ska invita
back on the other side
Hell requires some personal sacrifice but at least there's no red tape.
Is Brexit actually going to happen?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
I don't think there's anything that lawyers seem to do badly out off.
KeeperofDragons
Crazy dragon lady
Can't remember the name of the dickhead being interviewed on c4 but he reckons we won't crash out but have a no deal deal - what the fuck 
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
The RW press seem to be ramping up the criticism of the EU, angling to blame them for any kind of no deal chaos situation. I guess that’s their tack - a way of not owning the clusterfuck they championed for decades, plus increase anti-EU sentiment to keep people on-side in case any further votes happens or in case of a general election. Expect this to get more shrill and panicked.
MightyTibberton
Well-Known Member
It'll be interesting to see what happens when the Government release their official advice on "no deal" preparations, including to households, which is due to happen in August and September.
First of all interesting to see what that advice is. Is it going to be some sort of Protect and Survive thing about stocking up on tinned food?!
Interesting to see how people and the media react to whatever that advice is and what it does to public opinion on: No Deal, second ref, accepting a deal.
And interesting to see how politicians react.
I think we can expect that the ERGers will scream about another Project Fear pretty much whatever is said. And Remain/2nd Ref people will say, "I told you so". And their committed backers will remain committed backers.
Wider public opinion seems more up for grabs though, as are - I reckon - a fairly large number of MPs.
At the moment, Theresa May seems to be following the "No Deal: it's the unreasonable EU's fault" plan. I don't quite get that beyond the fact that it currently keeps the Conservative party from splitting. I do sometimes wonder if her hope is that the reality of No Deal preparations (barges of generators off Northern Ireland?!?!?!) will scare together some sort of cross party coalition of Labour, Tory and others to vote through whatever it is that the EU offer, which will be a long way short of the Chequers proposal I believe. But, as - more than two years down the line - they haven't agreed the Irish border backstop yet, I just don't know what to expect.
Plus, Raab is a committed Hard Brexiter.
I reckon we must have a Barnier pee tape.
First of all interesting to see what that advice is. Is it going to be some sort of Protect and Survive thing about stocking up on tinned food?!
Interesting to see how people and the media react to whatever that advice is and what it does to public opinion on: No Deal, second ref, accepting a deal.
And interesting to see how politicians react.
I think we can expect that the ERGers will scream about another Project Fear pretty much whatever is said. And Remain/2nd Ref people will say, "I told you so". And their committed backers will remain committed backers.
Wider public opinion seems more up for grabs though, as are - I reckon - a fairly large number of MPs.
At the moment, Theresa May seems to be following the "No Deal: it's the unreasonable EU's fault" plan. I don't quite get that beyond the fact that it currently keeps the Conservative party from splitting. I do sometimes wonder if her hope is that the reality of No Deal preparations (barges of generators off Northern Ireland?!?!?!) will scare together some sort of cross party coalition of Labour, Tory and others to vote through whatever it is that the EU offer, which will be a long way short of the Chequers proposal I believe. But, as - more than two years down the line - they haven't agreed the Irish border backstop yet, I just don't know what to expect.
Plus, Raab is a committed Hard Brexiter.
I reckon we must have a Barnier pee tape.
MightyTibberton
Well-Known Member
There are those in the Conservative Party (and UKIP) for whom No Deal will be the cash bonanza of a lifetime! Coincidentally, Rees Mogg is now selling No Deal on his radio show. The argument that they're selling is that short-term cost will be offset by long-term prosperity...
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
I wonder how the desire of Brexiters to buy cheap farm produce from the USA instead of Europe, correlates with GM-phobia ...
Selling on UK media to a disinterested or crank home audience. To outsiders it just looks like another monied English lunatic spinning bullshit.
not-bono-ever
meh
the tory party - and the rest of them - are prioritising their own survival - anyone suggesting that there will be long term gain is talking out of their shitty hypothetical arse.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Golden showers future, and it's not us doing the pissing
gosub
~#
I was going to point you at https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/toilet-rumor/ and say that actually saying hoard tins would be a fucking stupid thing to do, of corse they won't do that, then I remembered the calibre of our government, so I'll just leave it at SAYING hoard tins is a fucking stupid thing to do
Cloo
Banana for scale
Thought this tweet was quite good - there probably wouldn't be enough people who really give a shit to cause large scale ructions in the event of dumping Brexit. Not that there wouldn't be consequences.... sadly either result seems likely to either embolden or boost far-right populism. 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If Brexit were cancelled...<br><br>5% of the population would be apoplectic with rage at the betrayal <br>25% would be pretty pissed off at the waste of everyone's time <br>70% would be extremely relieved <br><br>And after a few weeks of national debate we'd all move on apart from the 5%</p>— Barnier Balls
(@davemacladd) <a href="">July 20, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If Brexit were cancelled...<br><br>5% of the population would be apoplectic with rage at the betrayal <br>25% would be pretty pissed off at the waste of everyone's time <br>70% would be extremely relieved <br><br>And after a few weeks of national debate we'd all move on apart from the 5%</p>— Barnier Balls
(@davemacladd) <a href="">July 20, 2018</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
politics of hope and love right here people
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Thought this tweet was quite good - there probably wouldn't be enough people who really give a shit to cause large scale ructions in the event of dumping Brexit. Not that there wouldn't be consequences.... sadly either result seems likely to either embolden or boost far-right populism.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If Brexit were cancelled...<br><br>5% of the population would be apoplectic with rage at the betrayal <br>25% would be pretty pissed off at the waste of everyone's time <br>70% would be extremely relieved <br><br>And after a few weeks of national debate we'd all move on apart from the 5%</p>— Barnier Balls
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I think a lot more than 5% of people would go absolutely apeshit. And it could definitely get ugly. Have you read the comments sections on non-liberal forums whenever brexit is being discussed? - the numbers of proper spittle flecked posts along the lines of "WE HAD A VOTE. YOU LOST. ITS DEMOCRACY. NOW SHUT THE FUCK UP - END OF!" - is genuinely disturbing. They will not go quietly and peacefully - and they will have a significant chunk of mps and the media encouraging them.
tbh - part of me thinks that - in the long run - crashing out with no deal may be the best outcome - as it would prove just how fucking stupid an idea it was to all but the most deluded headbangers. other wise you are going to have a "the elites sold us out/stab in the back" narrative that will fester and toxify society and politics for generations.
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MightyTibberton
Well-Known Member
There's a big difference between forum-spouting and rioting though.
gosub
~#
As much as I think they are fucking up Brexit, I do wish some effort was put into explaining how much of a disaster a reverse ferret on Brexit would be
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Obviously. But that sentiment is definitely out there and it is a widely held one - i would say its odds on that a "brexit betrayal" would be seized on by ukip (and the rest of the even further right , the tory ultras and the brexit media and that would be expressed politically and on the streets. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we saw big aggro demos, direct action like road blockades and an upsurge in right wing terror attacks.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Don’t reckon they have it in them myself. Look at all the other shit that’s been done over the last couple of decades, we’ve had one decent politically motivated riot out of it that led to a change of policy. The online gobshites bark louder than they bite. It’s not like people would immediately suffer or lose out as a consequence of it being cancelled.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
Demos perhaps, certainly direct action - but if anything the scale of support they have access to would make some kind of intervention, after a plea to protect democracy, from the US far more likely than right-wing terror attacks (at least mass-casualty attacks on civilians).
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
nobody was calling for them. if ukip, the moggites and the daily mail were calling for it cos "stab in the back" they'd be out in numbers. 200,000 turned out for the countryside alliance wank - this is much bigger. and we've already had 30K turn out for the "freedom of speech" bollocks - they have the numbers, the funding and the anger - id say its odds on.
I think there is a very real danger of the betrayed brexiters joining with the anti-muslim/immigrant far right - it plays into all whole narrative of an entitled elite trampling democracy in the name of liberal, multi cultural, immigranty, euro, NWO evilness.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
could def see more joe cox type attacks. not sure they would be able to organise themselves into an effective armed struggle group - they'd might try but the spooks would be on them pretty quick - more thomas mair and brevik type nut job attacks could def happen.
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agricola
a genuine importer of owls
Attacks by individuals can never be ruled out, but that movement as a whole has no need for a terror campaign - they would have a significant number of MPs (probably enough to mean they had the support of the Tory Party once it had been purged of the traitors responsible for the betrayal), most of the tabloid press and the current US regime. If the alternative government was Corbyn they'd probably have the support of the financial sector and establishment as well.
Humberto
bitch
For all this, I don't even see much pressure from the left. Even to the extent that no one wants to fuck with the right (not necessarily on here). Instead of say, talking about pro left issues post brexit. e.g. not flogging the NHS to private interests (which is underway and being attempted), not allowing the right and far right to dominate the discourse in terms of shouting down anyone who doesn't collect photographs of royal weddings/christenings/births/birthdays/jubilees with dogmatic 'Brexit means Brexit' shite, when most people know that we are not governed by what is in the interests of the majority, and that this will affect the outcomes. Not sure where that ramble leads myself.
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