather a lot to do at mo so not going to go back and redig up[ my sourcing on that (but its out there and I'm comfortable that's the way it went down.......And you don't think the Germans need to wind their neck in a bit?
 
gosub said:
My understanding of what went down at Chequers was, 'ignore all the stuff the Brexit dept has come up with its a red herring, this of what we at Number 10, having talked it through with Berlin have come up with, but it can't be changed without upsetting Mrs Merkel". Got rather a lot to do at mo so not going to go back and redig up[ my sourcing on that (but its out there and I'm comfortable that's the way it went down.......And you don't think the Germans need to wind their neck in a bit?
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You don't need to go back to any sources, you just need to tell me what it is in this deal that is acceptable to Germany but not to France. Or just admit you don't really know and we can leave it there.

What do you mean the Germans need to "wind their neck in a bit"?

There are obviously tensions between France and Germnay over the direction of the EU and always have been, we know this, the question is how this is manifesting itself in relation to Brexit, if at all.
 
SpackleFrog said:
You don't need to go back to any sources, you just need to tell me what it is in this deal that is acceptable to Germany but not to France. Or just admit you don't really know and we can leave it there.

What do you mean the Germans need to "wind their neck in a bit"?

There are obviously tensions between France and Germnay over the direction of the EU and always have been, we know this, the question is how this is manifesting itself in relation to Brexit, if at all.
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HOW IS IT EVER GOING TO BE IN FRANCE'S INTERESTS FOR GERMANY TO DICTATE TERMS? Be it over Brexit or sorting out the shit that needs doing over the EUrozone
 
gosub said:
HOW IS IT EVER GOING TO BE IN FRANCE'S INTERESTS FOR GERMANY TO DICTATE TERMS? Be it over Brexit or sorting out the shit that needs doing over the EUrozone
Click to expand...

What specifically about the Chequers deal is in Germany's favour but against the interests of France?
 
Your main problem here is the mistaken belief that nearly everyone on here blindly agrees with everything that is published in the Graun. It, like every major news outlet has an agenda which in it's case could be broadly categorised as establishment liberal centrist. They run some good articles but many that are imo not. So yeah it has an agenda just not as blatantly dogwhistle as the Express.
 
Last edited:
I noticed that on Newsnight last night Rees Mogg said the Irish Border can be managed remotely.
No details provided by him.
I believe he is wrong.
 
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