Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[littlebabyjesus]

Well, some think that Article 50 can be revoked. But, supposing that is wrong,.

In what way could it be wrong? If all concerned agree it can be revoked, it can be revoked.

 

[Raheem]

Do you think it’s likely that Labour can force an extension to Article 50?

I'm not sure I can see it being necessary. But yes, I think they hypothetically can. More importantly, asserting themselves now will potentially change the Brexit narrative, by making it harder to pretend that no deal is an option.

 

[Raheem]

In what way could it be wrong? If all concerned agree it can be revoked, it can be revoked.

I sort of agree, but I've also spotted an "if" in there. I'm not sure about the technicalities, but I would say a revocation has to be unilateral. If it goes to the Council of Ministers, they are not revoking it (they never triggered it in the first place), they are annulling it.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Agreed. Don’t think that affects the (no) deal with the EU though.

Not directly, no, but a crucial Bill that has trouble passing both Houses has to have a delaying impact, and in turn that must shape the government position wrt exit.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I sort of agree, but I've also spotted an "if" in there. I'm not sure about the technicalities, but I would say a revocation has to be unilateral.

Sure, but the point is that any technicalities can be overcome if there is the will to do it. There is no precedent, and a lot of hot air is spoken by all sides about what may or may not be possible. Politically, I would say that it would be impossible for the rest of the EU to refuse to cancel brexit if the UK were to request such a thing, whatever the rules might say. There have been some rather fanciful ideas posited about various penalties that they would try to impose, but I don't see how any of that would be possible. I'm not saying brexit won't happen. I have my doubts, but I have no idea - nobody does - but I am saying that it could not happen very easily if the UK were to want it not to happen. The rest of the EU doesn't want brexit, after all.

 

[Raheem]

Sure, but the point is that any technicalities can be overcome if there is the will to do it. There is no precedent, and a lot of hot air is spoken by all sides about what may or may not be possible. Politically, I would say that it would be impossible for the rest of the EU to refuse to cancel brexit if the UK were to request such a thing, whatever the rules might say. There have been some rather fanciful ideas posited about various penalties that they would try to impose, but I don't see how any of that would be possible. I'm not saying brexit won't happen. I have my doubts, but I have no idea - nobody does - but I am saying that it could not happen very easily if the UK were to want it not to happen. The rest of the EU doesn't want brexit, after all.

Yes, I agree, except in the scenario where our request is "we want no deal, but please can we do it in a bit?" (which I also don't think will happen).

 

[Wilf]

The pendulum seems to have swung back the past few days as it has become apparent to the EU fuckos that May’s fragility isn’t such a good thing for them, if she was to go and be replaced by that Johnson cunt it would be hard Brexit and that means Merkel & Macron have to tell their voters that they need to cough up a lot more dough.
.

Though...
Jean-Claude Juncker's chief of staff denies May dinner leaks

May of course is truly fucked, in every way. Didn't want Brexit, fucked up over the election, cough cough, bounced around by Johnson et al, no progress in the deal - and her whole Premiership defined by all of this. But then she's stuck with it, can't resign as she then gets the reputation of being the worst PM ever, putting her bruised ego above the national interest. I suspect she truly is tormented. In the words of Grumpycat, GOOD!

 

[Wilf]

This is from Robert Peston, via the guardian's news feed:

The most revealing statement made today was a Tweet by Juncker’s chief of staff, the German lawyer Martin Selmayr, that he and Juncker have “no interest in weakening PM” ...

As it happens I have been told repeatedly and reliably that Merkel in particular regards the prospect of Johnson becoming prime minister, and therefore her counterpart in Brexit talks, with the relish that most of us would feel if presented with a plate of steaming sick.

And the knee-jerk Tweet from Selmayr, who is close to Merkel - when accused by May’s former aide NickTimothy of being the leaker - more or less confirmed that.

This just about allows Johnson's vassals in the tory party to portray May as almost the creature of the EU, clinging on with the support of Junker, Merkel et al. However I still can't see them replacing her in the short term. Just adds to the shit sloshing around the party and further weakens May.

 

[mauvais]

If I was in the unfortunate position of being in charge, here's what I reckon I'd do:

- Get a proposed set of terms, whatever is available quickly, present it as best we'll be offered

- Put it to the nation as a Yes/No vote, where No is ambiguous but in theory means back to the Brexit drawing board rather than explicitly rejecting whole thing

- Repeat Remainers plus greedy Brexiteers surely means it's a No (although we all know how these gambles go)

- Blame everyone else

- Call another election, probably lose but at least lose as the democratic party that tried

- Leave the 'WTF now' to the even more unfortunate replacement

- ???

- Profit

 

[Silas Loom]

If I was in the unfortunate position of being in charge, here's what I reckon I'd do:

- Get a proposed set of terms, whatever is available quickly, present it as best we'll be offered

- Put it to the nation as a Yes/No vote, where No is ambiguous but in theory means back to the Brexit drawing board rather than explicitly rejecting whole thing

- Repeat Remainers plus greedy Brexiteers surely means it's a No (although we all know how these gambles go)

- Blame everyone else

- Call another election, probably lose but at least lose as the democratic party that tried

- Leave the 'WTF now' to the even more unfortunate replacement

- ???

- Profit

Do you mean terms for the eventual relationship, or terms for the interim relationship? Neither are available quickly, except perhaps for Norway+ (EFTA/EEA + comprehensive customs agreement).

 

[mauvais]

Do you mean terms for the eventual relationship, or terms for the interim relationship? Neither are available quickly, except perhaps for Norway+ (EFTA/EEA + comprehensive customs agreement).

Both. It doesn't necessarily have to be final and binding, just a skeleton of a plan within the parameters of the now-possible. Plus some details like a figure for the bill to pay, etc, enough to be able to say 'this needs to be put to the public'.

Plus half the bloody thing is predicated on it being rejected, so as long as that doesn't go wrong, who cares!

 

[BemusedbyLife]

If I was in the unfortunate position of being in charge, here's what I reckon I'd do:

- Get a proposed set of terms, whatever is available quickly, present it as best we'll be offered

- Put it to the nation as a Yes/No vote, where No is ambiguous but in theory means back to the Brexit drawing board rather than explicitly rejecting whole thing

- Repeat Remainers plus greedy Brexiteers surely means it's a No (although we all know how these gambles go)

- Blame everyone else

- Call another election, probably lose but at least lose as the democratic party that tried

- Leave the 'WTF now' to the even more unfortunate replacement

- ???

- Profit

You're David Cameron aren't you?

 

[mauvais]

You're David Cameron aren't you?

I suppose it is pretty much the same plan, but mine's new and improved: instead of presenting an alluring dream that people will unexpectedly vote for, simply offer up a plate of shit and then go home early when noone wants to eat it.

 

[Raheem]

I suppose it is pretty much the same plan, but mine's new and improved: instead of presenting an alluring dream that people will unexpectedly vote for, simply offer up a plate of shit and then go home early when noone wants to eat it.

But, as Cameron found out, one man's plate of shit is what half the country fancies for breakfast. Metaphorically speaking.

 

[Poi E]

Under Cameron we had two referendums, both of the most profound social, economic and political consequence. What a democrat.

 

[pocketscience]

But, as Cameron found out, one man's plate of shit is what half the country fancies for breakfast. Metaphorically speaking.

Funny you say that. I've spent a lot of time in Germany over the last couple of decades and one constant standing joke the Germans like to reel out at every opportunity to us Brits, is the one about the quality of our breakfasts: 'How could you eat such a fatty pile of unhealthy shit?', 'beans for breakfast, you'll be farting all day...', 'musli is so much healthier than than your englisch shit!', 'it's a plate of shit..!' etc.
let's just say (on paper) I had a hard time defending one of my primordial culinary delights.... until that is, I was invited last year to a "sehr deutsch" all inclusive holiday on the Canary Islands (4 stars)
Mornings, in the grand breakfast hall, the displays of healthy shit like diced fruit, musli, endless sorts of continental cheeses and hams, wholemeal bread, figs, grapes, yoghurt, sliced gherkins, ect were being completely ignored by the punters (90% Deutsch). No-one near it.
Right at the back of the hall, in a dark dingy corner, was a 5 meter long frying platter with about a million fried eggs on the go, 5 million rashers of bacon sizzling away next to about 600 litres of baked beans.
In front of said platter was an unruly melee of Germans in white socks and sandals silently barging in and trying their best to push their way to the front (coz queuing isn't part of their culture) to order this masterpiece ... gagging for it they were!

so, metaphorically speaking, this shows how your average European is well accustomed to accept, and even enjoy, the most unsavoury plates of British shit

 

[gosub]

There in lies the rub; nothing beats a British breakfast...... If someone else is cooking it

 

[SpackleFrog]

I suppose it is pretty much the same plan, but mine's new and improved: instead of presenting an alluring dream that people will unexpectedly vote for, simply offer up a plate of shit and then go home early when noone wants to eat it.

I'm glad you've no chance of being in charge then, you sound too much like the Tories.

 

[Nine Bob Note]

There in lies the rub; nothing beats a British breakfast...... If someone else is cooking it

 

[Raheem]

I'm glad you've no chance of being in charge then, you sound too much like the Tories.

Except he has some sort of plan.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Except he has some sort of plan.

A plate of shit is a plate of shit regardless of the level of planning that went into serving it up.

 

[Raheem]

A plate of shit is a plate of shit.

Now who sounds like a Tory?

 

[Crispy]

It's a red white and blue plate of shit

 

[Pickman's model]

Now who sounds like a Tory?

you do

 

[Dr. Furface]

Michael Bloomberg breaks cover and states the bleedin' obvious Michael Bloomberg: Brexit is stupidest thing any country has done besides Trump

But it's not all doom and gloom for everyone, as Arron Banks is set to cash in from a Hollywood film of his book The Bad Boys of Brexit A £60 million film about Brexit is reportedly coming next year — and Nigel Farage wants to play himself

 

[DotCommunist]

the wise old billionaire has spoken

 

[J Ed]

Michael Bloomberg breaks cover and states the bleedin' obvious Michael Bloomberg: Brexit is stupidest thing any country has done besides Trump

Bloomberg argued that “it is really hard to understand why a country that was doing so well wanted to ruin it”

Not for me it wasn't, which is something that he and his fellow travellers don't know about because they aren't in the least bit interested even from a purely narrow, selfish perspective so of course they have no idea why Brexit happened.

I can count the number of die hard remainers who have shown any interest in this question on one hand too. It's because we're stupid, or racist, or were tricked by Russia. Neoliberalism cannot be failed, we can only fail it with our herd-like stupidity. Which is why we are at the food banks, have falling wages in real terms comparable to Greece and are dying off at an increasing rate with a lowered life expectancy.

 

[Dr. Furface]

Not for me it wasn't

And clearly not for millions of others either. But there were many people who pushed for and voted Brexit that were already doing very nicely thank you, who did so for ideological reasons, and many did so in order to cash in on it themselves with scant regard for the millions who'd inevitably lose out - Arron Banks being one such example.

They didn't give a shit about the people using food banks, but they played on people's poor circumstances, fears, hopes and ignorance to sway them into believing that leaving the EU would bring them a brighter tomorrow - based on absolutely no evidence whatsoever. So if you want to talk about people acting out of a 'purely narrow, selfish perspective', there are many more here at home who would be more appropriate for that discussion than Michael Bloomberg.

 

[DotCommunist]

yes thats the 'thickos who believed the NHS bus pledge' stuff again isn't it?

 

[Dr. Furface]

Now you're stereotyping