Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[SpookyFrank]

What makes you think that Cameron thought that there was only one potential outcome?

The fact he gambled his political career on it.

 

[Winot]

So there should have been more questions on the referendum voting paper?

I think referendums - if they are held - only really work with a simple yes/no question.

There are various ways in which the option of leaving the EU could have been presented to the people. The first would have been for a political party to have it in its manifesto and win a GE on that ticket. That would have been my preference.

Another option would be for the two sides of the debate (there were official organisations remember) to have each been required to present a manifesto for what happened after the vote. Obviously it wouldn't work like a parliamentary party manifesto, and I'm not sure how it could have been made binding, but it would at least have shone a light on the post-Brexit scenarios and forced engagement with them.

A better alternative (if you were going to have a referendum) would be to make clear from the outset that there would be two. The first would be to require the Government to set up a Royal Commission (or something) to come back in a fixed time period with a plan for leaving the EU. Then a second referendum would vote on whether to implement that plan - yes or no.

I'm sure that holes can be picked in this - it's just a few ideas off the top of my head.

 

[teuchter]

Indeed, implicit in somebody asking you for your preference in a decision is the understanding that once you have expressed your preference, the person asking has a way of making it workable. Otherwise, it's a false choice. It's pure pass-agg, in fact.

The UK government asked the UK people whether they would prefer to be in or out of the EU. If the UK government didn't have a way of making one of those options workable in practice, they shouldn't have asked the question. You can't blame people for stating a preference when they are asked for one, based on whatever factors are important to them at the time.

Sounds like an argument for having a second referendum. Voters stated preference for an option. Turns out that option is unworkable. Not voters' fault they were given a false choice. Therefore say sorry to them and offer a chance to vote again, based on workable options.

 

[andysays]

Sounds like an argument for having a second referendum. Voters stated preference for an option. Turns out that option is unworkable. Not voters' fault they were given a false choice. Therefore say sorry to them and offer a chance to vote again, based on workable options.

The fact that the team currently tasked with sorting it out are making a right pig's ear of it doesn't mean it is unworkable.

 

[teuchter]

The fact that the team currently tasked with sorting it out are making a right pig's ear of it doesn't mean it is unworkable.

And therefore what?

 

[andysays]

And therefore what?

And therefore your assertion that it's unworkable is typical teuchter bollocks

 

[teuchter]

And therefore your assertion that it's unworkable is typical teuchter bollocks

I wasn't asserting it.

 

[DexterTCN]

And therefore your assertion that it's unworkable is typical teuchter bollocks

How is it fixed?

 

[Pickman's model]

The fact that the team currently tasked with sorting it out are making a right pig's ear of it doesn't mean it is unworkable.

I'm hard put to see how the shower in government could avoid making a right pig's ear of it when they make a right pig's ear of everything else

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Another option would be for the two sides of the debate (there were official organisations remember) to have each been required to present a manifesto for what happened after the vote.

dunno really.

I don't think there is / was a single vision for the outcome either way. Lexit or little england racist brexit? EU as protectors of workers rights or EU for more neoliberalism?

 

[kabbes]

Sounds like an argument for having a second referendum. Voters stated preference for an option. Turns out that option is unworkable. Not voters' fault they were given a false choice. Therefore say sorry to them and offer a chance to vote again, based on workable options.

This is one possibility. I’m certainly not against the idea of a second referendum, although if we’re going to have one, we need to make sure this time it’s nailed on what is being voted for, because there is no point just having another one about a principle.

 

[MickiQ]

This is one possibility. I’m certainly not against the idea of a second referendum, although if we’re going to have one, we need to make sure this time it’s nailed on what is being voted for, because there is no point just having another one about a principle.

The problem with a second referendum is going to be what options are on the slip, Will it be on the terms of the deal? Any deal has to be negotiated, neither the EU nor the UK government get to dictate the terms of the deal, it will have to be agreed between them so what will the alternative be? Accept the deal or crash out with no deal? Accept the deal or stay in? (for which the UK will need the agreement of all other member states)
Accept the deal or ask to stay in temporarily whilst we try and get another one and subject that to a third referendum?
I was opposed to the first referendum on the grounds that it was a blatantly cynical effort by one man to rally his party, I'm opposed to a second on the grounds it will just stir more shit that can't be predicted or controlled.
We need the Govt to stop messing around, stop talking through its arse about red lines, accept it won't get everything it wants (or that the public want for that matter) and negotiate seriously.
The Labour Party needs to start taking this seriously and get a position it can rally around, I know sitting on the sidelines watching the Tories eat each other is fun but the country needs leadership from somewhere and we aren't getting it from the shower in Downing St.
It would have been better if we weren't in this position in the first place but here we are so let's try and make the best of it.

 

[Winot]

dunno really.

I don't think there is / was a single vision for the outcome either way. Lexit or little england racist brexit? EU as protectors of workers rights or EU for more neoliberalism?

I think you’ve just put your finger on why the referendum was a bad idea.

 

[Pwerus]

I was opposed to the first referendum on the grounds that it was a blatantly cynical effort by one man to rally his party, I'm opposed to a second on the grounds it will just stir more shit that can't be predicted or controlled.

The Labour Party needs to start taking this seriously and get a position it can rally around, I know sitting on the sidelines watching the Tories eat each other is fun but the country needs leadership from somewhere and we aren't getting it from the shower in Downing St.
It would have been better if we weren't in this position in the first place but here we are so let's try and make the best of it.

I feel like the Labour Party has been less resistant to Brexit than the conservatives. Knowing their stances, it's hard to imagine Labour being more pro-Brexit than the conservatives, but I refuse to believe that the conservatives can possibly make the same mistakes of publicly announcing what deals they'll get from the EU and what the EU wants without actually checking with them first. It's got to be a deliberate attempt to prevent Brexit, particularly considering David Cameron only promised it in his last general election because he was scared of how UKIP was growing, and wanted to steal support. Meanwhile Corbyn has taken his "I didn't want it, but that ship has sailed, so might as well get it over with" stance.

 

[billbond]

This is one possibility. I’m certainly not against the idea of a second referendum, although if we’re going to have one, we need to make sure this time it’s nailed on what is being voted for, because there is no point just having another one about a principle.

And if that referendum(it wont happen) result comes out to stay
Then another should take place
Brexiters will be out the next day protesting like the EU lovers did
Best of 3................and on and on

 

[Pickman's model]

And if that referendum(it wont happen) result comes out to stay
Then another should take place
Brexiters will be out the next day protesting like the EU lovers did
Best of 3................and on and on

Perhaps the easiest way to resolve this is the way the government has chosen which is to do fuck all to prepare for it and then go oh noes we can't leave cos we've not done the prep

 

[billbond]

Perhaps the easiest way to resolve this is the way the government has chosen which is to do fuck all to prepare for it and then go oh noes we can't leave cos we've not done the prep

Terrible the way it has been handled
Many people on other sites ive looked on are saying "thank god for this Russia "incident" at least its put this constant talk of Brexit on the the side"

 

[Pickman's model]

Terrible the way it has been handled
Many people on other sites ive looked on are saying "thank god for this Russia "incident" at least its put this constant talk of Brexit on the the side"

Yeh thank god for nerve gas

 

[William of Walworth]

"thank god for this Russia "incident" at least its put this constant talk of Brexit on the the side"

Does this amount to a very basic level of Tory competence**?

(**With Putin's assistance obvs -- I'm no conspiraloon )

 

[pocketscience]

The problem with a second referendum is going to be what options are on the slip, Will it be on the terms of the deal? Any deal has to be negotiated, neither the EU nor the UK government get to dictate the terms of the deal, it will have to be agreed between them so what will the alternative be? Accept the deal or crash out with no deal? Accept the deal or stay in? (for which the UK will need the agreement of all other member states)

By the same token, if brexit were to somehow be overturned by any type of second ref, brexit voters would be justified to argue for having a referendum for every decision the EU subsequently makes on its impending road to federalism. What happens then, when (and in all likely hood it would happen) the UK votes to reject each of the steps along that road?

 

[philosophical]

 

[agricola]

On a very quick read of the transition agreement it looks like we have surrendered.

 

[Gromit]

I’ve held onto the slim hope Brexit might fall apart and not happen.

This transition agreement has destroyed that hope. Oh shit the fucking idiots are really going to do this!

 

[Pickman's model]

On a very quick read of the transition agreement it looks like we have surrendered.

we are now the cheese-eating surrender monkeys of europe

 

[Pickman's model]

 

[William of Walworth]

On a very quick read of the transition agreement** it looks like we have surrendered.

**BBC report on this

Text of actual draft agreement (PDF)

 

[William of Walworth]

The above links are just for peoples' easy reference -- I haven't had time to look at the detail ....

 

[philosophical]

The DUP won't accept the 'backstop' suggestion.

 

[andysays]

The DUP won't accept the 'backstop' suggestion.

Oh well, if the DUP won't accept it, we'd better just accept that we'll have to stay in the EU then...

 

[kabbes]

Oh well, if the DUP won't accept it, we'd better just accept that we'll have to stay in the EU then...

Don't you see? A crucial part of the narrative is that there is no possible solution to the NI border issue. Any mooted solution must therefore by definition be not possible. QED.