Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Combustible]

Someone has leaked some of those Brexit impact reports

Surely it hardly requires leaked documents to know that a country which has no trade deal with the EU will have less access to EU markets than countries which have some form of trade deal.

 

[Poi E]

Turns out foreign direct investment in the UK by companies is plummeting. 120 billion surplus in the first half of 2016, 26 billion outflow in the first six months of 2017. Source is a Telegraph article dated 15 October, subject to paywall. Seems rather a lot to disappear.

 

[SaskiaJayne]

On R4 news this morning. UK has offered £18bill & is prepared to go £36bill if they could get it through parliment. EU want about £48bill but France/Germany say nothing less than£60bill obviously fearing anti EU backlash in their own countries if they have to make up shortfall. EU worried that if they push for too much money May could get booted out in favour of Johnson & fears the chaos that could result. £60bill is like staying in EU for about another 8yrs.

Whatever one's feelings leave or remain one has to ask if it is all worth it?

 

[gosub]

Turns out foreign direct investment in the UK by companies is plummeting. 120 billion surplus in the first half of 2016, 26 billion outflow in the first six months of 2017. Source is a Telegraph article dated 15 October, subject to paywall. Seems rather a lot to disappear.

Nope.

British outward investment, was projected to be 120 billion surplus (after years of negative projections), turned out to still be negative.

 

[Poi E]

Nope.

British outward investment, was projected to be 120 billion surplus (after years of negative projections), turned out to still be negative.

Don't follow you. What's the link between UK outward and inward FDI?

 

[gosub]

Don't follow you. What's the link between UK outward and inward FDI?

the actual graph the article was based on: (n.b NET)

someone in the treasury (on the yellow line) thought that the either the rest of the world would stop holding UK assets or UK interests would move to a more international portfolio, but it didn't happen anywhere near as much as projected most likely because the fall in the pound made the UK relative bargains if you were buying from a dollar/euro position.

I'd guess the yellow line was a hangover from Osbourne's doom mongering over a stock market collapse in the event of Brexit (it didn't, it rose). Either that or some pre-election figure massaging.

 

[Poi E]

Is that not how much UK enterprises are investing abroad?

 

[gosub]

Is that not how much UK enterprises are investing abroad?

yes minus how much Foreign enterprises are investing in the UK

 

[SpackleFrog]

Pessimistic version - Labour gets in as the next majority government just as Brexit shit hits the fan. Voters blame economic collapse caused by Brexit on Labour. Tories get back into power again on basis of mantra of 'Labour cannot be trusted with the economy'.

That is pessimism elevated to an art form to be fair.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Surely it hardly requires leaked documents to know that a country which has no trade deal with the EU will have less access to EU markets than countries which have some form of trade deal.

What would be interesting is how he knows that the EU will not be prepared to agree to a deal giving the UK equal trading access with Yemen. Which they might not be like but it's interesting he''s so certain.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

the pm at a tricky conference yesterday -

 

[Poi E]

yes minus how much Foreign enterprises are investing in the UK

Isn't the discrete amount of FDI a better indicator of external confidence in the UK's economy? I guess whichever side you look at its not looking shit hot.

 

[gosub]

Isn't the discrete amount of FDI a better indicator of external confidence in the UK's economy? I guess whichever side you look at its not looking shit hot.

Not such a striking headline though
That telegraph story started life as half a trillion lost!

 

[teqniq]

Liam Fox stands by claim that Brexit trade deal will be 'easiest in human history'

Why aren't you in prison?

 

[extra dry]

the pm at a tricky conference yesterday -

I called every one of you plants pots here, this lovely autum afternoon, to reasure and announce that water will be available just as soon as I can fix a ground breaking deal for everyone living indeed now, for now is a very important time ...

 

[SaskiaJayne]

Liam Fox stands by claim that Brexit trade deal will be 'easiest in human history'

Why aren't you in prison?

The loonspud end of brexit have no arguments left so they just bluster. I suppose a trade deal would be easy if the EU & the rest of the world were fully behind brexit & would all work together to achieve brexit success but as the reverse is true Fox, Johnson & co are just reduced to spluttering rhetoric.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

The pendulum seems to have swung back the past few days as it has become apparent to the EU fuckos that May’s fragility isn’t such a good thing for them, if she was to go and be replaced by that Johnson cunt it would be hard Brexit and that means Merkel & Macron have to tell their voters that they need to cough up a lot more dough.


Still think there will be no meaningful deal in the end and if that will be the case telling th EU to get fucked today would be the better move, we still have 18 months before we leave, but preparing now for no deal would mean we could get our shit together and make the best of the car crash that has been happening since that pig fucker called the referendum.

 

[Yossarian]

I called every one of you plants pots here, this lovely autum afternoon, to reasure and announce that water will be available just as soon as I can fix a ground breaking deal for everyone living indeed now, for now is a very important time ...

"I understand that this conference room may be a somewhat challenging environment for you, but sunlight doesn't just fall from the sky, you know."

 

[Nine Bob Note]

the pm at a tricky conference yesterday -

Mayhem came to regret tasking Liam Fox with arranging a few plants for the press conference

 

[William of Walworth]

The pendulum seems to have swung back the past few days as it has become apparent to the EU fuckos that May’s fragility isn’t such a good thing for them, if she was to go and be replaced by that Johnson cunt it would be hard Brexit and that means Merkel & Macron have to tell their voters that they need to cough up a lot more dough.


Still think there will be no meaningful deal in the end and if that will be the case telling th EU to get fucked today would be the better move, we still have 18 months before we leave, but preparing now for no deal would mean we could get our shit together and make the best of the car crash that has been happening since that pig fucker called the referendum.

I don't get your position. Do you favour a Brexit conclusion that's no deal, or do you think the 2016 referendum was a pigfucker of a thing?

Not sure the two are compatible with each other ... if so for you, how??

 

[SaskiaJayne]

I think it is unlikely they will walk away with no deal anytime soon. Labour are now claiming they can get enough cross party support to vote down any no deal scenario.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

'no deal' is posturing by a bunch of idiots who still don't know what kind of deal they actually want. I don't think 'no deal' was ever a possibility.

 

[Dr. Furface]

the pm at a tricky conference yesterday -

To think that only yesterday
I was cheerful, bright and gay
Looking forward to, well who wouldn't do?
The role I was about to play
But as if to knock me down
Reality came around
And without so much as a mere touch
Cut me into little pieces
Leaving me to doubt
Talk about God in his mercy
Oh, if he really does exist
Why did he desert me?
In my hour of need
I truly am indeed
Alone again, naturally

 

[Winot]

I think it is unlikely they will walk away with no deal anytime soon. Labour are now claiming they can get enough cross party support to vote down any no deal scenario.

What role do you see for parliament or Labour?

My understanding is that unless agreement is reached with the EU, the default on 29 March 2019 is that we will leave the EU with no deal in place. So the government might give parliament a role to *approve* a deal that has been reached, but parliament cannot create a deal in the absence of agreement.

 

[Raheem]

What role do you see for parliament or Labour?

My understanding is that unless agreement is reached with the EU, the default on 29 March 2019 is that we will leave the EU with no deal in place. So the government might give parliament a role to *approve* a deal that has been reached, but parliament cannot create a deal in the absence of agreement.

Well, some think that Article 50 can be revoked. But, supposing that is wrong, in the event of no deal by the deadline, the Council of Ministers still has the power to make space for further negotiation by extending the Article 50 period. Undoubtedly, they would do that if they received a request and, probably, a vote in parliament could oblige the government of the day to make a request.

 

[Winot]

Well, some think that Article 50 can be revoked. But, supposing that is wrong, in the event of no deal by the deadline, the Council of Ministers still has the power to make space for further negotiation by extending the Article 50 period. Undoubtedly, they would do that if they received a request and, probably, a vote in parliament could oblige the government of the day to make a request.

You are talking about a scenario in which the UK government is not in favour of making the extension request and is forced to do so by losing a vote in the Commons (if they are in favour, there is no need for parliamentary approval).

I think in practice if that happened it would be seen as a no confidence vote and the government would fall. And for that reason I fear that it will not happen.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

What role do you see for parliament or Labour?

The EU Withdrawal Bill is not going to have an untroubled passage, to say the least.

 

[Winot]

The EU Withdrawal Bill is not going to have an untroubled passage, to say the least.

Agreed. Don’t think that affects the (no) deal with the EU though.

 

[Raheem]

You are talking about a scenario in which the UK government is not in favour of making the extension request and is forced to do so by losing a vote in the Commons (if they are in favour, there is no need for parliamentary approval).

I think in practice if that happened it would be seen as a no confidence vote and the government would fall. And for that reason I fear that it will not happen.

A no confidence vote can only follow a formal no confidence motion. If the government's Brexit proposals are defeated, it's just a government defeat, and the world keeps turning. Even if there were a no confidence vote, there would still be a Prime Minister, because the old one stays until the new one takes up office. So there would still be someone in position to act on the will of parliament.

 

[Winot]

A no confidence vote can only follow a formal no confidence motion. If the government's Brexit proposals are defeated, it's just a government defeat, and the world keeps turning. Even if there were a no confidence vote, there would still be a Prime Minister, because the old one stays until the new one takes up office. So there would still be someone in position to act on the will of parliament.

Do you think it’s likely that Labour can force an extension to Article 50?