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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?

  • Yes - A fully independant Britain making its own way in the world (apart from scotland).

    Votes: 66 18.2%

  • A Semi-Detached Norway type deal

    Votes: 111 30.7%

  • No - 2nd referendum and/or face saving fudge to let us slink back in feeling a bit fucking stupid

    Votes: 185 51.1%
  • Total voters
    362
DotCommunist said:
it also led to the rise of a left wing government did it not? one that was brought to heel by the EU institutions.
funny how they are a-ok with member states having far right leanings isn't it. Taking names for halal meat now, lists.
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Quite so. You can have all the democracy you like as long as you choose between centre-right and far-right.

Of course the monstering of Corbyn shows that the British establishment is of a mind with the EU brass on this point.
 
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mojo pixy said:
It's just as arguable, if not more so, that NATO is what's prevented a large-scale european war for the last 70 years.
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And the Warsaw Pact: stalemate. Since then NATO has been needlessly expanding eastwards, arguably sparking at least one war on European soil.

Yugoslavia was pretty large-scale and neither NATO nor the EU lifted a finger until it was too late.
 
mod said:
Couldn't disagree more. remain would win easily. Many of the people who voted leave are dead for a start. Many who 'wanted' to vote remain are now eligible to vote. I know several leave voters who regret their decision.
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Oh well, if you know several people that would vote differently then that must equal a gargantuan percentage swing...

Tool.
 
mod said:
I firmly believe it is. So we will disagree.

“
Why was the EU created?

After the Second World War there was a new movement to create unity between Germany and France, which would ultimately lay the foundations for the European Union four decades later.

When was the EU formed?

The EU can trace its origins from the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) and the European Economic Community (EEC), formed in 1951 and 1958 respectively by the Inner Six countries of Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.”
Click to expand...

:facepalm:

Why was the EU created? To act as a bulwark against the Soviet Union and to preserve failing European economic power as the old colonies gained independence.

mod said:
This is an interesting article on the subject.

How valid is the claim that the EU has delivered peace in Europe?
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No, it's a shit article.
 
mod said:
This is an interesting article on the subject.

How valid is the claim that the EU has delivered peace in Europe?
Click to expand...

as has been said, its a shit article - how would you evaluate an idea about why western European states had not gone to war with each other that failed to mention the nuclear armed superpower on the eastern border with 10,000 tanks, as many Artillery pieces, 3 million men, 5,000 fast jets and 10,000 nukes?

its a bit like pontificating about why Mercia and Wessex engaged in mutual non-aggression and joint economic stimulus and failing to mention the Vikings and the Danelaw.

utter fucking bilge.
 
What a load of shite coming from brexiters on this thread now, honestly.

Unable to answer any questions they resort to demanding solutions from remainers and spouting nonsense about history.
 
(probably futile attempt to summarise recent bit of thread)

1. Brexit may/is likely to see a reduction in GDP.

2. GDP is an ideological measure. Ordinary people can have better lives on a lower GDP if different political choices are made.

3. A government prepared to make those political choices with a higher GDP at its disposal is likely to have more chance of making ordinary people’s lives better.

4. So if you want to make ordinary people’s lives better, the gamble depends on (a) the extent to which whether Brexit makes it more likely to get a government of the right persuasion against (b) the downside of possible/likely GDP reduction.
 
DexterTCN said:
What a load of shite coming from brexiters on this thread now, honestly.

Unable to answer any questions they resort to demanding solutions from remainers and spouting nonsense about history.
Click to expand...

i'm afraid i'd say the same about remainers - absolutely nothing about how the EU might be reformed while endlessly saying it should be, and holding up the most transparent nonsense as lessons from history.
 
DexterTCN said:
What a load of shite coming from brexiters on this thread now, honestly.

Unable to answer any questions they resort to demanding solutions from remainers and spouting nonsense about history.
Click to expand...
Bit like the bad losers from the remain side on here, its non stop
They just dont stop with drivel and bitterness
Well said above post sealion
 
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Winot said:
(probably futile attempt to summarise recent bit of thread)

1. Brexit may/is likely to see a reduction in GDP.

2. GDP is an ideological measure. Ordinary people can have better lives on a lower GDP if different political choices are made.

3. A government prepared to make those political choices with a higher GDP at its disposal is likely to have more chance of making ordinary people’s lives better.

4. So if you want to make ordinary people’s lives better, the gamble depends on (a) the extent to which whether Brexit makes it more likely to get a government of the right persuasion against (b) the downside of possible/likely GDP reduction.
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3 simply isn’t true. It assumes that GDP is synonymous with tax revenue but it’s not. Reducing corporation tax to 5% would probably raise GDP but reduce tax intake. Leaving the EU damages the ability of companies to offshore their profits, which could well reduce GDP but raise tax intake.

When we say a focus on GDP is ideological, we don’t just mean this as a technicality. The fact is that even GDP and fiscal income are partially correlated at best.

Even the ONS explicitly acknowledge this awkward relationship between GDP and welfare in their note I linked to earlier.
 
kabbes said:
3 simply isn’t true. It assumes that GDP is synonymous with tax revenue but it’s not. Reducing corporation tax to 5% would probably raise GDP but reduce tax intake. Leaving the EU damages the ability of companies to offshore their profits, which could well reduce GDP but raise tax intake.

When we say a focus on GDP is ideological, we don’t just mean this as a technicality. The fact is that even GDP and fiscal income are partially correlated at best.

Even the ONS explicitly acknowledge this awkward relationship between GDP and welfare in their note I linked to earlier.
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Noted. Not an economics expert so happy to listen and learn.

So do you think leaving the EU will raise tax revenue?
 
Winot said:
Noted. Not an economics expert so happy to listen and learn.

So do you think leaving the EU will raise tax revenue?
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It could reduce or raise it depending on government policy. Sorry it’s s fudge answer but it’s true. It’s not Brexit that matters, it’s government policy, same as it always is. Brexit is a massive red herring.

One last point about GDP — it’s best really to think of changes in GDP as changes in pre-taxe corporate income. That’s what drives its movements, after all. But if you say “I’m worried that pre-tax corporate income will drop 5%!” it doesn’t sound quite so scary, does it?
 
I'm not an economics expert either, but doesn't GDP include government spending?

So, if Corbyn comes in and spends £300 billion on a gold statue of Chavez standing on top of the Angel of the North then GDP goes up by £300 billion?
 
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sealion said:
As opposed to the scaremongering shit from remainers. Fucking starvation, world wars, poisoned chicken :D etc.
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Some people out there in the world may be using these issues blindly as part of Project Fear bias, but post-Breixt (if it happens) as Lexiters the next step will be to stop
mass deregulation/
becoming the 51st state/
the rise of a violent nationalist right across Europe (who are successfully using anti-EU-sentiment as a rallying call)
...all real concerns

No Deal crash out has real consequences too but not much we can do about that
 
kabbes said:
It could reduce or raise it depending on government policy. Sorry it’s s fudge answer but it’s true. It’s not Brexit that matters, it’s government policy, same as it always is. Brexit is a massive red herring.

One last point about GDP — it’s best really to think of changes in GDP as changes in pre-taxe corporate income. That’s what drives its movements, after all. But if you say “I’m worried that pre-tax corporate income will drop 5%!” it doesn’t sound quite so scary, does it?
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Shut up you moron. brexit happens in 6 months. You've not got one trade deal in place, not one...you need thousands.

The latest brainiac scheme was that the UK would just take a share of the EU's WTO quotas and you've been told to fuck off. You don't even have WTO.

There's not one fucking business in the UK that knows what is going to happen...how the fuck are they supposed to prepare? 6 months! You think they're hiring? Investing?

Fucking nonsense about a 5% drop in pre-tax profits.
 
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DexterTCN said:
Shut up you moron. brexit happens in 6 months. You've not got one trade deal in place, not one...you need thousands.

The latest brainiac scheme was that the UK would just take a share of the EU's WTO quotas and you've been told to fuck off. You don't even have WTO.

There's not one fucking business in the UK that knows what is going to happen...how the fuck are they supposed to prepare? 6 months! You think they're hiring? Investing?

Fucking nonsense about a 5% drop in pre-tax profits.
Click to expand...

Temper temper :rolleyes:
 
Bahnhof Strasse said:
Seriously, you see attitudes displayed on this very thread glorifying low life expectancy of the poor and you think people aren’t disgusted by that? It’s a vicious, nasty vibe running through the liberal establishment along with “thick, racist proles”.

It’s a nasty streak that’s been exposed in society.
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CRI said:
they make some comment about controlling Emma Grayshun :rolleyes:)
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Oh look a HILARIOUS joke about regional accents :rolleyes:
 
kabbes said:
It could reduce or raise it depending on government policy. Sorry it’s s fudge answer but it’s true. It’s not Brexit that matters, it’s government policy, same as it always is. Brexit is a massive red herring.

One last point about GDP — it’s best really to think of changes in GDP as changes in pre-taxe corporate income. That’s what drives its movements, after all. But if you say “I’m worried that pre-tax corporate income will drop 5%!” it doesn’t sound quite so scary, does it?
Click to expand...

OK, but if the notional left wing government has £100 in the pre-tax income pot and has corporation tax at 30% then it brings in less tax revenue than that tax does with £110 in the pot, no?
 
I came across this video, which is long, and may already be familiar.
It is not a discussion about political ideology, nor re-running the brexit debate, nor is it about EU reform, it is about the actual practicalities of the UK leaving (mainly leaving with a no deal).
There will be plenty of opportunity to judge and/or scoff but the discussion is interesting in terms of the detail talked about.
It was recorded the same evening Boris resigned...the Monday after Chequers I believe.

 
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