Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Silas Loom]

Don't want a 'Westminster' solution ta very much

What do you suggest instead?

 

[SpackleFrog]

I certainly know more about it now than I did in June 2016, because - very slowly - mainstream bloggers and commentators are beginning to understand the issues, one by one, and write about them in words I can understand.

Do you know any truth that doesn't come from the mainstream?

What do you suggest instead?

I think it's myopic and unscientific to believe that only elite actors can influence any of this - but we'll agree to disagree there cos your question at the end is very important and perhaps there we agree.

I don't think there's any point seeing Brexit seperately from austerity - anger at the Tories and at whats happening drove the vote to leave in large part (as well as some racism and nationalism before anyone says it, that too) and both the Tories and the various other right wing ruling parties in Europe are the enemy. How we can gain control of the process is I agree an excellent question, and I think the answer lies in the escalating strike action taking place, as well as Corbyn's Labour Party. Without the TUC or anyone on the organised left really making it happen (in fact the TUC are doing their best to put their foot on the brakes) workplace disputes are erupting everywhere and all it would take to get rid of the Tories would be to co-ordinate these strikes and disputes. Add in the community campaigns that are developing around the NHS, or housing (particularly after Grenfell) and you don't need to look for an army, it's there in front of us. This government is so weak that if we got our act together we could quite literally blow them away.

Then there's the question of what replaces them - at the moment we have the remnants of an old social democratic party led by a nice social democratic type but infested with neoliberals who are using the EU as their main point of attack against the Left. The main strength of Corbynism isn't Corbyn but the hundreds of thousands of new Labour members. If, alongside building a movement to get rid of the Tories, we had a serious campaign to democratise the Labour Party and empower those hundreds of thousands of new members to exercise control over the Party, then we would have an organisation capable of delivering the future we want - in or out of the EU.

I voted leave, you voted remain, I would vote leave a thousand times over again if I could - but I never thought there was anything in our future but misery unless we get rid of the Tories. The EU ref has severely weakened them but they're still in power and that cannot be allowed to continue. I agree completely that we can't just wait for them to fuck it up - everyone in the movement should be clear that we have to force them out. Otherwise they'll hang on like grim death and yeah, they'll be in charge of post-Brexit Britain. In or out of the EU, the key task is getting rid of the Tories and building an organisation that will act as a political voice for the working class.

 

[sleaterkinney]

It is accurate -

 

[mojo pixy]

Cheese on beans or beans on ch---

Hold on, is that Emmenthal??

 

[Raheem]

It is accurate -

I bet there's at least one group of oddbods who claim to be the rightful government of Czechoslovakia. If not, I propose we start one.

 

[binka]

I know Urban doesn't care what evil businessmen say, but the majority of Tory MPs really do. So I don't see a Tory majority, or even a Cabinet majority, for obfuscation, and I can't believe that things will carry on like this, even if the Withdrawal Bill is delayed to prevent any opportunities for rebellion.

I do agree with this. The company I work for does some trade with Europe and already we're talking about what are we going to do. We don't just buy and sell on a whim, we have agreements to supply for 6/12 months and have relationships with suppliers and customers that have been ongoing for years. If we don't know what our costs are going to be we can't plan ahead. We're just small fry though so I imagine the people who have the real money will make sure it doesn't carry on like this

 

[Nine Bob Note]

I bet there's at least one group of oddbods who claim to be the rightful government of Czechoslovakia. If not, I propose we start one.

I did a quick search to see if there was anyone still claiming to be king, but, alas, no.

 

[kabbes]

I do agree with this. The company I work for does some trade with Europe and already we're talking about what are we going to do. We don't just buy and sell on a whim, we have agreements to supply for 6/12 months and have relationships with suppliers and customers that have been ongoing for years. If we don't know what our costs are going to be we can't plan ahead. We're just small fry though so I imagine the people who have the real money will make sure it doesn't carry on like this

The people with real money are coping with it by doing thing like setting up EU sister companies and transferring their EU trade to those companies. Taking some of their business out of the UK, in other words. This may or may not be a price worth paying in order to gain political freedom from the EU block (depending on your political philosophy) but I don’t think we should pretend it isn’t happening.

 

[Raheem]

I did a quick search to see if there was anyone still claiming to be king, but, alas, no.

Brilliant! Bagsy minister for hats and headwear.

 

[Yossarian]

I did a quick search to see if there was anyone still claiming to be king, but, alas, no.

Karl von Habsburg might come closest, according to this list of current pretenders, which does not include Chrissie Hynde.

List of current pretenders - Wikipedia

 

[binka]

The people with real money are coping with it by doing thing like setting up EU sister companies and transferring their EU trade to those companies. Taking some of their business out of the UK, in other words. This may or may not be a price worth paying in order to gain political freedom from the EU block (depending on your political philosophy) but I don’t think we should pretend it isn’t happening.

Oh I don't doubt that but it isn't an option for every large company. High street retailers for example will continue to need premises, staff and stock in the UK.

 

[gosub]

We got the marker in before ship tax. [emoji12]

 

[gosub]

Theresa May kickstarts trade talks by accepting £53bn bill

 

[not-bono-ever]

ah well. I am sure we can just print some more billions to cover it.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

ah well. I am sure we can just print some more billions to cover it.

The bill's in euros, note.

Love how they're selling that as a bargain. It's approximately six months of the NHS budget, given that NHS spending seems to be the go-to marker.

 

[not-bono-ever]

we should negotiate the settlement to be in GBP, then trigger a period of super hyper inflation, send a truck full of worthless 10 quid notes across & call it quits.

 

[kabbes]

From February:

Liam Fox dismisses 'absurd' claim that UK will face £50 billion Brussels bill after Brexit

Etc. Remember the days of being told that it was “absurd” that we would pay €40-60bn?

 

[SaskiaJayne]

Paying that much would be the same as staying in the EU 8yrs or more paying usual annual net contribution so the brexiteers would claim it was remain disgused as leave particularly as it may leave a route for a future UK government to rejoin the EU that we had not really left. I would guess most leave voters would see paying that sort of money to keep free trade as much of a betrayal as cancelling brexit.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Paying that much would be the same as staying in the EU 8yrs or more paying usual annual net contribution so the brexiteers would claim it was remain disgused as leave particularly as it may leave a route for a future UK government to rejoin the EU that we had not really left. I would guess most leave voters would see paying that sort of money to keep free trade as much of a betrayal as cancelling brexit.

There's another side to the 'net contributor' story. The UK isn't the only net contributor and isn't the biggest net contributor, and when you visit the net receivers, you see countries that have in many cases come a long way in a short time. The money isn't just pissed away. Nobody seems to want to talk in a generous way about giving to the EU, the long-term benefit of which is a more prosperous Europe (which would result in the net contributors' bills coming down).

 

[Winot]

Paying that much would be the same as staying in the EU 8yrs or more paying usual annual net contribution so the brexiteers would claim it was remain disgused as leave particularly as it may leave a route for a future UK government to rejoin the EU that we had not really left. I would guess most leave voters would see paying that sort of money to keep free trade as much of a betrayal as cancelling brexit.

How much of this notional fee is (1) our contribution to projects we have already agreed to before voting to leave, and how much is (2) the ticket price for continuing to have access to the single market? I can't see how we can be discussing (2) yet.

 

[SaskiaJayne]

The points made in the last 2 posts will be lost on leave voters. Leave politicians will spin it as continuing to pay into the EU for however many years will be no different to remain. Leave politicians mostly seem ok with leaving with a no deal rather than pay a vast amount to leave. While paying as if we stay in for another 2 yrs transition period would be seen as just about an acceptable compromise I can't see any much higher amount being ok.

 

[bemused]

Paying that much would be the same as staying in the EU 8yrs or more paying usual annual net contribution so the brexiteers would claim it was remain disgused as leave particularly as it may leave a route for a future UK government to rejoin the EU that we had not really left. I would guess most leave voters would see paying that sort of money to keep free trade as much of a betrayal as cancelling brexit.

Purely anecdotal, but I don't get the sense that there is any large noisy section of the electorate who care what the deal looks like just as long as it is signed and they have a job after it.

 

[Winot]

The points made in the last 2 posts will be lost on leave voters. Leave politicians will spin it as continuing to pay into the EU for however many years will be no different to remain. Leave politicians mostly seem ok with leaving with a no deal rather than pay a vast amount to leave. While paying as if we stay in for another 2 yrs transition period would be seen as just about an acceptable compromise I can't see any much higher amount being ok.

I think you are probably right, and for that reason I think the rift in the UK caused by this referendum is not going to be healed no matter what the outcome.

I suspect we are going to need an economic boom (with everyone benefitting) for Leavers to happy. And by voting Leave they have reduced the chance of that happening.

 

[DotCommunist]

was there jam coming tomorrow under the eu then? I bet there was. Its always tomorrow.

 

[sealion]

was there jam coming tomorrow under the eu then? I bet there was. Its always tomorrow.

You beat me to it - Look what you could have won

 

[DotCommunist]

You beat me to it - Look what you could have won

schuables towing away the yacht I nearly won while bully shakes his head.

 

[Raheem]

was there jam coming tomorrow under the eu then? I bet there was. Its always tomorrow.

We've still got plenty of jam. It's just slightly more expensive now.

 

[butchersapron]

The lack of economic destruction that remainers predicted would def happen is now key remainers anti-brexit argument.

 

[Winot]

We've still got plenty of jam. It's just slightly more expensive now.

Innovative jam.

 

[Winot]

was there jam coming tomorrow under the eu then? I bet there was. Its always tomorrow.

Nope, but there were less-worse times. And ordinary people weren’t complaining about the EU when the economy was doing better.