Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[BemusedbyLife]

Er...what? Is that what you think?




You are a fucking moron.

Tsk! if you wish to disagree with me you are welcome to do so but please explain why.

 

[redsquirrel]

i never said you did - but its what's likely to happen. And economic crises, resurgent nationalism and the material conditions of the working class will be made worse by brexit.

There's a resurgent nationalism across most of the west, Brexit isn't the cause of that it's a product. Now I admit it could feed back into it, but if you think a Remain vote wouldn't have also provided a route for feedback then I think you're fooling yourself (UKIP would have made hay). Moreover, there's no reason why the UK leaving the EU has to go in a nationalist direction - that's still to be fought over.

Likewise I don't accept that the material conditions of the working class will necessarily be made worse by Brexit.

 

[mojo pixy]

I'm pleased you're concerned about the suffering of real people - I take it you like me want to see and end to working class people dieing because of Tory benefit cuts or Syrian refugees drowning in the Med because Fortress Europe doesn't give a shit. I take it you, like me, will feel similar revulsion to the politicians that allow this to happen, whether it be May or Merkel or Macron.

That's as may be but if you want to propose that the people who pushed so hard for brexit and are now running it feel the same then I simply don't believe it.

I don't believe the EU cares about people either, on case anyone feels like slinging some whataboutery in this direction. But as far as I can see this isn't actually about the EU because none of the socioeconomic assumptions of the EU are being challenged in any way by brexit in its current form. This is about a small group of right wingers who finally got their way.

 

[redsquirrel]

I don't believe the EU cares about people either, on case anyone feels like slinging some whataboutery in this direction. But as far as I can see this isn't actually about the EU because none of the socioeconomic assumptions of the EU are being challenged in any way by brexit in its current form.

Corbyn has just delivered a speech urging European centre-left parties to move to the left

He said: “The neoliberal economic model … doesn’t work for most people. Inequality and low taxes for the richest are hurting our people and the economy, as even the IMF acknowledges. Our thinking must become the new consensus.”

The UK is (probably) going to leave, Melachon was hostile to the EU in France, the Portugeuse communists have called for a referendum, there's Greece (obviously). Now I'm no social democrat or fan of Labour but I do think there are some positive moves being build that attack the neo-liberalism of the EU.

 

[SpackleFrog]

i never said you did - but its what's likely to happen. And economic crises, resurgent nationalism and the material conditions of the working class will be made worse by brexit.

So you keep saying. What's your track record on the crystal ball?

 

[SpackleFrog]

But as far as I can see this isn't actually about the EU because none of the socioeconomic assumptions of the EU are being challenged in any way by brexit in its current form.

What is Brexit's "current form"?

 

[SpackleFrog]

Tsk! if you wish to disagree with me you are welcome to do so but please explain why.

Because you think that numbers don't lie, and don't seem to grasp that people use statistics and data to support their position/argument.

Maths doesn't care about left or right or what people want to happen, it's just an analysis of the data available.

It's not maths, it's economics. And every theoretical approach to economics carries with it it's own particular premises - none of which (unless you're talking about political economy) takes into account the working class as a social force capable of shaping the future.

 

[inva]

It's not maths, it's economics. And every theoretical approach to economics carries with it it's own particular premises - none of which (unless you're talking about political economy) takes into account the working class as a social force capable of shaping the future.

i'm not sure political economy especially took that into account more than economics... wasn't that one of the ways Marx criticised it for example? it can address the action of working class people, as a problem or cost to be managed/reduced.
(agree with your general point though)

 

[SpackleFrog]

i'm not sure political economy especially took that into account more than economics... wasn't that one of the ways Marx criticised it for example? it can address the action of working class people, as a problem or cost to be managed/reduced.
(agree with your general point though)

Yes, but post Marx lots of approaches to political economy do attempt to factor in subjective/collective agency etc

 

[inva]

Yes, but post Marx lots of approaches to political economy do attempt to factor in subjective/collective agency etc

after playing my Marx card i'm now showing my ignorance as i didn't even know political economy was still a thing

 

[killer b]

no mention of wether or not they sung 'oh jeremy corbyn' in euro accents

I read that there was a few rounds of it.

 

[redsquirrel]

I read that there was a few rounds of it.

Seriously?

 

[killer b]

Well, I dunno. The reporter on twitter I read seemed serious but you can never tell.

It's just for lols anyway isn't it? I don't think anyone has ever sung a round of ohhh jeremy corbyn without a firm sense of the ridiculous.

 

[killer b]

although the french sing ah-ho-ee-oh-ee-oh jeremy corbyn, of course. (sorry)

 

[redsquirrel]

It's just for lols anyway isn't it? I don't think anyone has ever sung a round of ohhh jeremy corbyn without a firm sense of the ridiculous.

Yeah, wasn't meaning it as a criticism, just that it's sometimes hard to know if these things are real or not.

 

[mojo pixy]

Corbyn has just delivered a speech urging European centre-left parties to move to the left

The UK is (probably) going to leave, Melachon was hostile to the EU in France, the Portugeuse communists have called for a referendum, there's Greece (obviously). Now I'm no social democrat or fan of Labour but I do think there are some positive moves being build that attack the neo-liberalism of the EU.

I know there's plenty of opposition to the EU on the political left all across Europe, and their criticisms reflect a lot of my own opinions on the matter. I've said it before and I may again but I voted remain not because of the EU but because of the tory government.

Because largely,

What is Brexit's "current form"?

(at best)

 

[redsquirrel]

Looks like he's doing an Oaten there.

 

[mojo pixy]

although the french sing ah-ho-ee-oh-ee-oh jeremy corbyn, of course. (sorry)

Ah vous dirai-je Corbyn

 

[killer b]

le garcon absolu

 

[SpackleFrog]

I know there's plenty of opposition to the EU on the political left all across Europe, and their criticisms reflect a lot of my own opinions on the matter. I've said it before and I may again but I voted remain not because of the EU but because of the tory government.

Because largely,

(at best)

That's your answer? Brexit = David Davis?

What does that mean?

 

[mojo pixy]

David Davis is the UK's ''chief brexit negotiator''. He's working for Theresa May. Foreign secretary just now is Boris Johnson. International Trade Sec is Liam Fox.

Other deeply involved parties are all the Barniers and the Junckers others generously dubbed cunts on this thread.

What does it mean? These are the people in charge of what the UKs exit from the EU will look like. None of them are going to challenge a neoliberal consensus any time soon. What this is about (as far as I can see) is not challenging the neoliberal consensus, it's about getting a bigger slice of the neoliberal pie. It was always and only about that, from the point of view of the people running the show, who are (whatta coincidence!) the people who argued for it loudest (on the wider public stage, at least).

We can blue-sky this as much as we want but let's not lose sight of what's actually happening, for the time being. David Davis and Michel Barnier and all their besuited bosses and lackeys. None of them enemies of neoliberalism, all of them trying to get as much of the imagined pie as possible.

* * *

How could we (The People, or at least Some People We Trust) gain control of the process? At the moment, for me, this is the most important question around brexit. I think this is the question the left should be finding an answer to. An answer that doesn't just involve waiting for the tory party to fuck it up and melt down (not necessarily in that order)

 

[SpackleFrog]

David Davis is the UK's ''chief brexit negotiator''. He's working for Theresa May. Foreign secretary just now is Boris Johnson. International Trade Sec is Liam Fox.

Other deeply involved parties are all the Barniers and the Junckers others generously dubbed cunts on this thread.

What does it mean? These are the people in charge of what the UKs exit from the EU will look like. None of them are going to challenge a neoliberal consensus any time soon. What this is about (as far as I can see) is not challenging the neoliberal consensus, it's about getting a bigger slice of the neoliberal pie. It was always and only about that, from the point of view of the people running the show, who are (whatta coincidence!) the people who argued for it loudest (on the wider public stage, at least).

We can blue-sky this as much as we want but let's not lose sight of what's actually happening, for the time being. David Davis and Michel Barnier and all their besuited bosses and lackeys. None of them enemies of neoliberalism, all of them trying to get as much of the imagined pie as possible.

* * *

How could we (The People, or at least Some People We Trust) gain control of the process? At the moment, for me, this is the most important question around brexit. I think this is the question the left should be finding an answer to. An answer that doesn't just involve waiting for the tory party to fuck it up and melt down (not necessarily in that order)

I think it's myopic and unscientific to believe that only elite actors can influence any of this - but we'll agree to disagree there cos your question at the end is very important and perhaps there we agree.

I don't think there's any point seeing Brexit seperately from austerity - anger at the Tories and at whats happening drove the vote to leave in large part (as well as some racism and nationalism before anyone says it, that too) and both the Tories and the various other right wing ruling parties in Europe are the enemy. How we can gain control of the process is I agree an excellent question, and I think the answer lies in the escalating strike action taking place, as well as Corbyn's Labour Party. Without the TUC or anyone on the organised left really making it happen (in fact the TUC are doing their best to put their foot on the brakes) workplace disputes are erupting everywhere and all it would take to get rid of the Tories would be to co-ordinate these strikes and disputes. Add in the community campaigns that are developing around the NHS, or housing (particularly after Grenfell) and you don't need to look for an army, it's there in front of us. This government is so weak that if we got our act together we could quite literally blow them away.

Then there's the question of what replaces them - at the moment we have the remnants of an old social democratic party led by a nice social democratic type but infested with neoliberals who are using the EU as their main point of attack against the Left. The main strength of Corbynism isn't Corbyn but the hundreds of thousands of new Labour members. If, alongside building a movement to get rid of the Tories, we had a serious campaign to democratise the Labour Party and empower those hundreds of thousands of new members to exercise control over the Party, then we would have an organisation capable of delivering the future we want - in or out of the EU.

I voted leave, you voted remain, I would vote leave a thousand times over again if I could - but I never thought there was anything in our future but misery unless we get rid of the Tories. The EU ref has severely weakened them but they're still in power and that cannot be allowed to continue. I agree completely that we can't just wait for them to fuck it up - everyone in the movement should be clear that we have to force them out. Otherwise they'll hang on like grim death and yeah, they'll be in charge of post-Brexit Britain. In or out of the EU, the key task is getting rid of the Tories and building an organisation that will act as a political voice for the working class.

 

[BemusedbyLife]

Because you think that numbers don't lie, and don't seem to grasp that people use statistics and data to support their position/argument.
It's not maths, it's economics. And every theoretical approach to economics carries with it it's own particular premises - none of which (unless you're talking about political economy) takes into account the working class as a social force capable of shaping the future.

A more reasoned argument than your last one, and this contain points I agree with. Numbers don't lie, people do and they certainly put their own spin on the facts but facts are still facts.
At the moment though as far as I am aware and I have certainly seen no evidence otherwise all 'experts' (and I am sure we disagree on who these are) from both sides of the political spectrum are of the opinion that there will a modest drop in the UK's economic activity post Brexit. Long term no-one can possibly predict what will happen whether we will become a shining beacon on the hill for world socialism or a mini-version of the state of Kentucky (sadly I personally suspect the latter is more likely than the first but happy to be proved wrong)
The working class have always been a force for social change, be it via the ballot box or Madam La Guilotine butit's not the only force for social change and at the moment as mojo pixy has pointed out, it doesn't even have a seat at the table.

 

[SpackleFrog]

A more reasoned argument than your last one, and this contain points I agree with. Numbers don't lie, people do and they certainly put their own spin on the facts but facts are still facts.
At the moment though as far as I am aware and I have certainly seen no evidence otherwise all 'experts' (and I am sure we disagree on who these are) from both sides of the political spectrum are of the opinion that there will a modest drop in the UK's economic activity post Brexit. Long term no-one can possibly predict what will happen whether we will become a shining beacon on the hill for world socialism or a mini-version of the state of Kentucky (sadly I personally suspect the latter is more likely than the first but happy to be proved wrong)
The working class have always been a force for social change, be it via the ballot box or Madam La Guilotine butit's not the only force for social change and at the moment as mojo pixy has pointed out, it doesn't even have a seat at the table.

Sigh.

 

[bemused]

International Trade Sec is Liam Fox.

What happened to toady Liam?

 

[mojo pixy]

Why, he's recently been promoting the benefits of Free Trade, along with prominent business and political figures, of course.

 

[mojo pixy]

• Cheltenham-based fragrance house Marmalade of London is celebrated success in Canada following 2 orders over the summer and anticipated sales of almost £1.4 million over the next 5 years
  
  That's brexit sorted then

 

[Fez909]

there will a modest drop in the UK's economic activity post Brexit.

I've never understood why this is such an issue for people.

The economy is currently the largest it's ever been, but living standards are falling. If it can happen that way around, why not the other?

Why can't a smaller UK economy mean a more equal society, and a better deal for the WC?

 

[SpookyFrank]

• Cheltenham-based fragrance house Marmalade of London is celebrated success in Canada following 2 orders over the summer and anticipated sales of almost £1.4 million over the next 5 years
  
  That's brexit sorted then

If they are Cheltenham-based, how can they be Anything of London?

 

[killer b]

I doubt there's many places that manufacture in London itself anymore. They'll have a shop there though, like all the other 'of London' places in London that sell things not made in London.