Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Humberto]

I think its an interesting question this one of who will get the opprobrium if after leaving (which as things stand we are) things get bleaker. The referendum was handled badly and has polarised large groups. Others may say people are sabotaging Brexit by not 'making it a success', or in other words, complaining. I'd like to think we will be OK whatever happens. I do however think the most likely scenario is that neoliberalism will be accelerated. So more London bubble, less investment in the other regions, slashing regulations and the mantra of the free market. People on here and elsewhere said that before the ref tbf, so not an original analysis. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[Ax^]

Nah Mayhem has got him beat I think, DC was an estate agent who got lucky but Mayhem is just totally fucking useless and has less control over her party than the Downing street cat.

she is sacrificial lamb of the Tory Party

we spent more than 30 years pushing for this

But the fucking mess that is going to result from it is all at the feet of May

tbf its the base of the push of both Boris and Moggs mantras for control of the Tory Party

 

[Poi E]

Power will be more concentrated at Westminster. So yeah, more of the same, but worse.

Trying to fix the UK's ongoing constitutional crisis is going to take more than another referendum or some other tired old party taking the reigns.

 

[billbond]

Spoiler: Cameron recently with his mum

View attachment 141891

Tbf he looks well, as does seb
Being away from politics seems to agree with him.
The good life a

 

[gentlegreen]

First stop BREXIT-ville ...

Theresa May to take her Brexit roadshow to the north-east

 

[redsquirrel]

Are you also against nationalisation? What about higher taxes? Rolling back anti-strike laws?

 

[gentlegreen]

Are you also against nationalisation? What about higher taxes? Rolling back anti-strike laws?

Does the EU make labour laws better or worse than the Tories left to their own devices ?

 

[Winot]

Does the EU make labour laws better or worse than the Tories left to their own devices ?

I sometimes think the entirety of political debate on Urban can be summed up by asking “do you want something that is half good that can actually happen or something that is completely good that will never happen?”.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I sometimes think the entirety of political debate on Urban can be summed up by asking “do you want something that is half good that can actually happen or something that is completely good that will never happen?”.

The half good thing is usually bolted on to a 100% bad thing though. Like a second-hand life jacket that comes with a free anchor.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Pinched from mason

Here’s the future of the U.K. in a simple flowcharts

 

[not-bono-ever]

British reject May's Brexit plan, some turn to Boris and far right...


It takes a handful of cunts to hold us back

 

[DotCommunist]

I sometimes think the entirety of political debate on Urban can be summed up by asking “do you want something that is half good that can actually happen or something that is completely good that will never happen?”.

list the good things, the milk and the honey. Say word to me like working time directive.
Paint me like one of your french girls

I like masons flowcharts though, at least he's not exhorting the war machine onwards today

 

[Mr Moose]

I sometimes think the entirety of political debate on Urban can be summed up by asking “do you want something that is half good that can actually happen or something that is completely good that will never happen?”.

You forgot, ‘because if you want the former you are a war mongering racist with no politics’.

 

[Toast Rider]

 

[redsquirrel]

Does the EU make labour laws better or worse than the Tories left to their own devices ?

How is that relevant to the questions I asked?

I'm not the one pimping an ideology that calls for attacks on workers, that's you. The same people who are screaming about the negative effects of Brexit on UK GDP are also the people that insist that nationalising utilities, raising taxes, making it easier for people to strike will also "damage the economy". By following them you are parroting a neo-liberal pro-market line.

 

[redsquirrel]

Pinched from mason

Here’s the future of the U.K. in a simple flowcharts<snip>

That is absolutely fucking garbage. Are these things he thinks will happen? That could happen? Are "Blairites Split" and "Votes Down May Deal" mutually incompatible options? If so why?

 

[krtek a houby]

Pinched from mason

Here’s the future of the U.K. in a simple flowcharts



View attachment 141945

If an independent Scotland and a united Ireland come out of it, I might find myself warming to this Brexit lark.

 

[Poi E]

Symptomatic of rather than a cause of the dissolution of the British state. The seeds were sown decades ago. Labour's Unionist obsession, founded in raw electoral politics, leaves them as reactionary as the Tories when it comes to constitutional matters.

 

[krtek a houby]

Symptomatic of rather than a cause of the dissolution of the British state. The seeds were sown decades ago. Labour's Unionist obsession, founded in raw electoral politics, leaves them as reactionary as the Tories when it comes to constitutional matters.

Symptom or cause... either way, it's (hopefully) good news for Ireland and Scotland. Obviously, that's going to leave many working class unionists upset but they've had their day.

 

[Poi E]

Such working class unionists perhaps remember the days of some sort of solidarity established through the many departed British institutions of state.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Does the EU make labour laws better or worse than the Tories left to their own devices ?

This is like, a perfect summing up of what the world looks like if you are completely myopic and only able to understand the world through a series of multiple choice binaries. Perfect, well done

 

[SpackleFrog]

yes and no they may not feel any sense of wrong doing about not following the rules but they don't want to be stuck with a massive bill for unpaid duty 6 months down the line, doesn't look good on the balance sheet.

Until someone determines what duty needs to be paid, it won't affect their balance sheet. Probably still won't make any difference. Theoretically they're supposed to pay taxes too but you won't see that on many balance sheets while they're getting away with it.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Not a chance. There would probably be a very chaotic initial period which might involve a lot of blind-eye-turning, grace periods, confused officialdom etc, but at the end of the day, if there's literally no agreement and the UK leaves the EU, the way things are done now will lose its legal underpinning. EU countries will just settle down into following the law. It wouldn't be sustainable to just ignore WTO rules and the EU's own rules and other trade agreements.

We're not going to get there though, so it's a bit like discussing what it's like in heaven.

And of course nothing can exist without a legal underpinning.

Not that any of this could happen anyway. It's just not possible.

 

[Raheem]

And of course nothing can exist without a legal underpinning.

Well, no. Not nothing. But French customs and immigration staff are not going to be told to just ignore the law from Brexit onwards. It's pointless believing in a fantasy.

 

[Toast Rider]

What exactly is the likely consequence of a hard brexit? are the scare stories legit?

 

[Kaka Tim]

What exactly is the likely consequence of a hard brexit? are the scare stories legit?

in the event of no deal i would imagine the uk and eu would hastily cobble together arrangements that prevent some of the worst aspects happening (like planes being able to land, the worst effects of border hold ups, norn iron and security stuff) - but the rest - well its partly a self fulfilling prophecy - trade tariffs and uncertainty would probably spook the markets, you'd see a run on the pound and some manufacturers would start planning to move out. I think their would be a gathering sense of crises which would lead to panic buying, shortages and shit.

in the short to medium term - i cant see how it wouldn't tip the economy into recession - its not like the UK has a huge manufacturing industry ready and primed to ship stuff over seas and the sudden imposition of tarrifs on trade would be very painful.
Given all this - i think the pressure form the industry, business, the public and the media in the run up to a "no deal" would force the government try and prevent it happening - i.e. negotiate an extension of A50 and/or 2nd ref - and the EU may play hardball.

 

[kebabking]

What exactly is the likely consequence of a hard brexit? are the scare stories legit?

Some may be - the nuclear stuff is a genuine issue for all concerned, as is medicines, and the financial stuff like pensions and health insurance, but will the sky fall in if we can't get Feta or melons for 3 months?

Rather like the indyref in Scotland, ignore the fluff on either side and ask yourself if the 6th largest economy in the world, with world leading industries in medicines, aerospace, IT etc.. is suddenly going to turn into South Sudan with famine and pestilence stalking the land - the answer, just as in Scotland, is no...

 

[MightyTibberton]

NO FETA!?!?

 

[JimW]

NO FETA!?!?

Calm down, not a feta compli just yet.

 

[Toast Rider]

in the event of no deal i would imagine the uk and eu would hastily cobble together arrangements that prevent some of the worst aspects happening (like planes being able to land, the worst effects of border hold ups, norn iron and security stuff) - but the rest - well its partly a self fulfilling prophecy - trade tariffs and uncertainty would probably spook the markets, you'd see a run on the pound and some manufacturers would start planning to move out. I think their would be a gathering sense of crises which would lead to panic buying, shortages and shit.

in the short to medium term - i cant see how it wouldn't tip the economy into recession - its not like the UK has a huge manufacturing industry ready and primed to ship stuff over seas and the sudden imposition of tarrifs on trade would be very painful.
Given all this - i think the pressure form the industry, business, the public and the media in the run up to a "no deal" would force the government try and prevent it happening - i.e. negotiate an extension of A50 and/or 2nd ref - and the EU may play hardball.

What about all the talk of food shortages and price rises and stockpiling, surely a bit apocalyptic?