Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Kaka Tim]

He still said it.

but nobody has made much of this argument since - is he basing this on a supposed shortage of migrant labour? cant see the logic TBH. I thought the tory hard brexit wing nuts see the whole thing as an opportunity to strip workers rights and lower wages to make the uk more "competetive".

 

[mx wcfc]

The Tories will make damned sure that there is a sufficient flow of labour to keep workers wages down post Brexit. There will be bureaucracy and work permits and people treated like shit, but capitalism will not allow a shortage of labour to push up workers wages.

 

[sealion]

is he basing this on a supposed shortage of migrant labour? cant see the logic TBH.

I presume so. Farmers here in Sussex are having to offer more money to get workers in.

 

[sealion]

The Tories will make damned sure that there is a sufficient flow of labour to keep workers wages down post Brexit. There will be bureaucracy and work permits and people treated like shit, but capitalism will not allow a shortage of labour to push up workers wages.

How long before most of this work is automated anyway ? I'm not sure anyone will have a manual job sooner or later.

 

[sealion]

The Tories will make damned sure that there is a sufficient flow of labour to keep workers wages down post Brexit.

Who ever is in power will.

 

[mx wcfc]

How long before most of this work is automated anyway ? I'm not sure anyone will have a manual job sooner or later.

It is not just manual work that is under threat. I am seeing people who are trying to reduce white collar jobs to apps run by AI as well. And office jobs have been automated and cut by computerisation for years.

Capitalism is driving to reduce the reward to labour constantly - witness the cuts in till staff and their replacement with self service in supermarkets, witness the drive towards self driving cars to put cabbies out of work.

Of course, capitalism also needs consumers, and if we are all out of work, we can't buy anything....

Capitalism will eat itself, but a lot of people will get truely fucked over in the process.

 

[sealion]

It is not just manual work that is under threat.

I know. I jokingly suggested to my son, that he trains to be a barber and fucks off uni and saves us all some money. Frightening if you sat down and listed all the trades/ careers that probably won't exist sooner or later.

Of course, capitalism also needs consumers, and if we are all out of work, we can't buy anything...

It's an interesting one!

Capitalism will eat itself,

I keep hearing this. When ? Got any good news on this one ?

 

[paolo]

How long before most of this work is automated anyway ? I'm not sure anyone will have a manual job sooner or later.

Picking work on farms is difficult to automate cost effectively. Decent pickers can earn £15+ an hour, and they’re still more cost effective than machines.

 

[sealion]

Picking work on farms is difficult to automate cost effectively. Decent pickers can earn £15+ an hour, and they’re still more cost effective than machines.

Thats good to hear.

 

[mx wcfc]

I keep hearing this. When ? Got any good news on this one ?

Well, I think that was Marx's view, but if I hear anything I'll let you know, comrade!

 

[paolo]

Thats good to hear.

The problematic thing, in a Brexit context, is that in East Anglia at least, there is high employment. Native brits do not want this kind of £15 an hour work. They have other choices.

If - and it *is* and if - the tipping point for automation is lower than the tipping point for local labour take up (by way of increased pay), then the jobs simply disappear, rather than being taken up UK citizens.

I have no idea how it will play out.

 

[MightyTibberton]

Picking work on farms is difficult to automate cost effectively. Decent pickers can earn £15+ an hour, and they’re still more cost effective than machines.

They are working on it though:

What this apple-picking robot means for the future of farm workers

Fruit picking has been a migrant thing from well before the EU hadn't it? Just internal migrants. Those famous East Enders having a holiday in the hop fields. Where I'm from a lot of the fruit harvest was picked by Travellers when I was a kid.

I wonder if - in the same way that rich, powerful professions allow themselves to organise and put up all manner of barriers to entry while stripping those rights from the less well off - there will be some moves made against robots and AI now they're moving up the food chain. I think lawyers and journalists are under threat now. Or will that only happen when Robocop 5 decides President Ivanka serves no purpose to it.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I remember reading somewhere that a lot of the more low skill low pay jobs are safe from automation - a lot of crop picking would be difficult to automate also care work, catering, labouring - its actually a bit further up the chain where it makes more impact.
As with all technology it has the capacity to improve lives - (lets face it - things like delivery and taxi driving are not fun and rewarding jobs, nor is bank teller or supermarket shop assistant) but not if deployed mainly for profit.

 

[teuchter]

People seem to be talking about automation at the moment as if it's some kind of new trend, rather than what's been going on since the industrial revolution.

 

[Raheem]

People seem to be talking about automation at the moment as if it's some kind of new trend, rather than what's been going on since the industrial revolution.

...although not at a uniform rate of acceleration.

 

[paolo]

People seem to be talking about automation at the moment as if it's some kind of new trend, rather than what's been going on since the industrial revolution.

Sure. It’s in the context of Brexit though. What areas of employment might be reduced if labour costs rise as a result of Brexit? Which ones will the number of jobs be unaffected?

 

[bimble]

Let us pause to commemorate it's one year today since this was front page of the Mail.

 

[Smangus]

Gag.

 

[Pickman's model]

Let us pause to commemorate it's one year today since this was front page of the Mail.
View attachment 125583

Yeh steel but rusty not stainless

 

[Pickman's model]

Let us pause to commemorate it's one year today since this was front page of the Mail.
View attachment 125583

She should have jumped

 

[MightyTibberton]

I remember reading somewhere that a lot of the more low skill low pay jobs are safe from automation - a lot of crop picking would be difficult to automate also care work, catering, labouring - its actually a bit further up the chain where it makes more impact.
As with all technology it has the capacity to improve lives - (lets face it - things like delivery and taxi driving are not fun and rewarding jobs, nor is bank teller or supermarket shop assistant) but not if deployed mainly for profit.

It will be deployed mainly for profit.

Though I have seen universal basic income being raised more and more as a possible response.

 

[Crispy]

Though I have seen universal basic income being raised more and more as a possible response.

UBI will be the final nail in the coffin of the welfare state. Everyone gets their "free" money and they're "free" to spend it on whatever "public services" they need.

The options are luxury automated communism or cyberpunk dystopia.

 

[mojo pixy]

UBI will be the final nail in the coffin of the welfare state. Everyone gets their "free" money and they're "free" to spend it on whatever "public services" they need.

It's luxury automated communism or cyberpunk dystopia.

Then it becomes clear that having a filling done will cost ~1month's UBI payment and that if you want a decent doctor or urgent surgery you'll have to get a job to be able to afford it...

I wonder what accommodation options will available for people on UBI too, and how much the average monthly rent will be as a proportion of UBI etc

Sorry, wrong thread, but whenever the idea of Universal Basic Income is mentioned it scares the bejeesus out of me.

 

[sealion]

Let us pause to commemorate it's one year today since this was front page of the Mail.

Let us pause to commemorate it's one year today since this was front page of the Mail.
View attachment 125583

Looking back at the guardians headlines is good for a laugh too! I havn't seen an aeroplane since we voted

 

[sealion]

Our homes will be worthless and war is likely. What have these wacists done to our cosy lives

 

[Pickman's model]

Our homes will be worthless and war is likely. What have these wacists done to our cosy lives

the little girl's thinking "daddy's a fucking loon. why have mummy and daddy forced this humiliation on us?"

 

[Yossarian]

Our homes will be worthless and war is likely. What have these wacists done to our cosy lives

I wish we could see who or what he's shouting at - is it the concept of Brexit itself? Or maybe it's these counter-demonstrators, one of which looks about ready to hit somebody with his Brexit stick.

 

[sealion]

one of which looks about ready to hit somebody with his Brexit stick.

It looks nothing of the sort

 

[sealion]

the little girl's thinking "daddy's a fucking loon. why have mummy and daddy forced this humiliation on us?"

That's without bringing his attire in to the equation

 

[sealion]

This patronising div takes some beating