Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[brogdale]

You're absolutely right, they are completely split on the issue between the Remain and Leave camps. But my comment was directed at those on these boards who regularly insist that they know the 'secret Brexit agenda' of Remain Tories like May. I'm just sick of reading comments like "This is secretly what they wanted all along" etc.

Tend to agree with that; I don't think that the tory-Remain position was essentially 'secret' at all. IMO they were motivated first & foremost by party political considerations and (arrogantly) convinced that they'd prevail. How they've subsequently squared the Brexit reality with their own 'pro-business' priorities have perhaps been more nuanced/variable, but they appear to have in common an enduring belief in the positive role that the political superstructure can play for the base.
The fundamentalist Brexiteers, on the other hand, seem to be comfortable with 'shock doctrine' scenarios that will quickly see the demise of the remaining welfare state. Rather than seeing the party of capital needing to be pro-business, they seem content with (oligarchic) capital being pro-tory.

 

[SpackleFrog]

May has always wanted out of the ECHR, and has publicly said so enough times in her history. You're correct that she'd rather not have brexit, but since that isn't going to happen she's at least going to try and get what she wants out of it. I don't recall having any visions of torture or death camps - morning drinking again, perhaps? Or just your usual pure bullshit hyperbole?

Bit rude. Who are you anyway? Morning drinking?

Yes, but there's also nothing on Earth that Theresa May hates more, as it stops her going for the full fascist treatment that she'd like to subject the country to.

I took your "full fascist treatment" comment at face value - are you sure you're not the one engaging in hyperbole?

 

[not-bono-ever]

It all going to be ok though- we are marching back to Africa with 4bn ( in vouchers and money off tokens) to woo the continent. But not the top bit where is a bit rough. And maybe not the horn either. Possibly giving DRC a body swerve as well. But don’t worry / we may not be hoying hundreds of billions around like the Chinese but it will be better quality.

I am sure we will be welcomed with open arms

PM seeks new jobs partnership with Africa

 

[eatmorecheese]

It all going to be ok though- we are marching back to Africa with 4bn ( in vouchers and money off tokens) to woo the continent. But not the top bit where is a bit rough. And maybe not the horn either. Possibly giving DRC a body swerve as well. But don’t worry / we may not be hoying hundreds of billions around like the Chinese but it will be better quality.

I am sure we will be welcomed with open arms

PM seeks new jobs partnership with Africa

It's all supreme bollocks, really. Asia-Pacific is the pivot Africa leans towards, rather than the UK's loose change. As well she knows.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

She's gonna give a wedge of cash to Nigeria, which will be a Brexit boost for Mercedes Benz.

 

[Dogsauce]

She's gonna give a wedge of cash to Nigeria, which will be a Brexit boost for Mercedes Benz.

She had one of those emails, didn’t she? The four billion is just a fee to release the THREE HUNDRED AND SIXTY SEVEN BILLION DOLLARS that some kidnapped prince has trapped in a bank account. It’ll certainly help sort the deficit out.

 

[DexterTCN]

So the only deal announced so far is giving away £4 billion in aid?

If I was a cynic I'd be worried that people in the background are feathering nests.

 

[Pickman's model]

It all going to be ok though- we are marching back to Africa with 4bn ( in vouchers and money off tokens) to woo the continent. But not the top bit where is a bit rough. And maybe not the horn either. Possibly giving DRC a body swerve as well. But don’t worry / we may not be hoying hundreds of billions around like the Chinese but it will be better quality.

I am sure we will be welcomed with open arms

PM seeks new jobs partnership with Africa

The bbc hate theresa may. You can tell as any reasonable broadcaster would have suppressed the video of her dancing

 

[not-bono-ever]

she looked fuckin terrible on CH4 news tonight- theres not much sleep going on on the May household and it aint all night lovemakin' that keep them awake

 

[xarmian]

If this was always her overriding pre-occupation and endgame you'd think the last thing she would have done then is to campaign to stay in the EU wouldn't you? Yet she did.

I don't understand this part of the narrative about May. Desperate Remainers seem to push it a lot. She campaigned for Remain for the same reason Johnson campaigned for Leave. They didn't expect Leave to win. They were lining themselves up for the leadership knowing that Cameron was going to resign in 2018. She was already popular with the right for her anti-immigration stuff. Go home vans, hostile environment, deporting foreign students, dissing the ECtHR. She was courting the sensibles. Johnson was doing the opposite. The result turned everything upside down for both of them.

 

[isvicthere?]

The bbc hate theresa may. You can tell as any reasonable broadcaster would have suppressed the video of her dancing

The dancing was not even remotely as awkward as the curtsey.

 

[SpackleFrog]

she looked fuckin terrible on CH4 news tonight- theres not much sleep going on on the May household and it aint all night lovemakin' that keep them awake

Thanks for that image

 

[SpackleFrog]

Every paper seems to have had something along the lines of this story on Macron wanting a close relationship with Britain but not at expense of EU integrity (example: Macron: EU more important than relationship with post-Brexit Britain). What does this actually mean? Is there something which May is asking for that France doesn't want?

Or is it just filler to make it seem like stuff is happening?

 

[Pickman's model]

Thanks for that image

have some mind bleach

 

[Ranbay]

 

[DexterTCN]

Every paper seems to have had something along the lines of this story on Macron wanting a close relationship with Britain but not at expense of EU integrity (example: Macron: EU more important than relationship with post-Brexit Britain). What does this actually mean? Is there something which May is asking for that France doesn't want?

Or is it just filler to make it seem like stuff is happening?

It means the UK is going to get fucked by the French after brexit.

"Sure we will help you with some trade (or more likely border charges and Calais)...but you have to understand, it will be quite difficult. You may have to pay a little more, yes?"

 

[DexterTCN]

 

[gentlegreen]

Gove managed to shoe-horn a bit of pro-brexit propaganda into this story about the guy who just swam 330 miles in the Channel :-

Michael Gove: Lewis Pugh 'has shown inspirational leadership and grit'

And when we leave the European Union, we take back control of our seas.

As an independent coastal state we can create a profitable fishing industry that is also sustainable, and minimise its impact on non-commercial species.

Our annual reckoning of the health of fish stocks means we can intervene if they are struggling.

 

[not-bono-ever]

We have no history of taking adult responsibility for our own fisheries, so give will be breaking new ground if this is to work out. More likely is the final eradication of white fish mass within a decade.

Would love to be proved wrong

 

[Pickman's model]

We have no history of taking adult responsibility for our own fisheries, so give will be breaking new ground if this is to work out. More likely is the final eradication of white fish mass within a decade.

Would love to be proved wrong

maybe one day they'll fish michael gove out of the sea

 

[danny la rouge]

So what's your suggested alternative?

And how would it work as a precident? Say for a future Scotland that votes narrowly for independence but has a grumbling large minority clamouring to rerun the referendum while independence is being negotiated?

The Leave vote won. Like it or not, that's what happening.

 

[Poi E]

maybe one day they'll fish michael gove out of the sea

I fear he, the cockroaches and the jellyfish shall see the end of days together. Good company, really.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

maybe one day they'll fish michael gove out of the sea

at toxic marine pollution

 

[philosophical]

So what's your suggested alternative?

And how would it work as a precident? Say for a future Scotland that votes narrowly for independence but has a grumbling large minority clamouring to rerun the referendum while independence is being negotiated?

The Leave vote won. Like it or not, that's what happening.

The leave vote certainly won.
However to say that's what's happening is standing on flimsy ground in my opinion.
Leave have (for example) no ideas for taking back control of the borders that they have shared, and I suspect when those ideas are eventually shared many will think the cost is way too high, unaffordable even.

 

[danny la rouge]

The leave vote certainly won.
However to say that's what's happening is standing on flimsy ground in my opinion.
Leave have (for example) no ideas for taking back control of the borders that they have shared, and I suspect when those ideas are eventually shared many will think the cost is way too high, unaffordable even.

"Leave" don't exist any more. The process is being presided over by the government. I'd agree that the government is in a shambles on the borders issue. But where are you getting the evidence that people will reverse their view on Brexit based on the eventual costs? And (separate step) that they'd favour a second referendum because of that? It sounds like wishful thinking to me.

 

[Pickman's model]

"Leave" don't exist any more. The process is being presided over by the government. I'd agree that the government is in a shambles on the borders issue. But where are you getting the evidence that people will reverse their view on Brexit based on the eventual costs? And (separate step) that they'd favour a second referendum because of that? It sounds like wishful thinking to me.

Magical thinking

 

[philosophical]

"Leave" don't exist any more. The process is being presided over by the government. I'd agree that the government is in a shambles on the borders issue. But where are you getting the evidence that people will reverse their view on Brexit based on the eventual costs? And (separate step) that they'd favour a second referendum because of that? It sounds like wishful thinking to me.

I have no evidence to that effect whatsoever.
I am trying to use some kind of reason (which I suspect many here will quickly try to shoot down).
My reasoning is that if the UK leaves the EU there is a separation.
Something will be in place to indicate that separation, for the sake of ease I will call it a border.
If there isn't a border, then that suggests to me that leaving hasn't happened...certainly in what I understand to be 'taking back control of the borders after brexit' terms.
So if there is a border, on the island of Ireland, the costs could be incurred reputationally because the UK goes back on it's international treaty.
Socially because (as the PSNI has warned) there could be a return to the kind of violence of the past.
Financially, because the border is some 400km long, and patrolling, monitoring, reacting to events on such a border will cost a lot of money and effort.
At no time have I said there ought to be another referendum, and I don't even think people will reverse their view on brexit either, but I think that when the border bill is presented people will simply not be prepared to pay it whatever their vote was.
Unless you're Jacob Rees Mogg I suppose, who seems to be favouring the heavily militarised option presumably paid for out of taxes.

 

[danny la rouge]

At no time have I said there ought to be another referendum, and I don't even think people will reverse their view on brexit either, but I think that when the border bill is presented people will simply not be prepared to pay it whatever their vote was.

And then what? What are you suggesting?

 

[philosophical]

And then what? What are you suggesting?

I am suggesting that there will be unstructured chaos, and a vacuum to be filled by who knows what as yet unknown horrors.
Maybe the ultra right wing will muscle in to try to sort it, or violent nationalists will exploit the situation. I certainly don't see the outcome as all pink and fluffy.

 

[danny la rouge]

I am suggesting that there will be unstructured chaos, and a vacuum to be filled by who knows what as yet unknown horrors.
Maybe the ultra right wing will muscle in to try to sort it, or violent nationalists will exploit the situation. I certainly don't see the outcome as all pink and fluffy.

Ah, I thought for a moment you were suggesting "what if they called a Brexit and nobody came?"

Tell me more about this "unstructured chaos". Are you suggesting there will be no agreed border? What?