Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Winot]

I can't be bothered to look into this latest deal in any detail but I assume it's basically just kicking all the real issues down the line a bit, to the end of the transition period, rather than actually resolving any of them?

In which case an indefinite period of transitional purgatory seems the likely outcome. By the time we're done transitioning the EU will probably be crumbling anyway.

I haven't read the deal, but the commentary I've seen suggests that the UK has agreed to pretty much all of the EU's demands apart from the NI border which has been kicked down the road as you say.

The UK has won the great victory of being able to negotiate trade agreements with 3rd parties during the transitional period but in practice it is thought this is unlikely to happen because 3rd parties will want to know what relationship we have with the EU before they sign.

Oh and we've left the EU in charge of the fish which has annoyed Rees Mogg.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Semantics, but I think tipping-points are foreseeable, by definition. You can also have unexpected step-changes, which are not.

I think it's fair to say that the EU is not going to collapse into dust in the next week. Will it be unchanged in five years though? Too many factors in play to say one way or another. It's definitely possible to imagine a scenario where the EU project becomes unviable in that kind of time scale.

 

[Raheem]

I think it's fair to say that the EU is not going to collapse into dust in the next week. Will it be unchanged in five years though? Too many factors in play to say one way or another. It's definitely possible to imagine a scenario where the EU project becomes unviable in that kind of time scale.

Yes, not unimaginable, but then lots of things are not unimaginable. But there's no data to suggest Europe is on an existential Eurosceptic trend, which is what the article linked tries to make out. In terms of Eurozone reform, it's the least of the problems, really.

 

[MickiQ]

I haven't read the deal, but the commentary I've seen suggests that the UK has agreed to pretty much all of the EU's demands apart from the NI border which has been kicked down the road as you say.

The UK has won the great victory of being able to negotiate trade agreements with 3rd parties during the transitional period but in practice it is thought this is unlikely to happen because 3rd parties will want to know what relationship we have with the EU before they sign.

Oh and we've left the EU in charge of the fish which has annoyed Rees Mogg.

The last 5 words justify an awful lot of pain, If he's against it, I'm pretty much for it even though I realise this is a petty attitude for me to take.
The NI border problem is one that is going to cause endless pain, whilst there are several workable solutions to it there isn't one that won't end up creating at least as many problems as it solves or won't piss people off.
Mayhem can't decide who she cares about the least despite the whole point of being PM is making decisions.

 

[toblerone3]

So is Brexit actually going to happen? Has the transition agreement changed the odds in any way in your opinion? I'm not convinced it has.

 

[toblerone3]

Its jigged about with the decision point pushing it further along the track and also awareness of the full negative effects of Brexit, the realisation that Britain cannot have its cake and eat it. This moves the effective decision point further along the electoral cycle and also potentially informs it with more information about the paucity of economic benefits that can be obtained by free trade arrangements with countries outside the EU.

 

[Kaka Tim]

It looks very much like we are heading for BINO - (brexit in name only) - which is completely pointless (as it offers not one single advantage over the present arrangement) , but will still result in considerable disruption and costs. This is because it is the only politically possible outcome.
The question is weather the pointlessness of the exercise will result enough people arguing to call the whole thing off as a complete waste of time.

 

[bemused]

It looks very much like we are heading for BINO - (brexit in name only) - which is completely pointless (as it offers not one single advantage over the present arrangement) , but will still result in considerable disruption and costs. This is because it is the only politically possible outcome.

Sush .... let us get our heads down and get through it. Once it's over they won't be any more referendums, UKIP is about to go bust (hahahaha) and anyone moaning about the EU once we're done will be considered a boring twat.

 

[philosophical]

This week was the anniversary of Warrington and we have been reminded of the Funeral Murders.
If brexit leads to a return of that kind of thing, anybody moaning about it certainly won't be considered a boring twat by everybody.

 

[butchersapron]

Far be it from you to suggest that Brexit would inevitably entail something like the corporal killings of course.

 

[andysays]

This seek was the anniversary of Warrington and we have been reminded of the Funeral Murders.
If brexit leads to a return of that kind of thing, anybody moaning about it certainly won't be considered a boring twat by everybody.

Fuck off, you boring trolling twat

 

[philosophical]

Fuck off, you boring trolling twat

Are you in charge?
You are entitled to call my post boring of course.
However I am curious to know your authority to tell me to fuck off or your qualifications to sit in judgement on twattishness, as far as I can tell my post was perfectly reasonable

 

[mojo pixy]

Everyone here has the right, it happens all the time.

I'd get used to it if I were you, especially if you mean to go on as you have been

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

as far as I can tell my post was perfectly reasonable

Still a massive wanker then.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Fuck is he still going, I had dropped out for at least a week !!!

 

[DexterTCN]

Sush .... let us get our heads down and get through it. Once it's over they won't be any more referendums, UKIP is about to go bust (hahahaha) and anyone moaning about the EU once we're done will be considered a boring twat.

ukip gained its objective, a bit weird to laugh at them when they won

you know they've just all gone back to being tories, yeah?

 

[Pickman's model]

ukip gained its objective, a bit weird to laugh at them when they won

you know they've just all gone back to being tories, yeah?

What do you think ukip's objective is? Oblivion?

 

[Pickman's model]

Are you in charge?
You are entitled to call my post boring of course.
However I am curious to know your authority to tell me to fuck off or your qualifications to sit in judgement on twattishness, as far as I can tell my post was perfectly reasonable

All of us sit in judgment of twattishness but we rarely find someone like you who admits the offence

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

ukip gained its objective, a bit weird to laugh at them when they won

you know they've just all gone back to being tories, yeah?

Define “they”

 

[bemused]

ukip gained its objective, a bit weird to laugh at them when they won

I'm laughing at them because they are going bankrupt after using a child abuse scandal to libel their political rivals.

 

[philosophical]

All of us sit in judgment of twattishness but we rarely find someone like you who admits the offence

Offence?

 

[Pickman's model]

Offence?

Indeed

 

[philosophical]

Indeed

Eggshells around Picknose who is outrage in search of a bogeyman.

 

[Pickman's model]

Eggshells around Picknose who is outrage in search of a bogeyman.

why not give the faq a read, and i'd direct your attention specifically to the bit about not pissing about with usernames

 

[Winot]

Eggshells around Picknose who is outrage in search of a bogeyman.

 

[philosophical]

why not give the faq a read, and i'd direct your attention specifically to the bit about not pissing about with usernames

Maintaining standards now?

 

[Pickman's model]

Maintaining standards now?

Yeh little things like not lying about other people, not putting them down as e.g. racist without evidence, not pissing about with usernames, things you might give a try sometime.

 

[philosophical]

Yeh little things like not lying about other people, not putting them down as e.g. racist without evidence, not pissing about with usernames, things you might give a try sometime.

I have not lied about anyone, and the context of the 'racist' stuff is not as you imply, otherwise carry on as I see you have taken things personally.

 

[Pickman's model]

I have not lied about anyone, and the context of the 'racist' stuff is not as you imply, otherwise carry on as I see you have taken things personally.

you lied about me. repeatedly. perhaps your memory's not what it was, so i'll remind you: i made no threats to you, despite your repeated insistence such threats existed. and if you look back you'll see i called this lying about me lying at the time.

 

[philosophical]

Sigh.
You denied you were making threats at a time that I felt you were making threats. Remember?
When you say lying about 'other people' you really mean you don't you?