Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Winot]

Seems possible. Norway option will come into focus. Mostly thing will carry on as normal. The sky won't fall in.

Fine if the Norway option is adopted before end of March 2019. But then that’s not no deal is it?

 

[magneze]

Fine if the Norway option is adopted before end of March 2019. But then that’s not no deal is it?

Clearly.

 

[ska invita]

Seems possible. Norway option will come into focus. Mostly thing will carry on as normal. The sky won't fall in.

Made a change from all the rest of the articles promising chas, no medicine, food etc.

Its definitely one of the only 3 options still possible:
1. Crash out WWF Rules (no holds barred)
2. Mass capitulation and compromise into some kind of Eurovision Style Model
3. Not leave the EU at all/reverse article 50

I can imagine circumstances that would lead to all 3 of those, but each carries a massive party political and social price.
I dont think anyone can say with much confidence which will happen. Some sort of #2 Simon Jenkins Norway Model is probably just about in the lead but i wouldn't bet the farm on it, especially as it will be the Tories most 'betraying' their key supporters by so doing. Which could most easily translate into election losing for them.

Kaka Tim's link above has 4 options, but its much the same in practice

Scenario One: Brexit Goes Ahead

If Theresa May strikes a deal with the EU and it passes at Westminster – and at the European Parliament and European Council – then the UK will be set to leave the EU on 29th March 2019. This would mean an Irish backstop has been agreed as part of the overarching withdrawal agreement and a political declaration setting out the framework for the future relationship was also agreed. In such a scenario, either the Tory Brexiters and remainers have all stayed on board and voted for May’s deal or, much less likely, some opposition party votes have helped May through. The extent of economic damage to the UK and the extent of democratic damage through becoming a ‘rule-taker’ will depend on the deal – but there is no harmless deal to be had either economically or politically.

Scenario Two: Deal Falls at Westminster

If May strikes a deal with the EU that is rejected at Westminster, then the UK will face a major political and economic crisis with substantial turbulence in stock markets and the pound likely to fall sharply. A general election may need to be called rapidly – perhaps to take place in early 2019. Meanwhile, the government should then ask the EU for a delay in Article 50 – which in the face of a chaotic ‘no deal’ Brexit, the EU may agree to. Either as an alternative to a general election or possibly following a general election, there may be increased public and political pressure for a further EU referendum.

Scenario Three: No Deal with the EU

If May is unable to shift closer to EU positions, and at the same time to agree an acceptable Irish backstop, then there may be ‘no deal’ for Westminster to vote on. Both sides will want to avoid such a chaotic outcome and the question of extending Article 50 may come up if there is no agreement on a deal by the end of 2018. In the face of ‘no deal’, there will be pressure from the public and at Westminster for a solution to the ensuing crisis – whether for a general election, a further EU referendum or a new negotiating approach to the EU.

Scenario Four: the UK stays in the EU

This scenario could result from a range of developments. Depending on how turbulent UK politics becomes in the coming weeks and months, there might be a majority (where there isn’t now) at Westminster to hold a further EU referendum – whether a repeat referendum or one on a deal if it has been struck. Or, such a referendum might be a condition of LibDem support for a minority Labour government after a general election – though it would probably need SNP support for such a position too. Public opinion might shift sharply towards ‘remain’, both increasing pressure for a further vote and leading to a clear ‘remain’ result in such a vote. Political divisions in England in particular would nonetheless continue. Politically, the EU would need to support such an outcome.

Overall, it is clear that unless May produces a deal that gets backing at Westminster, then political volatility and divisions will continue probably resulting in a general election and a request to extend Article 50 and possibly a further EU referendum. If a deal does pass at Westminster, the UK will be embarking on a path towards marginalisation in Europe, to less global influence, and to economic self-harm. Domestic political divisions would continue as EU-UK talks moved onto the future relationship – and as the Irish backstop remained as one possible route ahead. In Scotland, pressures for a further independence referendum would probably grow. Staying in the EU looks like the sanest path but political divisions in England in particular would remain deep. There is no easy escape route for the UK from its turbulent Brexit path – and the English populist genie that the 2016 referendum let out will not easily go back in its bottle.

Theres going to be a lot of punditry and overconfident guessing between now and the vote thats for sure

 

[DexterTCN]

What will the T be in EFTA (even though it's not happening it's just another desperate rumour)?

What will the UK be bringing to the table, what is going to open the trade doors with Norway or any other place...what are the assets, the goods, the high or low value reason/s for trade?

 

[Kaka Tim]

like most things jenkins writes - he's pulled that out of his arse for reasons of click bait.

 

[Crispy]

I consider Simon Jenkins to be a pretty reliable weather vane for the exact opposite of my own views.

 

[2hats]

WWF

Pandas take control. Tariffs on everything except bamboo.

 

[DotCommunist]

Pandas take control. Tariffs on everything except bamboo.

WWF?

 

[teuchter]

I hope everyone enjoyed the Tony Blair interview on Newsnight tonight.

 

[Riklet]

Went and made tea rather than listen to the cunt blathering on.

If hes so concerned about Brexit maybe he shouldnt have (continued to) fuck Britain up so much that the necessary conditions were created.

I reckon he will launch a new political party by the end of the Autumn and this is his firdt step in plugging it.

 

[paolo]

It now seems to drift back and forth. Day by now. At some points hour by hour.

“Taking back control”

 

[Raheem]

Went and made tea rather than listen to the cunt blathering on.

If hes so concerned about Brexit maybe he shouldnt have (continued to) fuck Britain up so much that the necessary conditions were created.

I reckon he will launch a new political party by the end of the Autumn and this is his firdt step in plugging it.

New book is much more likely.

If he really cared, he could always offer to have "...and Tony Blair will self-castrate in a special broadcast just after Antiques Roadshow" tagged onto the end of the remain option in the second referendum. That really would stop everyone bickering.

 

[ska invita]

WWF?

This is the correct WWF. Pandas

 

[rutabowa]

This is the correct WWF. Pandas

I will never forgive the WoWiFu for stealing the real wwf's name.

 

[ska invita]

WoTnoW?

 

[ska invita]

Theresa Mays duck and cover no deal announced bundles today are surely an attempt to play chicken with the EU, right?

 

[kebabking]

Theresa Mays duck and cover no deal announced bundles today are surely an attempt to play chicken with the EU, right?

Not really - she thinks, with good reason, that the Irish Government has taken leave of its senses, and given the priority the EU has given to the views of the Irish Government, and that it will simply be impossible to arrive at any kind of sensible deal while either of those two situations remain in place.

 

[agricola]

Theresa Mays duck and cover no deal announced bundles today are surely an attempt to play chicken with the EU, right?

I can understand the wish for her to play chicken but where would she get a roasting pan big enough?

 

[gosub]

Fine if the Norway option is adopted before end of March 2019. But then that’s not no deal is it?

If by say November things haven't moved forward then the position will change to push for extension of article 50 period


Not bothered reading Jenkins

 

[2hats]

WWF?

 

[hash tag]

^^^ ViolentPanda ^^^

 

[SpackleFrog]

Don’t worry, a no-deal Brexit won’t be allowed to happen | Simon Jenkins

Pretty reasonable article.

Simon Jenkins is obviously a complete prick but he *may* have a point there. If Britain leaves the EU on a 'no deal' basis then we won't know what is or isn't supposed to change with regards to trade, immigration or whatever else. Therefore arguably if workers at the borders are not given new instructions, they're not going to do anything differently. In theory we will be trading under WTO rules and presumably migration rules for EU migrants will in theory be the same as for non-EU migrants. But EU states will not instruct their border officials to begin collecting tariffs or restricting British immigration, because its in the EU's interest for Brexit to mean very little and leave Britain looking stupid with an unchanged relationship. Whatever government is then put in place, it will have to either choose to begin imposing tariffs on goods coming in from Europe and imposing controls on migrants, or to do nothing. If they choose to act they will face action in kind from the EU, as well as a massive public backlash domestically. If they don't, then actually Jenkins scenario isn't impossible.

Can anyone think of a free trade area in history that has been dismantled successfully? Perhaps if we can that would serve as a useful guide!

 

[sleaterkinney]

Companies that trade across borders need a bit more legal certainty than that.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Companies that trade across borders need a bit more legal certainty than that.

I think you think business cares rather more about legality than business actually does.

 

[Raheem]

But EU states will not instruct their border officials to begin collecting tariffs or restricting British immigration, because its in the EU's interest for Brexit to mean very little and leave Britain looking stupid with an unchanged relationship.

Not a chance. There would probably be a very chaotic initial period which might involve a lot of blind-eye-turning, grace periods, confused officialdom etc, but at the end of the day, if there's literally no agreement and the UK leaves the EU, the way things are done now will lose its legal underpinning. EU countries will just settle down into following the law. It wouldn't be sustainable to just ignore WTO rules and the EU's own rules and other trade agreements.

We're not going to get there though, so it's a bit like discussing what it's like in heaven.

 

[MickiQ]

I think you think business cares rather more about legality than business actually does.

yes and no they may not feel any sense of wrong doing about not following the rules but they don't want to be stuck with a massive bill for unpaid duty 6 months down the line, doesn't look good on the balance sheet.

 

[Poi E]

I

yes and no they may not feel any sense of wrong doing about not following the rules but they don't want to be stuck with a massive bill for unpaid duty 6 months down the line, doesn't look good on the balance sheet.

Trade will involve a huge increase in indemnities sought by parties to cover transactions occuring in a legal vacuum. Good for lawyers and insurers.

 

[ska invita]

what it's like in heaven.

they've got bendy bananas

 

[Raheem]

they've got bendy bananas

They also ask quite a lot of questions at passport control, from what I understand.

 

[DexterTCN]

So...the UK will just smuggle everything in and out?

And nothing's really going to happen anyway?