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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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It didn't really *migrate* to the Tories though. In the main, people who didn't stay loyal to UKIP in the GE reverted to their previous voting behaviour. The theory that UKIP would be a stepping-stone for Labour voters to become Tory voters didn't play out.
You got evidence of the bolded part? I mean I think it's probably pretty accurate (the Tory+UKIP vote in safe Labour seats is often pretty constant over the last 3 elections) but I've not seen any actual data that has directly shown it.

But even if we accept that it doesn't alter the fact that bemused was talking nonsense, the movement (back) to the Conservatives of former UKIP voters was a significant cause of the formers increased vote. It also means that any dropping off from Brexit by the Tories opens up space on their flank to UKIP.
 
Loads about it if you google here It's time to recognise the truth – a trade deal with India means concessions on immigration for example. They are going to want consessions on immigration for any deal to happen.
that whole article is based on one quote from Modi:
“Education is vital for our students and will define our engagement in a shared future. We must therefore encourage greater mobility and participation of young people in education and research opportunities.”
going from "greater mobility" (for students) to freedom of movement is an almighty leap.
Even Indian negotiators wouldn't be so stupid to expect anything more than a visa quota increase for any FTA. They have a 1.25bn population ffs. total nonsense.
 
that whole article is based on one quote from Modi:
going from "greater mobility" (for students) to freedom of movement is an almighty leap.
Even Indian negotiators wouldn't be so stupid to expect anything more than a visa quota increase for any FTA. They have a 1.25bn population ffs. total nonsense.
Always shows the hidden swamped with a different culture of much of anti-brexit thought.
 
going from "greater mobility" (for students) to freedom of movement is an almighty leap.
Even Indian negotiators wouldn't be so stupid to expect anything more than a visa quota increase for any FTA. They have a 1.25bn population ffs. total nonsense.
It has long annoyed the UK Asian community that they cannot easily bring in people to do lower paid jobs in their businesses & also family members. In any trade deal that will be an issue.
 
It has long annoyed the UK Asian community that they cannot easily bring in people to do lower paid jobs in their businesses & also family members. In any trade deal that will be an issue.
That's not freedom of movement though is it. Using the FoM phrase for a potential Indian trade agreement on a brexit thread where we all know exactly what Freedom of Movement implies (Eu context) is misleading at best.
 
That's not freedom of movement though is it. Using the FoM phrase for a potential Indian trade agreement on a brexit thread where we all know exactly what Freedom of Movement implies (Eu context) is misleading at best.
Look at it in the context that the leave voters never getting the brexit they want as I was alluding to earlier. Business in this country is addicted to cheap migrant labour. If they cannot get cheap labour from Europe they will get it elsewhere. The right wing hard brexiteers want a low tax cheap labour economy. If trade deals are made with rest of world they will be happy to bring in as many migrants as they need to replace the European migrants.
 
Look at it in the context that the leave voters never getting the brexit they want as I was alluding to earlier. Business in this country is addicted to cheap migrant labour. If they cannot get cheap labour from Europe they will get it elsewhere. The right wing hard brexiteers want a low tax cheap labour economy. If trade deals are made with rest of world they will be happy to bring in as many migrants as they need to replace the European migrants.

Yep - Its pretty clear that brexit will NOT mean an end, or even a reduction, in the numbers of foreign workers - the anti-immigrant faction of the brexit vote were sold a pup on that score.
 
Look at it in the context that the leave voters never getting the brexit they want as I was alluding to earlier. Business in this country is addicted to cheap migrant labour. If they cannot get cheap labour from Europe they will get it elsewhere. The right wing hard brexiteers want a low tax cheap labour economy. If trade deals are made with rest of world they will be happy to bring in as many migrants as they need to replace the European migrants.
'Bring in' - FoM implies 'let in'.
 
'Bring in' - FoM implies 'let in'.
I think you are splitting hairs. A good amount of EU migrant workers are “brought in” through labour agencies to do specific work from farms to Sports Direct. If you live in a leave area like me listen to leave voters around you or listen to local radio phone ins. They blame everything from NHS waiting lists to the housing shortage on migration. Some of the phone in callers get so racist they get cut off. The racists did not become racist overnight. Decades ago they were railing against migration from the Indian subcontinent. The narrative was the same then “send ‘em home”. The leavers will tell you they voted to end Europe “making our laws” & to end migration & control our borders. I don’t know what percentage overall voted leave for that reason but theres an awful lot around my way. They are well pissed off with the arrogance of the EU as they see it & they are absolutely happy with their leave vote decision. However brexit ends up it will not be the brexit they voted for.
 
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I'm not splitting hairs. The implications of the point you made that a trade deal with india could lead to freedom of movement is ludicrous. So, pedantic maybe (depending how much you believe it could happen) but it's not splitting hairs.
Also nothing about trade deals that will have to be done with India who have already stated that any trade deal will have to include free movement of their people into UK.
How many Indians do you think would roll up to the UK in the first year after this 'freedom of movement' based trade deal?
 
I think you are splitting hairs. A good amount of EU migrant workers are “brought in” through labour agencies to do specific work from farms to Sports Direct. If you live in a leave area like me listen to leave voters around you or listen to local radio phone ins. They blame everything from NHS waiting lists to the housing shortage on migration. Some of the phone in callers get so racist they get cut off. The racists did not become racist overnight. Decades ago they were railing against migration from the Indian subcontinent. The narrative was the same then “send ‘em home”. The leavers will tell you they voted to end Europe “making our laws” & to end migration & control our borders. I don’t know what percentage overall voted leave for that reason but theres an awful lot around my way. They are well pissed off with the arrogance of the EU as they see it & they are absolutely happy with their leave vote decision. However brexit ends up it will not be the brexit they voted for.
No its not splitting hairs its visas issued mainly to companies strictly limiting numbers as opposed freedom of movement as we understand it in a EUropean context
 
On the other hand, we'd be able to go to live and work in India more easily. No more visa / work permit requirement for UK citizens, presumably. India's so big that the whole country could go there and as long as we spread ourselves about a bit, nobody would even notice really.
 
On the other hand, we'd be able to go to live and work in India more easily. No more visa / work permit requirement for UK citizens, presumably. India's so big that the whole country could go there and as long as we spread ourselves about a bit, nobody would even notice really.
Bollocks. Its the number of working visas that are to be made available.
 
On the other hand, we'd be able to go to live and work in India more easily. No more visa / work permit requirement for UK citizens, presumably. India's so big that the whole country could go there and as long as we spread ourselves about a bit, nobody would even notice really.

Disabuse yourself now of the notion that the future consists of symmetrical deals where we get what we give.
 
It's going to be however many are permitted, isn't it?
I would say so.
Granting permissions (i.e setting restrictions via visas/ green cards etc) is a bit different than implementing freedom of movement.
Its not a trivial difference and if pointing it out us splitting hairs then any discussion on brexit is pointless, seeing as it's one of the key negotiation factors.
 
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