Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[pocketscience]

One guy mentions immigration as the first issue,

He say's it's one factor. Oh and he's an Asian/British fella.

another wants Britain to be Britain again.

Yeah that's all there was... An Asian fella mentioning immigration and another saying he wants Britain to be Britain again.
There's me thinking I could help you open your sheltered eyes. There really are none so blind than those who don't want to see.

Someone thinks austerity has been imposed by the EU.

And you disagree with her?

 

[Hollis]

Unless there's some massive revelation or change in circumstances I still think a general election is more likely and that might turn into a proxy referendum or the offer of a second vote might become an issue...

Who fucking knows though.

I also think a General Election is most likely, with Corbyn keen to enact 'the will of the people', or at least those he thinks will get him elected.

 

[redsquirrel]

The people I've talked to who are "meh" about Brexit seem either to people who voted leave who don't want to be associated with the racist UKIP / EDL contingent (even if when in the next breath they make some comment about controlling Emma Grayshun ), or they're wealthy enough (and white British enough) to believe that when the Brexit shit hits the fan, other people will get the full force of it while they'll be spared the worst privations. They might wince about the absence of avocado toast, but otherwise will probably be fine. Some are both of course.

If Brexit is the major issue dominating everyones politics why was it almost absent from the general election last year?

 

[mod]

Blame the eu and government.

Over 70 years of peace in Europe risked thanks to a vote based on lies and ignorance spouted by cunts more interested in their own political futures. The EU is far from perfect and needs reformed but compare life in Europe during the 70 years before its formation. We were constantly at war with each other.

How much money has this cost to date? How many friendships ruined. This country is a fucking laughing stock.

 

[kebabking]

Over 70 years of peace in Europe risked thanks to a vote based on lies and ignorance spouted by cunts more interested in their own political futures. The EU is far from perfect and needs reformed but compare life in Europe during the 70 years before its formation. We were constantly at war with each other.

How much money has this cost to date? How many friendships ruined. This country is a fucking laughing stock.

Crap - the EU is no more the reason that western European states haven't gone to war with each other in the last 70 years than Channel 4 showing the Muppets Christmas Carol is the reason my children enjoy Christmas.

 

[mod]

Crap - the EU is no more the reason that western European states haven't gone to war with each other in the last 70 years than Channel 4 showing the Muppets Christmas Carol is the reason my children enjoy Christmas.

I firmly believe it is. So we will disagree.

“
Why was the EU created?

After the Second World War there was a new movement to create unity between Germany and France, which would ultimately lay the foundations for the European Union four decades later.

When was the EU formed?

The EU can trace its origins from the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) and the European Economic Community (EEC), formed in 1951 and 1958 respectively by the Inner Six countries of Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.”

 

[mod]

Crap - the EU is no more the reason that western European states haven't gone to war with each other in the last 70 years than Channel 4 showing the Muppets Christmas Carol is the reason my children enjoy Christmas.

This is an interesting article on the subject.

How valid is the claim that the EU has delivered peace in Europe?

 

[kebabking]

I firmly believe it is. So we will disagree.

“
Why was the EU created?

After the Second World War there was a new movement to create unity between Germany and France, which would ultimately lay the foundations for the European Union four decades later.

When was the EU formed?

The EU can trace its origins from the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) and the European Economic Community (EEC), formed in 1951 and 1958 respectively by the Inner Six countries of Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.”

The reason that western European states haven't gone to war with each other in the last 70 years is called 'the Red Army' - the argument that it is economic ties that prevent war is the somewhat inconvenient fact that the day before Germany invaded France in 1940 it's largest trading partner was, err... France, and that the day before Germany invaded Russia in 1941 it's largest trading partner was, err... Russia.

 

[kabbes]

Who exactly in the EU would have gone to war with each other if the EU didn’t exist? France and Germany again? How and why?

 

[Poi E]

Hmm, which is the most militarist country in the EU that has a recent history of attacking other countries?

 

[mod]

Who exactly in the EU would have gone to war with each other if the EU didn’t exist? France and Germany again? How and why?

European countries have been at war with each other for many reasons for literally centuries. Yugoslavia aside, is it a coincidence european wars have all but stopped since 1951?

 

[DexterTCN]

European countries have been at war with each other for many reasons for literally centuries. Yugoslavia aside, is it a coincidence european wars have all but stopped since 1951?

Nope, not a coincidence. Obviously.

 

[kebabking]

Nope, not a coincidence. Obviously.

England and Scotland were at war from before they became political identities to the dual monarchy of the Stewarts, yet you want independence - do you want war with England?

 

[DexterTCN]

England and Scotland were at war from before they became political identities to the dual monarchy of the Stewarts, yet you want independence - do you want war with England?

Yes. As soon as we get indy we're going to invade England. It's our secret plan, how did you find out?

 

[gentlegreen]

If not preventing WW3, I see the EU as a "liberalising" force with countries having to abide by EU standards (esp human rights - the sort of thing the Brexiters hate) in order to join.
I still don't understand what happened to Greece - presumably problems in evaluating their fiscal enforcement...

 

[pocketscience]

. The EU is far from perfect and needs to be [sic] reformed
.

Brexiters have been constantly challenged to provide working solutions to the problems inherent with leaving the EU on this thread, yet the above statement gets constantly repeated along with: 'its better to change the EU from within'.
So how the fuck do remainers propose to change the EU from within?
Its been it's top strategic agenda point since the 2008 crisis and has progressed by the grand sum of fuck all in that time.
Macron was sold as the latest gallant knight on the quest for EU reform yet as soon as Merkel got her coalition up and running she kicked him back into in the long grass, as other reformers have been over the years.
Streeck does a good job detailing the impending car crash in this article, arguing that with the Merkel IV German government the EU is entering a period of impotency due to a slow implosion of relations between Germany, France and Italy. With all likelihood of the later bailing out in an Italexit.

Italy, meanwhile, now resembles Greece, in that it can neither hope to recover on its own nor to be saved by others. While Germany, in particular, but also France, cannot let Italy exit from the EMU in peace—just as they cannot let Britain exit from the EU in peace—Italy will not heal as long as it remains locked into the eurozone. There is no politically feasible institutional reform either at the European level or in Italy itself that could get the country back on its feet.

So how do these reforms look?
How can they get done?
What chance is there of the European left wing steering reforms as it's the far right making all the gains in the countries that matter?

To paraphrase Kaka Tim, I'd love to see it but it just ain't happening. I'm seeing unicorns.

 

[RD2003]

If not preventing WW3, I see the EU as a "liberalising" force with countries having to abide by EU standards (esp human rights - the sort of thing the Brexiters hate) in order to join.
I still don't understand what happened to Greece - presumably problems in evaluating their fiscal enforcement...

This is the crucial point for those of us who are just about old enough to remember the dark days before the EU forced 'human rights' upon the UK.

One of the most depressing aspects of the Leave campaign was the constant insistence that 'human rights' must be abolished.

 

[kebabking]

Yes. As soon as we get indy we're going to invade England. It's our secret plan, how did you find out?

it was easy - you've got shit taste, so we'll let you see us hollow out the defences on the Western March and you'll attack decisively to Carlisle (it was owned by David I of Scotland in the 12th century), while we concentrate our forces in the Eastern March, and while you're hitting the victory celebrations in Carlisle we'll race up the A1 from Berwick-upon-Tweed and take North Berwick.

which is much nicer than Carlisle.

 

[SpookyFrank]

If not preventing WW3, I see the EU as a "liberalising" force with countries having to abide by EU standards (esp human rights - the sort of thing the Brexiters hate) in order to join.
I still don't understand what happened to Greece - presumably problems in evaluating their fiscal enforcement...

You've put your finger on the crux of the problem there. EU countries have to abide by (some) human rights standards but the EU itself can override those same rights if it's deemed necessary for economic reasons.

Just the other day a major piece of research linking austerity policies to the brexit vote was published. Well Greece is basically the same thing gone into overdrive; externally enforced austerity has coincided with an increase in fascist activity at street level and in mainstream politics.

 

[kabbes]

European countries have been at war with each other for many reasons for literally centuries. Yugoslavia aside, is it a coincidence european wars have all but stopped since 1951?

Do you think the political situation of France and Germany 1951 to present is reflective of the circumstances that led to the proto-France and proto-Germany’s wars from 1500 to 1945?

If so, that’s some serious lack of understanding of historical context you’ve got going on there. If not, what the fuck have their historical wars got to do with anything?

We don’t have a lack of wars because of the EU. We have an EU because of the lack of (geopolitical context that creates) wars. There’s your lack of coincidence. You just have the cause and effect the wrong way round.

 

[kabbes]

I mean, China and Japan were in hundreds of years worth of wars before 1951 too, frequently with EU countries. EU countries also colonised most of Africa and America in the hundreds of years before 1951. Has the EU prevented repeats of these things as well?

 

[bimble]

..We don’t have a lack of wars because of the EU. We have an EU because of the lack of (geopolitical context that creates) wars. There’s your lack of coincidence. You just have the cause and effect the wrong way round.

Can you explain a bit more what you mean, like what is it about the geopolitical context that you think has changed which has caused there to be no wars?

 

[DotCommunist]

it also led to the rise of a left wing government did it not? one that was brought to heel by the EU institutions.
funny how they are a-ok with member states having far right leanings isn't it. Taking names for halal meat now, lists.

You've put your finger on the crux of the problem there. EU countries have to abide by (some) human rights standards but the EU itself can override those same rights if it's deemed necessary for economic reasons.

Just the other day a major piece of research linking austerity policies to the brexit vote was published. Well Greece is basically the same thing gone into overdrive; externally enforced austerity has coincided with an increase in fascist activity at street level and in mainstream politics.

 

[kabbes]

Can you explain a bit more what you mean, like what is it about the geopolitical context that you think has changed which has caused there to be no wars?

What advantage is there in this stage of capitalism for e.g. Germany to invade another country? What would they get out of it? Who would make the decision to do it? How would they fund the ongoing war? How would the population react?

How much of any of that is because Germany have a customs union and shared currency?

 

[mojo pixy]

It's just as arguable, if not more so, that NATO is what's prevented a large-scale european war for the last 70 years.

 

[MightyTibberton]

That's an excellent article in pocketscience's post by the way, fascinating, and one of the most beautifully written (on a superficial level, it's full of memorable lines) political essays I think I've ever read!

 

[DotCommunist]

It's just as arguable, if not more so, that NATO is what's prevented a large-scale european war for the last 70 years.

right, lets just ignore the armoured elephant in the room, its the technocrats who buy us peace lol

 

[MightyTibberton]

Arguing historical counterfactuals is impossible in my opinion. You'll never be able to "prove" convincingly to those who don't want to agree with your argument that the EU is or is not a major reason why Europe stopped having regular (and particularly regular Franco-German) wars. It happened... the wars stopped happenening (for now! ). Stopping those conflicts was one of its stated founding principles... the wars stopped happening (for now!). NATO happened. Nuclear deterrence happened (Le Bomb!). A million other things happened. You can probably trade links with equally credible people making equally credible arguments in either direction for days.

The First World War ended with a whole world swearing it would never happen again and within living memory it did, on an even more massive and disastrous scale. History is too chaotic to make too much sense of in a strictly logical sense I think.

 

[CRI]

And the other people who said it on this thread.

Receipts please. Ta.

 

[kabbes]

Receipts please. Ta.

Go through 337 pages so you can ignore them again? I’ll pass, thanks. You can choose to believe I’m a liar if you want.